August 8, 2002 - Ethics Probe Leaves Torricelli In NJ Horse Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; DEM Defectors Not Moving To GOP Challenger
The ethics issue continues to take its toll on New Jersey Sen. Robert Torricelli who has lost support and now is locked in a dead heat with Republican challenger Douglas Forrester, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Torricelli and Forrester each get 37 percent, with 19 percent undecided.

In a June 19 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University, the Democratic incumbent had a 44 - 36 percent lead over Forrester among registered voters, with 16 percent undecided.

Torricelli's approval rating has plunged to a negative 28 - 49 percent, his lowest ever.

Democrats back Torricelli 65 - 10 percent, while Republicans back Forrester 77 - 10 percent. New Jersey's pivotal independent voters back Forrester 37 - 27 percent.

"A lot of New Jersey voters say they don't want to vote for Sen. Torricelli. Almost half of them say he doesn't have the honesty and integrity to be their Senator," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Women, independents and especially Democrats have defected from his campaign in significant numbers, but only a handful overall have gone to Forrester.

"Fifty-six percent of voters who say they've heard about the Senate Ethics Committee action admonishing Torricelli say it makes them less likely to vote for him."

"The committee's decision that 'severely admonished' Torricelli is a serious blow to his campaign, but not a knockout," Richards said. "It's up to Forrester now to give New Jersey voters a reason to want to vote for him."

Torricelli's favorability rating is a negative 15 - 36 percent; 25 percent of voters have a mixed opinion of their Senator and 22 percent say they don't know enough to form an opinion.

Forrester gets an 11 - 6 percent favorability rating, with 8 percent mixed and 72 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion, virtually unchanged from Quinnipiac University's June 19 poll.

By a 59 - 22 percent margin, voters say Torricelli has the "experience to serve effectively as a U.S. Senator." Forrester has the experience, voters say 29 - 15 percent, with 55 percent undecided, unchanged from June 19.

Forrester has the "honesty and integrity to serve effectively as a U.S. Senator," voters say 35 - 10 percent, with 55 percent undecided, unchanged from June 19.

Torricelli gets a negative 29 - 45 percent score on honesty and integrity, with 25 percent undecided. Voters gave him a 37 - 37 split on this quality June 19.

By a 50 - 36 percent margin, New Jersey voters want the Democrats to win control of the U.S. Senate. Control of the Senate is "extremely important," 30 percent say, while 39 percent say it is "fairly important." Among those who say control of the Senate is important to their vote, 53 percent want Democrats to control the Senate, while 39 percent want Republicans to control the Senate.

From July 31 - August 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 879 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and nationally as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way James McGreevey is handling his job as Governor?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 42% 32% 54% 37% 46% 38% 44% Disapprove 34 49 19 41 33 34 37 DK/NA 25 19 28 22 21 28 19

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Approve 49% 44% 39% 43% 32% 42% 40% Disapprove 22 34 39 34 38 39 27 DK/NA 29 22 23 23 30 19 32



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Torricelli is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 28% 18% 36% 25% 26% 29% 32% Disapprove 49 63 34 56 54 45 42 DK/NA 23 19 30 19 20 27 26

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Approve 34% 23% 24% 31% 30% 24% 34% Disapprove 44 56 52 40 46 64 30 DK/NA 22 21 23 29 24 12 36



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 49% 40% 56% 51% 55% 45% 48% Disapprove 19 33 12 17 22 17 20 DK/NA 31 27 32 32 23 38 32

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Approve 52% 52% 52% 43% 47% 55% 41% Disapprove 19 22 19 16 19 23 15 DK/NA 29 26 30 41 34 22 43



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 61% 90% 44% 60% 64% 58% 52% Disapprove 32 8 48 32 30 34 42 DK/NA 7 2 9 8 6 8 6

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Approve 51% 56% 71% 61% 69% 62% 60% Disapprove 41 39 24 30 22 31 34 DK/NA 8 5 5 9 10 8 7



