April 12, 2001 - By Slim Majority, New Jersey Voters Back Bush Tax Cut, Quinnipiac University Poll finds; But Voters Say 2-1 Tax Cut Mainly Will Help The Rich
New Jersey voters support President Bush's tax cut proposal 52 - 39 percent, with 9 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

By a 61 - 30 percent margin, voters support a Senate proposal to give all taxpayers a $300 rebate this year, the independent Quinnipiac University poll finds. Sixty percent of voters say President's Bush's tax cut mainly will benefit the rich, while 27 percent say it will benefit the middle-class and 4 percent say it will help the poor.

And only 31 percent of New Jersey voters say the tax cut will "make a significant difference" in the amount of money they receive after taxes, while 65 percent say it will not make a difference.

The $1.6 trillion tax cut would be good for the U.S. economy, 43 percent of voters say, while 19 percent say it will be bad for the economy and 30 percent say it will make no difference.

"Read their lips: Cut their taxes, New Jersey voters tell Congress. A majority supports President Bush's big, long-range tax cut. A bigger 2-1 majority support a Senate proposal to give everyone 300 bucks right away," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The U.S. can cut taxes $1.6 trillion and still save programs such as Social Security and Medicare, New Jersey voters say 57 - 35 percent.

In an open-ended question allowing any answer, a total of 23 percent of voters list the economy/jobs/the stock market as the biggest problem facing the U.S. today, followed by 11 percent who list education and 9 percent who list taxes.

The nation's economy is "excellent," 3 percent of voters say, while 46 percent say it is "good" and 42 percent say it is "not so good;" 8 percent say it is poor. The economy will get better in the next year, 29 percent of voters say, while 28 percent say it will get worse and 39 percent say it will stay the same.

Eight percent of New Jersey voters say their personal finances are "excellent," while 64 percent say they are "good;" 21 percent say their finances are "not so good" and 6 percent say they are "poor."

By a 55 - 38 percent margin, voters say a recession is "unlikely."

"New Jersey voters are confident there won't be a recession, but they don't expect the economy to soar in the next 12 months," Carroll said.

"There's a big split between what they think the President's tax cut would do and what they think it should do. It should help the middle class, 55 percent of voters say. Another 33 percent say it should help poor people, and 2 percent say it should help rich people," Carroll said. "But 60 percent of voters say the tax cut would help rich people."

From April 3 - 9, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,145 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu
11. What do you think is the most important problem facing the country today?
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Crime/Violence 4% 4% 4% 3% 2% 5% Drugs 3 3 1 3 2 3 Youth Crime/ Violence/Gangs 1 - 2 2 1 2

Guns/Gun Control 2 2 3 2 2 2

Budget/Deficit 1 1 1 2 1 1 Spending Priorities 1 1 1 - 1 -

Economy 20 22 17 23 25 16 Unemployment/Jobs 2 1 3 2 1 2 Stock Market 1 1 1 2 1 1

Taxes 9 15 5 7 10 7

Racism/Race Relations 2 1 2 2 2 2

Poverty/Homelessness 3 2 4 2 3 3

Immigration 1 1 - 1 1 1

Lack of Ethics/Morality 3 5 1 3 3 3

Family Breakdown/ Family Values 2 3 1 2 1 2 Children's Issues 1 - 1 - - 1

Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 4 4 5 5 3 6 Medicare 1 - 2 1 1 1

Abortion 1 2 1 - - 1

Social Security 1 2 1 1 1 1

Education 11 8 14 11 10 13 Violence in Schools 3 3 3 2 2 3

Environment/Pollution 3 1 4 4 3 3

Energy problem 1 - 1 1 1 1

Politicians/Government 2 1 3 2 2 3 Political Corruption 1 1 - - 1 - Campaign Finance Reform 1 - 1 1 1 -

Foreign Policy 4 4 3 5 5 4

National Defense Issues 1 2 - - 1 -

Other 5 4 3 7 5 4 DK/NA 4 4 3 3 3 4

12. Would you describe the state of the nation's economy these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Excellent 3% 6% 2% 3% 4% 2% Good 46 53 39 47 47 45

Not so good 42 33 50 42 39 44 Poor 8 7 7 7 8 7

DK/NA 2 - 2 1 1 2

13. Would you describe the state of your own personal finances these days as: Excellent, good, not so good, or poor?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Excellent 8% 11% 5% 8% 10% 6% Good 64 69 62 63 67 62

