October 6, 2004 - Debate Gives Kerry 3-Point Edge In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Voters Say Bush Acts More Like A Leader
Democratic challenger John Kerry has moved into a very narrow 49 - 46 percent lead over President George W. Bush among New Jersey likely voters, with 2 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 48 - 48 percent Bush-Kerry tie among likely voters, with 2 percent for Nader, in a September 21 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University.

Among registered voters backing President Bush, 82 percent say they are voting more for the President. Among Kerry supporters, 42 percent say they are voting more for the Democrat while 52 percent say they are voting more against Bush.

By a 52 - 40 percent margin, New Jersey voters say it was wrong for the United States to go to war in Iraq, little changed from previous polls.

"It's not safely in Sen. Kerry's pocket, but the skies are a little bluer - Democratic bluer - in New Jersey," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "While Kerry got a bump from the debate, New Jersey is still a squeaker. Memories of September 11 still lead voters to list terrorism as their number one issue, a concern that favors President Bush."

"The vote still looks like Bush vs. Bush. Most of Kerry's supporters aren't so much for putting the Democrat in the White House as they are for throwing out Bush," Carroll added.

Among the 76 percent of New Jersey voters who watched the first presidential debate:
  • 50 percent say they have a more favorable opinion of Kerry because of the debate, while 9 percent say less favorable and 40 percent say the debate did not change their opinion;
  • 7 percent have a more favorable opinion of Bush, while 26 percent say less favorable and 65 percent say the debate did not change their opinion.
Looking at presidential qualities, voters say 49 - 41 percent that Bush acts more like a leader than Kerry, and 52 - 35 percent that Bush is doing a better job explaining what he will do as President.

Given four choices, 31 percent of New Jersey voters list terrorism as the most important issue in the presidential race, followed by 29 percent who list the economy, 24 percent who list the situation in Iraq and 12 percent who list health care.

Asked who would do a better job on these issues, New Jersey voters say:
  • 52 - 38 percent that Bush would do a better job on terrorism;
  • 47 - 42 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy;
  • 49 - 42 percent that Bush would do a better job on Iraq;
  • 53 - 33 percent that Kerry would do a better job on health care.
From October 1 - 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,184 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 819 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote?

                                                SMONE   WLDN'T
                        JK      GWB     RN      ELSE    VOTE    DK/NA


Oct 6, 2004 44 42 1 1 - 12 Sep 21, 2004 47 43 3 1 - 6 Aug 25, 2004 49 39 4 1 1 7 Aug 5, 2004 49 36 6 1 2 6 Jun 23, 2004 46 40 7 - 1 6 May 20, 2004 46 43 5 1 1 5



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'.

                        LIKELY VOTERS PLUS LEANERS...................
                                                SMONE   WLDN'T
                        JK      GWB     RN      ELSE    VOTE    DK/NA


Oct 6, 2004 49 46 2 1 - 3 Sep 21, 2004 48 48 2 - - 2



TREND: If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president; the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?
                        Iraq    Econ    Terror  HlthCr  DK/NA


Oct 6, 2004 24 29 31 12 5 Sep 21, 2004 24 25 30 16 5



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        GWB     JK      DK/NA


Oct 6, 2004 33 53 14 Sep 21, 2004 36 55 9



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        GWB     JK      DK/NA


Oct 6, 2004 42 47 11 Sep 21, 2004 44 50 6



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        GWB     JK      DK/NA


Oct 6, 2004 49 42 9 Sep 21, 2004 49 44 7



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        GWB     JK      DK/NA


Oct 6, 2004 52 38 10 Sep 21, 2004 55 38 8



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say acts more like a leader -- John Kerry or George W. Bush?

                        JK      GWB     DK/NA


Oct 6, 2004 41 49 10 Sep 21, 2004 37 54 10



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say has done a better job making it clear what he would do if he were elected president - John Kerry or George W. Bush?

                        JK      GWB     DK/NA


Oct 6, 2004 35 52 13 Sep 21, 2004 30 60 10



TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Right   Wrong   DK/NA


Oct 6, 2004 40 52 7 Sep 21, 2004 40 55 5



1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Kerry 44% 10% 82% 42% 44% 45% 35% Bush 42 81 9 37 46 38 54 Nader 1 - 1 3 1 1 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 12 8 7 17 8 15 11

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Kerry 57% 46% 35% 43% 39% Bush 27 41 49 41 50 Nader 1 1 3 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 4 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 11 12 12 14 9

No Coll Coll PRES VOTE 2000 Degree Degree Lib Mod Con Gore Bush

Kerry 42% 48% 74% 45% 22% 86% 7% Bush 42 41 18 41 64 7 79 Nader 1 2 3 1 1 1 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 13 8 5 13 12 6 13

Age in years............... Annual HsHold income......... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ <30 30-50 50-100 >100K Kerry 54% 41% 41% 43% 54% 45% 42% 42% Bush 31 49 47 40 28 48 45 48 Nader 2 1 2 1 1 1 2 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - - DK/NA 12 9 10 16 16 6 10 9



1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'

                        Likely 
                        Voters 
                        
Kerry                   49% 
Bush                    46
Nader                    2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -  
DK/NA                    3






4. (If "Nader" q1 or lean to Nader) What if Ralph Nader were not running? If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? This table includes 'Leaners'.