5. How much attention have you been paying to the campaign for Senator? A lot, some, only a little, or none at all?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


A lot 18% 20% 18% 17% 21% 15% 18% Some 26 32 25 25 27 26 23 Only a little 33 30 32 36 32 34 31 None at all 22 18 25 22 19 24 28 DK/NA 1 1 1 - 1 - -

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

A lot 22% 21% 17% 11% 15% 27% 6% Some 25 27 33 19 28 35 15 Only a little 35 35 33 33 29 28 42 None at all 16 17 17 35 27 10 37 DK/NA 2 - - 1 - - -



7. Is your opinion of businessman Douglas Forrester favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Favorable 11% 25% 3% 11% 15% 8% 11% Unfavorable 6 2 9 5 5 7 9 Mixed 8 12 7 6 7 9 10 Hvn't hrd enough 72 60 79 77 71 73 68 REFUSED 1 2 2 1 1 2 2

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Favorable 13% 8% 14% 8% 17% 17% 2% Unfavorable 6 8 5 9 3 8 5 Mixed 10 10 10 6 5 10 7 Hvn't hrd enough 71 73 70 74 73 63 85 REFUSED - 1 2 3 2 2 1



10. Is your opinion of United States Senator Robert Torricelli favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Favorable 15% 9% 21% 14% 16% 15% 16% Unfavorable 36 55 17 41 41 33 35 Mixed 25 19 29 26 22 27 25 Hvn't hrd enough 22 15 30 19 19 24 23 REFUSED 2 2 3 - 2 1 1

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Favorable 17% 13% 14% 19% 17% 14% 18% Unfavorable 28 39 42 31 38 53 14 Mixed 29 27 23 20 24 25 26 Hvn't hrd enough 24 20 18 26 21 8 40 REFUSED 2 2 2 3 1 1 1



12. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Robert Torricelli the Democrat and Douglas Forrester the Republican for whom would you vote?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Torricelli 37% 10% 65% 27% 35% 38% 39% Forrester 37 77 10 37 43 31 27

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 4 4 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 6 3 7 7 3 7 9 DK/NA 19 10 17 25 15 22 21

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Torricelli 55% 33% 32% 35% 35% 30% 47% Forrester 28 37 47 34 38 48 20

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 1 3 1 4 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 6 4 8 7 4 8 DK/NA 15 20 17 20 19 14 24



11. Do you think Douglas Forrester has the experience to serve effectively as a United States Senator or not?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Yes 29% 48% 16% 31% 35% 25% 23% No 15 7 22 12 18 14 19 DK/NA 55 45 62 57 47 62 58

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Yes 18% 30% 26% 35% 34% 34% 23% No 24 16 11 17 10 17 13 DK/NA 58 54 63 49 56 49 63



12. Do you think Robert Torricelli has the experience to serve effectively as a United States Senator or not?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Yes 59% 52% 65% 60% 63% 55% 60% No 22 33 12 23 22 22 16 DK/NA 19 14 24 16 16 22 23

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Yes 71% 57% 59% 56% 55% 61% 56% No 19 24 26 16 23 30 12 DK/NA 11 19 15 28 22 9 32



13. Do you think Douglas Forrester has the honesty and integrity to serve effectively as a United States Senator or not?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Yes 35% 58% 20% 35% 41% 30% 32% No 10 4 17 7 10 10 9 DK/NA 55 38 63 58 49 60 59

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Yes 33% 37% 41% 27% 35% 42% 25% No 17 8 6 17 5 7 15 DK/NA 50 55 53 56 60 51 60



14. Do you think Robert Torricelli has the honesty and integrity to serve effectively as a United States Senator or not?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Yes 29% 20% 42% 24% 26% 32% 29% No 45 63 26 53 51 41 39 DK/NA 25 17 32 22 23 27 32

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Yes 44% 24% 24% 35% 27% 22% 41% No 36 49 52 37 47 62 23 DK/NA 20 27 24 28 26 16 37



