April 24, 2002 - Republican Challengers Close Gap Against Torricelli, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Torricelli, Gov. McGreevey Stuck With So-So Approvals
Republican challengers, especially State Sen. Diane Allen, have closed the gap in their bid to unseat Democratic Sen. Robert Torricelli, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. No matter who runs on the Republican line, only 16 percent of New Jersey voters say they definitely will vote for Torricelli, while 33 percent say they probably will vote for him; 14 percent say they probably will vote against him, and 21 percent say they definitely will vote against him.

Results among New Jersey registered voters show:
  • Torricelli over Allen 44 - 32 percent, compared to 49 - 30 percent in a March 6 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University;
  • Torricelli over businessman Douglas Forrester 47 - 29 percent, compared to 53 - 26 percent March 6;
  • Torricelli over State Sen. John Matheussen 46 - 31 percent, compared to 52 - 28 percent March 6.
Before he dropped out of the race, Essex County Executive James Treffinger was trailing Torricelli 45 - 29 percent.

"Sen. Torricelli is ahead, but he's hearing footsteps as the all-but-unknown Republican challengers close the gap," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Once this goes to one on one, it could be a real horse race."

"Most voters know enough about Torricelli to form an opinion and the opinion is lukewarm at best," Carroll added.

"If President Bush, who has a 77-percent approval rating, campaigns for the challenger, it could be lights out for The Torch."

Torricelli gets a 37 - 34 percent approval rating, with 29 percent undecided, compared to his 41 - 26 percent approval in the March 6 Quinnipiac University poll. Sen. Jon Corzine's approval is 48 - 20 percent, with 32 percent undecided.

By a 31 - 25 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Torricelli, with 24 percent

mixed and 18 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings for possible challengers are:
                Favorable     Unfavorable     Mixed     No Opinion
Allen            10             2               7        80
Forrester         6             2               6        85
Matheussen        8             2               9        80



Because of the now-ended federal investigation into Torricelli's fundraising activities, 6 percent of New Jersey voters are more likely to vote for him, while 28 percent are less likely and 59 percent say the issue will not influence their vote. McGreevey Approval

By a 40 - 32 percent margin, with 28 percent undecided New Jersey voters approve of the job Gov. James McGreevey is doing.

This is down from a 46 - 22 percent approval in the March 6 Quinnipiac University poll.

"The tough budget news seems to be taking a toll on New Jersey's new governor," Carroll said.

From April 17 - 22, Quinnipiac University surveyed 837 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way James McGreevey is handling his job as Governor?
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Sth   Cen   Nrth


Approve 40% 28% 50% 37% 39% 41% 32% 38% 46% Disapprove 32 50 19 30 31 32 40 35 25 DK/NA 28 22 31 33 30 27 28 27 30

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Torricelli is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Sth   Cen   Nrth


Approve 37% 31% 48% 29% 38% 36% 37% 34% 39% Disapprove 34 48 18 41 42 27 33 35 33 DK/NA 29 22 35 30 20 36 30 31 28

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Sth   Cen   Nrth


Approve 48% 36% 61% 44% 51% 46% 47% 45% 51% Disapprove 20 31 9 23 25 15 22 24 16 DK/NA 32 33 30 33 24 39 31 31 33

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Sth   Cen   Nrth


Approve 77% 93% 64% 74% 79% 75% 75% 82% 74% Disapprove 18 5 29 20 17 20 21 11 21 DK/NA 5 2 8 6 5 6 4 7 5

7. Is your opinion of businessman Douglas Forrester favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Sth   Cen   Nrth


Favorable 6% 8% 4% 6% 7% 5% 5% 5% 8% Unfavorable 2 2 2 3 2 2 1 3 2 Mixed 6 9 4 7 5 7 5 6 7 Hvn't hrd enough 85 79 90 84 84 85 89 85 83 REFUSED 1 2 - - 1 1 - 2 1

8. Is your opinion of State Senator John Matheussen favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Sth   Cen   Nrth


Favorable 8% 8% 9% 6% 9% 7% 13% 6% 6% Unfavorable 2 2 2 2 3 1 4 2 1 Mixed 9 9 11 7 8 10 12 8 8 Hvn't hrd enough 80 79 78 85 78 81 71 82 84 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 - - 2 1

9. Is your opinion of State Senator Diane Allen favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Sth   Cen   Nrth


Favorable 10% 6% 15% 8% 10% 10% 19% 7% 6% Unfavorable 2 3 1 2 2 1 3 3 0 Mixed 7 8 6 6 8 6 19 4 2 Hvn't hrd enough 80 82 77 83 77 82 58 85 90 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 1 1

10. Is your opinion of United States Senator Robert Torricelli favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Sth   Cen   Nrth


Favorable 31% 25% 40% 24% 34% 28% 31% 28% 32% Unfavorable 25 38 11 31 33 19 24 26 25 Mixed 24 20 25 30 19 29 24 27 23 Hvn't hrd enough 18 14 23 14 12 23 18 17 19 REFUSED 2 3 - 1 3 1 2 2 1

12. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Torricelli the Democrat, and Douglas Forrester the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Sth   Cen   Nrth


Torricelli 47% 20% 79% 38% 46% 47% 45% 46% 48% Forrester 29 67 4 25 37 23 27 33 28

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 1 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 1 2 7 4 4 6 4 3 DK/NA 19 10 15 28 12 25 20 17 20

13. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Torricelli the Democrat, and John Matheussen the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Sth   Cen   Nrth


Torricelli 46% 20% 77% 37% 44% 48% 41% 49% 47% Matheussen 31 64 5 30 40 23 34 29 30

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 - 2 2 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 7 3 4 4 3 3 DK/NA 18 11 15 24 11 24 20 17 18

14. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Torricelli the Democrat, and Diane Allen the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Sth   Cen   Nrth


Torricelli 44% 21% 69% 38% 44% 43% 39% 46% 45% Allen 32 63 11 29 39 27 39 30 30

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 3 - 1 1 2 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 5 3 6 5 5 5 4 5 DK/NA 18 8 17 26 11 23 16 19 19

15. How likely are you to vote to re-elect Robert Torricelli for Senator - Do you think you will definitely vote for him, probably vote for him, probably vote against him, or definitely vote against him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Sth   Cen   Nrth


Definitely vote for 16% 4% 32% 9% 15% 17% 14% 19% 16% Probably vote for 33 21 41 33 32 34 31 30 35 Probably vote against 14 24 7 14 16 13 12 17 14 Definitely vote against 21 40 4 23 27 15 20 21 21 DK/NA 16 11 16 21 10 21 23 14 14

16. Have you heard or read anything about federal investigations into New Jersey Senator Robert Torricelli's 1996 campaign fundraising?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Sth   Cen   Nrth


Yes 63% 65% 57% 72% 71% 56% 55% 71% 63% No 36 34 41 27 28 42 43 28 36 DK/NA 1 - 1 2 1 1 2 1 1



17. The U.S. attorney's office has ended its investigations of Senator Robert Torricelli's 1996 campaign fundraising activities and decided not to indict Senator Torricelli.

How will the federal investigations into Robert Torricelli's 1996 campaign fundraising activities influence your vote for Senator this year? Will they make you more likely to vote for Torricelli, less likely to vote for Torricelli, or won't they have much effect one way or the other?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Men   Wom   Sth   Cen   Nrth


More likely 6% 3% 8% 5% 6% 6% 7% 4% 6% Less likely 28 41 17 32 32 25 28 30 27 Won't have effect 59 53 68 57 57 61 57 60 60 DK/NA 7 2 6 6 5 8 8 6 7