November 13, 2003 - Bush Approval Drops Again In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Top Democrats Now Run Neck-And-Neck With President
For the first time in his presidency, George W. Bush gets a negative 47 - 50 percent approval rating in New Jersey, and several possible Democratic challengers are now running even with the Republican incumbent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

New Jersey voters gave President Bush a 67 - 29 percent approval in an April 1 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, but that score had dropped to 49 - 47 percent by September 25.

Bush is now tied with several Democratic presidential contenders in New Jersey:
  • Bush gets 46 percent to Connecticut Sen. Joseph Lieberman's 47 percent, down from a 49 - 44 percent lead September 25;
  • Bush 46 - 45 percent against Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry, down from 48 - 43 percent;
  • Bush 47 - 45 percent against former Gen. Wesley Clark, down from 47 - 42 percent;
  • Bush 48 - 45 percent over Missouri Congressman Richard Gephardt, compared to 48 - 44 percent;
  • Bush 48 - 45 percent over former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, down from 50 - 40 percent;
  • Bush 48 percent to New York Sen. Hillary Clinton's 47 percent, compared to 47 - 45 percent.
"Sen. Clinton and the three leading announced Democrats end up in a virtual dead heat in New Jersey when they are pitted one on one against President Bush," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Things probably will look a lot tougher for President Bush when the Democrats line up behind one contender," Richards added.

If Clinton runs, she gets 42 percent of the New Jersey Democratic vote, followed by 10 percent for Lieberman, 9 percent each for Clark, Kerry and Dean, and 5 percent for Gephardt. No other Democrat gets more than 3 percent.

With Clinton out of the race, Lieberman and Dean get 16 percent each, with 15 percent for Kerry, 11 percent for Clark and 9 percent for Gephardt. No other candidate breaks 6 percent, with 20 percent of Democrats are undecided.

"New Jersey Democrats have no clear favorite in the presidential race except for Sen. Clinton and she insists she's not running. Without her, no candidate gets 20 percent, with Dean, Kerry and Lieberman bunched at the front of the pack," Richards said.

From November 6 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,027 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent. The survey includes 351 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 5.2 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and nationally as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 47% 85% 19% 43% 51% 44% 50% Disapprove 50 11 77 55 48 51 49 DK/NA 3 4 4 3 2 4 1

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Approve 25% 43% 67% 44% 57% Disapprove 71 55 30 52 41 DK/NA 5 2 3 4 2



7. Now I'm going to name nine Democrats who might run for president in 2004. After I read all nine names, tell me which one you would most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004. Here are the choices... Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?
                        
                    Dem 


Lieberman 16% Kerry 15 Gephardt 9 Edwards 2 Dean 16 Sharpton 5 Moseley-Braun 6 Kucinich - Clark 11 DK/NA 20



8. Suppose New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton decides to run for president in 2004. Who would you most like to see the Democrats nominate for president in 2004? -- New York Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton, Connecticut Senator Joe Lieberman, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry, Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt, North Carolina Senator John Edwards, former Vermont Governor Howard Dean, the Reverend Al Sharpton, former Illinois Senator Carol Moseley-Braun, Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich or retired General Wesley Clark?
                       
                    Dem


Clinton 42% Lieberman 10 Kerry 9 Gephardt 5 Edwards 3 Dean 9 Sharpton 2 Moseley-Braun 1 Kucinich - Clark 9 DK/NA 11



9. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Wesley Clark the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Clark 45% 8% 74% 46% 41% 48% 44% Bush 47 91 16 44 53 42 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 6 1 7 7 4 8 8

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Clark 66% 50% 27% 49% 33% Bush 25 43 69 41 55 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 5 7 3 7 8



10. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Rodham Clinton the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Clinton 47% 6% 82% 46% 41% 52% 45% Bush 48 92 13 48 55 42 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 2 2 3 2 2 3 5

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Clinton 71% 48% 27% 49% 43% Bush 25 47 70 44 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 1 2 DK/NA - 3 2 4 3



11. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Joe Lieberman the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Lieberman 47% 6% 82% 47% 40% 53% 46% Bush 46 92 12 43 55 39 46 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 2 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 1 - DK/NA 4 2 4 7 2 6 7

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Lieberman 68% 50% 31% 47% 43% Bush 24 44 66 44 51 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 5 4 2 7 4



12. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Kerry 45% 7% 77% 48% 40% 50% 43% Bush 46 91 13 43 53 41 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 6 2 8 6 4 8 7

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Kerry 63% 51% 28% 47% 39% Bush 26 43 64 46 52 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 - 2 DK/NA 7 5 4 6 8



13. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Dick Gephardt the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Gephardt 45% 6% 77% 46% 41% 48% 42% Bush 48 91 14 44 54 42 49 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 5 2 5 7 3 7 7

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Gephardt 65% 47% 26% 47% 40% Bush 28 46 68 46 48 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 2 1 2 DK/NA 2 6 3 4 9



14. Suppose the general election for president were being held today, and the candidates were Howard Dean the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                   Union
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Dean 45% 7% 77% 45% 39% 49% 43% Bush 48 91 15 44 55 41 47 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 5 1 5 7 3 7 8

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Dean 66% 48% 27% 48% 37% Bush 24 45 67 44 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 4 6 4 6 6