October 7, 2002 - Launtenberg Inches Ahead In Jersey Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 54% Say Democratic Candidate Swap Was Unfair
Former Sen. Frank Lautenberg leads Republican Douglas Forrester 49 - 45 percent among likely voters in New Jersey's U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This tally includes likely voters who are leaning toward one of the candidates.

Democratic likely voters back Lautenberg 86 - 11 percent, while Republicans back Forrester 88 - 9 percent. Independent likely voters split 46 - 45 percent.

By a 54 - 40 percent margin, New Jersey likely voters say the Democratic party's candidate substitution of Lautenberg for Sen. Robert Torricelli is "unfair."

But only 30 percent of voters say they can't vote for the new Democratic candidate because of last week's switch.

"The new Democratic candidate has turned the New Jersey Senate race into a whole new ball game that will be decided by independent voters. New Jersey voters don't like the way Sen. Lautenberg got on the ballot, but they are glad to see tarnished Sen. Robert Torricelli gone. And one in five of those voters who say last minute candidate switch is unfair say they will vote for Lautenberg anyway," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

While 63 percent of the likely voters backing the Republican say theirs is a pro- Forrester vote, 32 percent say their vote is mainly against Lautenberg. Among Lautenberg's backers, 67 percent say they are mainly for the Democrat, while 29 percent are mainly against Forrester.

Lautenberg's favorability rating is 46 - 26 percent; 18 percent of voters have a mixed opinion and 9 percent say they don't know enough to form an opinion.

Forrester gets a 27 - 28 percent favorability rating, with 17 percent mixed and 28 percent who say they don't know enough to form an opinion.

"The whole Torricelli mess has made Forrester better known. But his negatives have gone up; he has lost ground with independents and 31 percent of voters say he is too conservative for New Jersey," Richards said.

Control of the U.S. Senate is the most important factor in deciding how they vote, 24 percent of New Jersey voters say, while 53 percent say control of the Senate is one of many factors and 22 percent say it doesn't have much effect on how they vote.

Forrester is too conservative, 31 percent of voters say; 4 percent say he is too liberal and 38 percent say he is "about right" on the political spectrum.

Lautenberg is too liberal, 30 percent of voters say; 3 percent say he is too conservative and 51 percent say he is "about right."

To keep Democrats from losing control of the U.S. Senate, 36 percent of New Jersey voters say they are more likely to vote for Lautenberg, while 19 percent are less likely and 42 percent say control of the Senate has little effect on how they vote.

From October 2 - 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 514 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.3 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and nationally as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks.
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way James McGreevey is handling his job as Governor?
                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 44% 21% 68% 39% 42% 47% 50% Disapprove 43 68 23 43 47 38 38 DK/NA 13 11 9 18 12 15 12

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Robert Torricelli is handling his job as United States Senator?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 19% 7% 30% 18% 15% 23% 15% Disapprove 75 89 62 77 80 69 76 DK/NA 6 4 8 5 5 7 8

3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 52% 28% 73% 50% 47% 57% 57% Disapprove 26 42 11 27 31 21 25 DK/NA 22 30 15 22 22 22 19

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Approve 62% 93% 32% 65% 65% 58% 60% Disapprove 34 6 62 30 31 36 34 DK/NA 5 1 6 5 4 5 6

6. Is your opinion of businessman Douglas Forrester favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Favorable 27% 54% 10% 23% 32% 22% 21% Unfavorable 28 6 49 28 25 31 30 Mixed 17 20 11 19 18 16 17 Hvn't hrd enough 28 20 31 30 26 31 32 REFUSED - - - - - - -

7. Is your opinion of former United States Senator Frank Lautenberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Favorable 46% 17% 77% 42% 42% 50% 44% Unfavorable 26 51 6 27 36 17 23 Mixed 18 22 11 20 13 23 22 Hvn't hrd enough 9 10 6 10 8 9 11 REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1 -

8. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Frank Lautenberg the Democrat and Douglas Forrester the Republican for whom would you vote?

(If undecided/wouldn't vote/someone else) As of today, do you lean more to Lautenberg or Forrester?

                      LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Leaners)......................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Lautenberg 49 9 86 46 41 56 53 Forrester 45% 88% 11% 45% 52% 39% 41%

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 - 1 - 1 DK/NA 4 2 2 7 5 4 3

9. Are you very sure about voting for (candidate choice); or might you change your mind before the election?

                          LIKELY................
                          Lautenberg  Forrester
                          supporters  supporters


Very sure 83% 84% Might change 17 14 DK/NA - 2

11. Would you say that your choice is more a vote for (Your Candidate Q9), or more a vote against (Other Candidate Q9)?

                          LIKELY................
                          Lautenberg  Forrester
                          supporters  supporters


For your candidate 67% 63% Against other candidate 29 32 DK/NA 4 4

12. If Frank Lautenberg loses the election, the Democrats could lose control of the Senate. Does this make you more likely to vote for Lautenberg, less likely to vote for Lautenberg, or doesn't it have much effect one way or the other?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


More likely 36% 5% 67% 32% 27% 46% 35% Less likely 19 47 5 11 22 16 16 Not much effect 42 44 27 55 47 36 47 DK/NA 3 4 2 3 4 2 2

13. How important will control of the United States Senate be in influencing your vote for Senator: Is it the most important factor, is it one factor among many, or doesn't it have much effect on your vote?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Most important factor 24% 31% 27% 17% 21% 27% 20% One factor among many 53 56 62 45 58 49 56 Doesn't have much Effect 22 12 11 37 21 22 23 DK/NA 1 - 1 1 - 2 -

14. Do you think Frank Lautenberg is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Too liberal 30% 58% 6% 30% 40% 20% 24% Too conservative 3 1 3 5 1 4 2 About right 51 17 81 48 46 54 52 DK/NA 17 23 10 17 12 21 22

15. Do you think Douglas Forrester is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Too liberal 4% 2% 8% 2% 3% 5% 5% Too conservative 31 9 49 31 28 34 32 About right 38 71 14 36 44 32 32 DK/NA 27 17 28 32 25 29 31

16. Do you think it is fair or unfair for the Democrats to change Senate candidates about a month before the election?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Fair 40% 17% 60% 38% 34% 45% 36% Unfair 54 77 32 55 61 47 55 DK/NA 7 5 8 7 5 8 9

17. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement..? I can't vote for Frank Lautenberg because the Democrats changed candidates about a month before the election.

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Agree 30% 44% 15% 34% 37% 23% 29% Disagree 64 41 84 62 57 70 65 DK/NA 6 15 - 4 6 6 6

18. If Frank Lautenberg is elected Senator do you expect that he will serve out his full 6 year term or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Yes 56% 34% 81% 49% 52% 60% 51% No 35 53 16 41 41 30 41 DK/NA 9 13 3 9 8 11 9