October 27, 2004 - Bush, Kerry In Dead Heat In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Terrorism Concerns, Campaign Visit Help President
President George W. Bush has closed a four-point gap with Democratic challenger John Kerry and the two candidates are locked in a 46 - 46 percent tie among New Jersey likely voters, with 2 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Six percent remain undecided.

Kerry had a 49 - 45 percent lead among likely voters, with 1 percent for Nader, in an October 19 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Among registered voters backing President Bush, 79 percent say they are voting more for the President. Among Kerry supporters, 50 percent say they are voting more for the Democrat while 45 percent say they are voting more against Bush.

A New Jersey visit from a presidential candidate is "very important" in deciding how they vote, 27 percent of registered voters say, with 26 percent who say "somewhat important."

"We've counted carefully and frequently, but Sen. Kerry hasn't been able to pull away from President Bush in New Jersey, a state which has gone from Democratic blue to dead heat purple," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The outcome is in the hands of a small group of undecided voters." Quinnipiac University Poll/October 27, 2004 - page 2

"Bush's quick drop in to New Jersey last week probably helped him. Will Kerry and/or former President Clinton stop by before Tuesday?" Carroll added.

Given four choices, 30 percent of New Jersey voters list terrorism as the most important issue in the presidential race, followed by 27 percent who list the economy, 26 percent who list the situation in Iraq and 13 percent who list health care.

Asked who would do a better job on these issues, New Jersey voters say:
  • 53 - 37 percent that Bush would do a better job on terrorism;
  • 49 - 42 percent that Kerry would do a better job on the economy;
  • 48 - 42 percent that Bush would do a better job on Iraq;
  • 51 - 38 percent that Kerry would do a better job on health care.
"Many New Jersey voters face security checks as they commute to New York or Philadelphia each day. They remember 700 Garden State neighbors lost on September 11 and see the wounded skyline where the World Trade Center stood. Here, more than in any other battleground state surveyed by Quinnipiac University, terrorism emerges as the top campaign issue," Carroll said.

"And dealing with terrorism is President Bush's strongest voter appeal. Even 24 percent of Democrats say Bush would do a better job dealing with terrorism."

From October 21 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,179 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. The survey includes 852 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush, or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'.

                        LIKELY VOTERS ...............................
                                                SMONE   WLDN'T
                        JK      GWB     RN      ELSE    VOTE    DK/NA


Oct 27, 2004 46 46 2 1 - 6 Oct 19, 2004 49 45 1 - - 4 Oct 6, 2004 49 46 2 1 - 3 Sep 21, 2004 48 48 2 - - 2



TREND: If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican and Ralph Nader the Independent, for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)

                                                SMONE   WLDN'T
                        JK      GWB     RN      ELSE    VOTE    DK/NA


Oct 27, 2004 45 41 2 1 - 12 Oct 19, 2004 46 39 2 - - 12 Oct 6, 2004 44 42 1 1 - 12 Sep 21, 2004 47 43 3 1 - 6 Aug 25, 2004 49 39 4 1 1 7 Aug 5, 2004 49 36 6 1 2 6 Jun 23, 2004 46 40 7 - 1 6 May 20, 2004 46 43 5 1 1 5



TREND: If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president; the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?

                        Iraq    Econ    Terror  HlthCr  DK/NA


Oct 27, 2004 26 27 30 13 4 Oct 19, 2004 25 24 27 18 5 Oct 6, 2004 24 29 31 12 5 Sep 21, 2004 24 25 30 16 5



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        GWB     JK      DK/NA


Oct 27, 2004 38 51 11 Oct 19, 2004 35 56 9 Oct 6, 2004 33 53 14 Sep 21, 2004 36 55 9



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        GWB     JK      DK/NA


Oct 27, 2004 42 49 10 Oct 19, 2004 40 50 10 Oct 6, 2004 42 47 11 Sep 21, 2004 44 50 6



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        GWB     JK      DK/NA


Oct 27, 2004 48 42 10 Oct 19, 2004 48 44 9 Oct 6, 2004 49 42 9 Sep 21, 2004 49 44 7



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism, -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        GWB     JK      DK/NA


Oct 27, 2004 53 37 10 Oct 19, 2004 53 37 10 Oct 6, 2004 52 38 10 Sep 21, 2004 55 38 8



1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1)As of today, do you lean more to Kerry, Bush or Nader? This table includes 'Leaners'.

