May 10, 2001 - McGreevey Leads Franks, Schundler In NJ Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Franks Ahead In Republican Primary, But Race Could Be Close
Democrat James McGreevey leads Republican Bob Franks in the New Jersey governor's race, 44 - 35 percent with 18 percent undecided, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. McGreevey's lead over Republican Bret Schundler is 48 - 27 percent with 22 percent undecided.

In a December 6, 2000, poll by the independent Quinnipiac University, shortly after Franks' narrow loss to Jon Corzine in the New Jersey Senate race, McGreevey had 38 percent to Franks' 35 percent, a neck and neck contest.

In this latest poll, Franks leads Schundler among registered Republican voters 46 - 24 percent, with 28 percent undecided. But among conservative Republican voters, a key voting bloc, Franks' lead shrinks to a statistical 38 - 33 percent tie.

From May 1 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,181 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent. The survey included 331 registered Republican voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.4 percent.

"So how did the Republican candidate switch work? When we last looked at Bob Franks, he was just coming off a hotly-contested statewide election for U.S. Senate and he looked good against Mayor McGreevey," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Then Franks dropped out and now he's back in - and 9 points behind the Democrat," Carroll said.

"The new guy picks up right where DiFrancesco left off. It's a brand new race and both candidates have room to move, especially with 18 percent of the voters undecided.

"If Schundler gets the Republican nod, McGreevey is in a stronger position."

By a 22 - 11 percent margin New Jersey voters have a favorable opinion of McGreevey, with 15 percent mixed and 51 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion. Last month, McGreevey had a 19- 9 percent favorability, with 57 percent who didn't know enough to form an opinion.

Franks gets a 22 - 11 percent favorability, with 21 percent mixed and 45 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. In December, his favorability was 32 - 12 with 38 percent who didn't know enough to form an opinion.

Schundler's favorability is 13 - 8 percent, with 10 percent mixed and 68 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion, little changed from last month.

"Schundler is mayor of a major city; Franks ran for statewide office only a year ago; McGreevey came within a whisker of being elected governor four years ago. But they all share the New Jersey political ailment - lack of statewide recognition," Carroll said.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu

6. How much attention have you been paying to the campaign for Governor? A lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 17% 19% 17% 16% 22% 13%

Some 35 37 34 36 34 36

Only a little 31 30 32 32 30 32

None at all 16 13 17 16 14 18

DK/NA - - - - - -

7. Is your opinion of James McGreevey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 22% 12% 33% 22% 26% 20%

Unfavorable 11 22 4 9 13 9

Mixed 15 16 12 17 16 14

Hvn't hrd enough 51 49 50 51 44 56

REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1

8. Is your opinion of Bret Schundler favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 13% 23% 6% 11% 16% 10%

Unfavorable 8 5 13 7 10 7

Mixed 10 9 11 12 11 10

Hvn't hrd enough 68 62 69 69 62 73

REFUSED 1 1 - 1 1 1

9. Is your opinion of Bob Franks favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 22% 37% 12% 23% 27% 19%

Unfavorable 11 5 16 11 11 11

Mixed 21 21 22 21 23 20

Hvn't hrd enough 45 36 50 44 38 50

REFUSED 1 1 1 2 1 1



10. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were James McGreevy the Democrat and Bob Franks the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


McGreevey 44% 11% 76% 40% 44% 44% Franks 35 74 9 32 38 33

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 2 2 DK/NA 18 13 13 24 16 20



11. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were James McGreevy the Democrat and Bret Schundler the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


McGreevey 48% 15% 80% 44% 50% 46% Schundler 27 63 3 24 28 26

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 4 3 2 DK/NA 22 18 14 28 18 25



12. (If registered Republican)If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Franks and Bret Schundler for whom would you vote?

                          Registered Republicans..........
                          Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Franks 46% 53% 38% Schundler 24 19 33

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 DK/NA 28 27 26