15. And if the election were today, would you want to see the Republican Party or the Democratic Party win control of the United States Senate?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Republican Party 36% 93% 2% 35% 45% 29% 28% Democratic Party 50 4 92 41 43 56 59 DK/NA 14 3 6 24 12 15 13

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Republican Party 20% 37% 50% 35% 38% 43% 26% Democratic Party 74 49 35 52 44 44 59 DK/NA 6 14 15 13 18 13 15



16. How important will control of the United States Senate be in influencing your vote for Senator - extremely important, fairly important, or not that important?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Extremely important 30% 37% 35% 20% 34% 27% 33% Fairly important 39 40 40 38 34 43 35 Not that important 27 20 21 40 29 26 27 DK/NA 3 3 4 2 3 3 4

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Extremely important 35% 32% 26% 32% 26% 38% 20% Fairly important 44 42 43 35 31 36 44 Not that important 18 22 27 32 40 23 34 DK/NA 4 4 3 1 3 2 2



17. How much have you heard or read about Robert Torricelli's charge that his opponent, Douglas Forrester, made his fortune in business as head of Benecard, a company that unfairly inflated the price of medications in prescription benefit plans they administered? - A lot, some, only a little, or nothing at all?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


A lot 12% 13% 11% 13% 15% 10% 11% Some 20 20 22 20 19 21 21 Only a little 26 29 24 24 26 26 30 Nothing at all 39 36 41 41 38 40 36 DK/NA 2 1 3 1 2 2 2

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

A lot 6% 15% 12% 10% 15% 17% 6% Some 25 21 19 17 18 27 12 Only a little 25 26 33 22 24 24 28 Nothing at all 41 36 36 48 39 31 52 DK/NA 2 2 - 2 4 1 2



18. Torricelli says as president of BeneCard, Forrester made excessive profits by running up the prices of prescription drugs for working people. Forrester denies the charge and says giant pharmaceutical companies, which have contributed heavily to the Torricelli campaign, are responsible for driving up drug prices.

Who do you believe - Torricelli or Forrester?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Torricelli 18% 9% 30% 13% 11% 24% 21% Forrester 34 59 16 34 41 28 30 DK/NA 48 32 53 53 48 48 50

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Torricelli 26% 14% 17% 22% 16% 15% 24% Forrester 27 35 40 31 36 46 19 DK/NA 47 50 43 47 48 39 56



19. How much have you heard or read about the Senate Ethics Committee's decision this week that "severely admonished" Sen. Robert Torricelli for his dealings with convicted businessman David Chang, specifically that the senator violated the Senate gifts rule. A lot, some, only a little, or nothing at all?

                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


A lot 34% 45% 27% 34% 41% 29% 37% Some 23 24 22 24 22 23 19 Only a little 18 16 19 17 16 18 20 Nothing at all 23 13 28 23 17 27 23 DK/NA 3 2 4 2 3 2 2

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

A lot 29% 43% 34% 24% 33% 60% - Some 21 23 32 14 23 40 - Only a little 12 16 15 28 16 - 44 Nothing at all 34 15 17 30 26 - 56 DK/NA 4 3 1 4 2 - -



20. How will the Senate Ethics Committee's decision that "severely admonished" Senator Robert Torricelli for his dealings with convicted businessman David Chang influence your vote for senator? Will it make you less likely to vote for him or doesn't it influence your vote?

IF "less likely" -- Would that be much less likely or only somewhat less likely?
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Much less likely 30% 39% 14% 38% 33% 27% 25% Smwht less likely 15 16 13 19 14 16 15 Doesn't influence vote 45 35 62 36 46 45 50 DK/NA 10 9 11 7 7 12 10

Q19 HEARD/READ SEN ETHICS COM Philly A lot A little Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Some None

Much less likely 20% 33% 31% 26% 33% 41% 15% Smwht less likely 14 14 18 18 14 15 17 Doesn't influence vote 52 43 44 46 45 38 55 DK/NA 14 10 8 10 8 5 12