                        Likely
                        Voters
                        
Kerry                   46%  
Bush                    46  
Nader                    2  
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1  
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -  
DK/NA                    6  




1. If the election for president were being held today, and the candidates were John Kerry the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, and Ralph Nader the Independent for whom would you vote? (Registered voters)

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Veteran


Kerry 45% 8% 81% 43% 41% 48% 38% Bush 41 84 10 34 46 35 47 Nader 2 1 1 4 3 1 4 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - 1 - - 1 1 DK/NA 12 7 7 17 9 14 10

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Kerry 55% 46% 38% 51% 34% Bush 27 37 48 35 53 Nader 1 2 1 5 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 1 - - - DK/NA 15 13 12 7 10

No Coll Coll PRES VOTE 2000 Degree Degree Lib Mod Con Gore Bush

Kerry 42% 50% 76% 44% 25% 80% 9% Bush 41 39 14 38 64 7 78 Nader 2 2 3 3 1 3 2 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - - - 1 - 1 - DK/NA 13 7 5 14 10 10 10

Age in years............... 18-34 35-49 50-64 65+

Kerry 52% 47% 39% 42% Bush 35 40 45 44 Nader 4 - 2 1 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 8 12 11 13

Annual hshold income <30 30-50 50-100 >100K

Kerry 57% 47% 43% 39% Bush 22 37 47 51 Nader 2 5 2 - SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 - DK/NA 18 9 8 8



2. (If candidate choice q1)Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                        Kerry   Bush
                        Vtr q1  Vtr q1


Made up 94% 96% Might change 5 4 DK/NA 1 -



3a. (If Kerry voter q1)Is your vote more for Kerry or more against Bush?

                        Kerry 
                        Vtr q1


For Kerry 50% Against Bush 45 DK/NA 5



3b. (If Bush voter q1)Is your vote more for Bush or more against Kerry?

                        Bush
                        Vtr q1 


For Bush 79% Against Kerry 18 DK/NA 3



4. If you had to choose, which of the following issues will be most important to your vote for president; the situation in Iraq, the economy, terrorism or health care?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Iraq 26% 18% 35% 25% 26% 26% 25% Economy 27 19 29 31 28 26 25 Terrorism 30 54 14 25 32 27 34 Health care 13 6 18 15 11 16 11 DK/NA 4 4 3 5 3 5 4



5. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on health care -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 38% 77% 8% 34% 40% 36% 42% Kerry 51 14 85 54 50 52 48 DK/NA 11 9 7 12 10 12 10



6. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the economy -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 42% 83% 13% 35% 46% 38% 52% Kerry 49 13 81 53 46 51 38 DK/NA 10 5 6 12 8 11 10



7. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on the situation in Iraq -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 48% 87% 18% 46% 55% 42% 59% Kerry 42 9 72 42 39 44 33 DK/NA 10 4 9 12 6 14 8



8. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think would do a better job on terrorism -- George W. Bush or John Kerry?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Bush 53% 90% 24% 51% 60% 46% 60% Kerry 37 6 66 37 34 40 31 DK/NA 10 4 10 12 6 14 9



9. How important is it to your vote for President that a Presidential candidate visit New Jersey - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom    Veteran


Very important 27% 23% 33% 21% 23% 30% 22% Somewhat 26 27 27 24 27 25 28 Not too 22 23 20 24 21 22 22 Not at all 25 26 20 31 29 22 27 DK/NA 1 - 1 - - 1 -