Not so good 21 17 25 20 18 23 Poor 6 3 7 7 5 7

DK/NA 1 - 1 2 1 2

14. During the next 12 months, do you think the economic conditions in the United States will get better, get worse, or stay about the same?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Get better 29% 42% 21% 27% 33% 25%

Get worse 28 15 35 31 25 30

Stay the same 39 41 40 37 38 40

DK/NA 4 3 4 5 3 5

15. During the next 12 months, do you think it is likely or unlikely that a recession will occur in this country?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Likely 38% 29% 41% 39% 37% 38%

Unlikely 55 67 49 55 59 53

DK/NA 7 4 10 6 4 9

17. As you may know, President Bush has sometimes said that the economy may be heading into a recession. Do you think this has affected the economy or don't you think so?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 52% 33% 68% 53% 48% 55%

No 44 64 28 44 49 40

DK/NA 4 3 4 3 3 4

19. Based on what you have heard or read, do you favor or oppose President Bush's 1.6 trillion dollar tax cut for the country over the next ten years?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favor 52% 84% 27% 47% 57% 48% Oppose 39 12 60 46 38 41

DK/NA 9 5 12 7 6 11

20. (If "oppose" Q19) Would you favor or oppose a smaller tax cut for the country?
                          Oppose tax plan Q19


Favor 74% Oppose 19

DK/NA 7

21. If Bush's proposed tax cut is adopted, do you think it will or will not make a significant difference in the amount of money you have after taxes?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes/Will make diff. 31% 45% 22% 28% 32% 31% No/Will not 65 51 73 70 65 64

DK/NA 4 3 5 3 3 5

22. If the proposed Bush income tax cut is adopted, do you think you would put most of any extra money you'd get into savings of some sort, use most of it to pay off debt, or spend most of it?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Save it 45% 52% 42% 40% 43% 46% Pay off debt 30 21 36 32 29 30 Spend it 20 22 17 23 23 18

DK/NA 5 4 5 5 4 5

23. From what you know, do you think a tax cut of 1.6 trillion dollars over the next ten years would be good for the economy, bad for the economy, or won't it have much effect on the economy?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Good for economy 43% 73% 22% 39% 50% 38% Bad for economy 19 5 33 19 16 22 Won't effect economy 30 18 36 33 29 30

DK/NA 7 3 9 9 5 10

24. From what you've heard so far, who do you think would benefit most from Bush's tax cut plan - rich people, poor people, or middle income people?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Rich people 60% 30% 80% 67% 57% 62% Poor people 4 4 3 2 4 3 Middle income people 27 49 12 23 28 26

DK/NA 10 17 5 8 11 9

25. Who would you like to see benefit most from a tax cut - rich people, poor people, or middle income people?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Rich people 2% 2% 1% 3% 2% 1% Poor people 33 18 49 32 29 37 Middle income people 55 69 44 55 57 53

DK/NA 10 12 7 10 12 8

26. Do you think it's possible or not possible to preserve programs like Social Security and Medicare and cut income taxes by 1.6 trillion dollars?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes/Possible 57% 80% 39% 54% 61% 55% No/Not possible 35 15 54 36 34 37

DK/NA 7 5 7 9 6 9

27. Based on what you have heard or read, do you favor or oppose a Senate proposal for giving all taxpayers a 300 dollar rebate check this year?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favor 61% 61% 59% 63% 58% 63% Oppose 30 33 28 26 35 24

DK/NA 10 5 13 10 6 13

28. If you received a 300 dollar rebate, do you think you would put most of the money into savings of some sort, use most of it to pay off debt, or spend most of it?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Save it 33% 34% 35% 32% 30% 37% Pay off debt 31 24 36 31 26 34 Spend it 34 40 27 36 41 27

DK/NA 2 2 2 1 2 2

29. From what you know, do you think giving all taxpayers a 300 dollar rebate check this year would be good for the economy, bad for the economy, or won't it have much effect on the economy?
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Good for economy 31% 34% 26% 33% 31% 31% Bad for economy 7 4 12 5 5 9 Won't effect economy 59 60 59 60 64 56

DK/NA 3 1 3 3 1 4