Recalculated Bush vs Kerry matchup without Nader among likely voters.

                        Likely 
                        Voters 
                       
Kerry                   49%
Bush                    46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -
DK/NA                    4




2. (If candidate choice on q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                        Kerry   Bush
                        Vtr q1  Vtr q1


Made up 88% 92% Might change 12 7 DK/NA - 1



3a. (If "Kerry" q1) Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?

                        Kerry 
                        Vtr q1


For Kerry 42% Against Bush 52 DK/NA 7



3b. (If "Bush" q1) Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?

                        Bush
                        Vtr q1


For Bush 82% Against Kerry 14 DK/NA 4



5. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Favorable 38% 75% 8% 33% 41% 36% 48% Unfavorable 39 10 71 37 39 39 33 Mixed 20 14 19 27 18 23 14 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 2 2 1 4 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 1



6. Is your opinion of John Kerry favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Favorable 35% 8% 66% 34% 34% 36% 31% Unfavorable 31 64 6 23 33 30 39 Mixed 27 23 23 33 28 25 26 Hvn't hrd enough 6 5 4 9 5 7 3 REFUSED 1 - 1 2 1 2 2



7. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president; the situation in Iraq the economy, terrorism, or health care?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Iraq 24% 18% 29% 26% 23% 24% 23% Economy 29 19 36 32 32 26 20 Terrorism 31 50 16 28 32 29 39 Health care 12 8 17 9 9 14 13 DK/NA 5 5 3 5 4 6 5



8. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 33% 64% 7% 28% 33% 33% 41% Kerry 53 19 88 57 55 51 43 DK/NA 14 17 5 15 12 16 16



9. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 42% 79% 9% 38% 45% 39% 50% Kerry 47 15 84 47 46 48 35 DK/NA 11 7 7 15 9 13 15



10. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 49% 84% 15% 46% 52% 45% 57% Kerry 42 12 78 41 41 43 32 DK/NA 9 4 7 13 7 11 11



11. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 52% 85% 19% 52% 55% 48% 61% Kerry 38 11 73 35 35 41 24 DK/NA 10 5 8 13 9 11 15



12. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say acts more like a leader - John Kerry or George W. Bush?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Kerry 41% 11% 69% 44% 41% 41% 32% Bush 49 83 21 44 51 48 59 DK/NA 10 5 10 12 9 11 9



13. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate would you say has done a better job making it clear what he would do if he were elected president - John Kerry or George W. Bush?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Kerry 35% 12% 62% 32% 33% 37% 29% Bush 52 82 24 51 54 50 56 DK/NA 13 6 14 17 13 13 15



14. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Right thing 40% 70% 16% 35% 42% 39% 47% Wrong thing 52 21 81 55 51 53 45 DK/NA 7 9 3 10 7 8 7



15. Did you happen to watch the nationally televised presidential debate Thursday evening, September 30th?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Yes 76% 80% 76% 73% 76% 75% 78% No 24 20 24 27 24 25 22 DK/NA - - - - - - -



16. (If "yes" q15) How has your opinion of John Kerry been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of John Kerry more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much?

                        WATCHED DEBATE Q15....................................
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


More favorable 50% 26% 75% 48% 51% 48% 45% Less favorable 9 15 5 9 10 9 11 Not changed 40 58 20 42 39 41 43 DK/NA 1 1 - 1 1 1 1



17. (If "yes" q15) How has your opinion of George Bush been affected by the debate? Is your opinion of George Bush more favorable, less favorable, or has it not changed much?

                        WATCHED DEBATE Q15....................................
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


More favorable 7% 12% 4% 5% 8% 6% 11% Less favorable 26 10 41 31 22 31 21 Not changed 65 77 54 61 68 62 64 DK/NA 2 1 1 2 2 1 4



18. How likely is it that you will watch the 2nd presidential debate on Friday evening, October 8th? Very likely, somewhat likely, or not likely?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Very likely 68% 69% 70% 64% 65% 70% 67% Smwht likely 20 21 17 24 21 19 17 Not likely 11 9 11 12 13 9 17 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 1 -