October 22, 2002 - Lautenberg Widens Lead In Jersey Senate Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Lead Grows Among Independents And Women Voters
Former Sen. Frank Lautenberg has opened a 52 - 43 percent lead over Republican Douglas Forrester among likely voters in New Jersey's U.S. Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This tally includes likely voters who are leaning toward one of the candidates.

In an October 7 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pee-ack) University, Lautenberg was ahead 49 - 45 percent.

Democratic likely voters back Lautenberg 93 - 5 percent, while Republicans back Forrester 89 - 7 percent. Independent likely voters back Lautenberg 55 - 37 percent, up from a 46 - 45 percent split October 7.

The Democrat also has widened his lead among women voters from 56 - 39 percent October 7 to 59 - 35 percent today.

" Sen. Lautenberg has strengthened his lead, but Doug Forrester is still in there fighting. Forrester finally has overcome his name recognition problem and in the process New Jersey voters have gotten a more favorable impression of him. The question is whether it is too little, too late for the GOP candidate." said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The large gender gap in the race, with Lautenberg the heavy favorite among women, suggests Forrester is being hurt by his abortion views and his position that current gun control laws are adequate. Lautenberg also is opening a lead among independent voters, who may well make the crucial difference in this campaign," Richards added.

While 62 percent of the likely voters backing the Republican say theirs is a pro- Forrester vote, 29 percent say their vote is mainly against Lautenberg. Among Lautenberg's backers, 74 percent say they are mainly for the Democrat, while 21 percent are mainly against Forrester.

Forrester gets a 34 - 25 percent favorability rating, with 19 percent mixed and 21 percent who say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. This is an improvement on his 27 - 28 percent favorability in Quinnipiac University's October 7 poll.

Lautenberg's favorability rating is 45 - 30 percent; 19 percent of voters have a mixed opinion and 5 percent say they don't know enough about him to form an opinion. This compares to a 46 - 26 percent favorability October 7.

Forrester is too conservative, 30 percent of voters say; 4 percent say he is too liberal and 43 percent say he is "about right" on the political spectrum, up from 38 percent who said he was "about right" October 7.

Lautenberg is too liberal, 33 percent of voters say; 3 percent say he is too conservative and 50 percent say he is "about right," similar to the October 7 finding.

By a 54 - 41 percent margin, New Jersey likely voters say the Democratic party's candidate substitution of Lautenberg for Sen. Robert Torricelli is "unfair," identical to the October 7 finding.

From October 16 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 603 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut and nationally as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks.

2. Is your opinion of Douglas Forrester favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Favorable 34% 65% 9% 31% 41% 26% 32% Unfavorable 25 4 41 29 24 26 32 Mixed 19 14 23 17 16 21 19 Hvn't hrd enough 21 14 26 21 18 24 15 REFUSED 2 3 - 2 1 2 2

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 28% 31% 48% 29% 36% Unfavorable 31 24 20 31 20 Mixed 18 22 15 16 20 Hvn't hrd enough 24 21 15 22 24 REFUSED - 3 2 2 -



3. Is your opinion of Frank Lautenberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Favorable 45% 11% 75% 49% 42% 48% 48% Unfavorable 30 67 5 20 39 21 29 Mixed 19 18 16 23 17 21 19 Hvn't hrd enough 5 4 4 4 1 10 3 REFUSED 1 1 - 3 1 1 2 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Favorable 52% 46% 29% 57% 40% Unfavorable 18 26 49 27 33 Mixed 22 22 17 12 19 Hvn't hrd enough 7 4 4 4 8 REFUSED - 2 2 - -



4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Frank Lautenberg the Democrat and Douglas Forrester the Republican for whom would you vote?

(If undecided/someone else/wouldn't vote)As of today, do you lean more to Lautenberg or Forrester?

                      LIKELY VOTERS(Includes Leaners)........................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Lautenberg 52% 7% 93% 55% 45% 59% 59% Forrester 43 89 5 37 52 35 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - - - DK/NA 4 3 1 8 3 5 5 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Lautenberg 67% 55% 31% 62% 45% Forrester 29 42 67 36 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - - - DK/NA 3 3 2 - 13



5. Are you very sure about voting for (candidate choice) or might you change your mind before the election?

                          LIKELY................
                          Lautenberg  Forrester
                          supporters  supporters


Very sure 82% 87% Might change 16 13 DK/NA 2 -



6. Would you say that your choice is more a vote for (candidate choice), or more a vote against (other candidate)?

                          LIKELY................
                          Lautenberg  Forrester
                          supporters  supporters


For candidate 74% 62% Against other candidate 21 29 DK/NA 5 9



9. How important will control of the United States Senate be in influencing your vote for Senator: is it the most important factor, is it one factor among many, or doesn't it have much effect on your vote?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Most important factor 26% 31% 26% 20% 27% 25% 23% One factor among many 58 54 65 55 55 60 62 Not much effect 15 14 9 25 17 14 15 DK/NA - 1 - 1 - - - Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Most important factor 19% 29% 23% 24% 32% One factor among many 65 52 65 61 53 Not much effect 16 18 12 15 15 DK/NA - 1 - - -



10. Do you think Frank Lautenberg is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Too liberal 33% 67% 5% 28% 43% 23% 32% Too conservative 3 2 4 3 3 3 3 About right 50 19 79 52 46 54 55 DK/NA 14 12 11 17 8 19 9 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Too liberal 24% 31% 45% 30% 36% Too conservative 1 4 2 5 3 About right 57 52 39 52 48 DK/NA 17 13 13 13 13



10. Do you think Douglas Forrester is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Too liberal 4% 3% 7% 4% 5% 4% 6% Too conservative 30 9 49 34 29 31 31 About right 43 77 17 34 50 36 38 DK/NA 22 11 27 27 16 29 25

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Too liberal 4% 4% 3% 6% 5% Too conservative 24 35 24 37 27 About right 40 42 55 34 45 DK/NA 32 19 18 23 23



11. Do you think it is fair or unfair for the Democrats to have changed Senate candidates about a month before the election?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..........................................
                                                                     Union
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    HouseHld


Fair 41% 15% 62% 44% 35% 47% 44% Unfair 54 83 32 48 62 46 52 DK/NA 5 2 6 8 3 7 3 Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Fair 50% 42% 28% 42% 43% Unfair 47 52 67 51 54 DK/NA 3 6 5 7 3