June 20, 2001 - Schundler Leads Franks In New Jersey GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But GOP Likely Voters Expect Franks To Win
Jersey City Mayor Bret Schundler leads former U.S. Rep. Bob Franks 54 - 39 percent among likely Republican primary voters in the New Jersey governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Among all registered Republican voters, the race is tied at 37 percent each.

In a May 10 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University, Franks led Schundler among registered Republican voters 46 - 24 percent, with 28 percent undecided. But among conservative Republican voters, a key voting bloc, Franks' lead dropped to a statistical 38 - 33 percent tie.

From June 14 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,408 New Jersey registered Republican voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percent. The survey included 415 likely Republican primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.8 percent.

"This Republican primary is a real barn-burner. It all comes down to turnout. A light turnout, dominated by hard-core conservative Republicans, favors Mayor Schundler," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"But this is New Jersey. It's a politically volatile state whose voters have a habit of making up their minds the night before the polls open, or even later."

While Republican likely voters back Schundler, 55 percent expect Franks to win the primary, while only 25 percent expect Schundler to win.

In this voter group, 38 percent say Franks is too liberal, while 5 percent say he is too conservative and 49 percent say he is "about right."

Schundler is too liberal, 13 percent of GOP likely voters say, while 12 percent say he is too conservative and 60 percent say he is "about right."

By a 53 - 12 percent margin New Jersey Republican likely voters have a favorable opinion of Schundler, with 21 percent mixed and 13 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.

Franks gets a 44 - 21 percent favorability, with 30 percent mixed and 4 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Cutting taxes is "very important," 50 percent of Republican likely voters say, while 36 percent say it is "somewhat important" and 13 percent say it is "not very important."

If Schundler is elected, taxes will go up, 24 percent of Republican likely voters say, while 27 percent say taxes will go down and 40 percent say they will stay the same. Taxes will go up under Franks, 34 percent of voters say, while 6 percent say they will go down and 52 percent say they will remain the same.

"The candidates have hammered each other on the issue of taxes, and Republican likely voters say tax-cutting counts. Schundler comes out ahead on this issue," Carroll said.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu
2. Is your opinion of Bret Schundler favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Favorable 53% 34% 66%

Unfavorable 12 19 7

Mixed 21 28 17

Hvn't hrd enough 13 18 10

REFUSED - 1 -

3. Is your opinion of Bob Franks favorable, unfavorable, mixed,or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Favorable 44% 54% 37%

Unfavorable 21 14 27

Mixed 30 26 33

Hvn't hrd enough 4 6 4

REFUSED - 1 -

4. If the Republican primary for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were Bob Franks and Bret Schundler for whom would you vote?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Franks 39% 55% 26% Schundler 54 37 66

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - DK/NA 7 7 7



5. (If Franks or Schundler Q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                              Franks    Schundler
                    Tot       Voters    Voters


Made up 70% 66% 73%

Might change 29 33 27

DK/NA 1 1 -



6. (If Franks or Schundler Q4) Would you describe your support for (Candidate Q4) as strongly favoring him, or do you like (Candidate Q4) but with reservations, or do you support (Candidate Q4) because you dislike the other candidate?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                              Franks    Schundler
                    Tot       Voters    Voters


Strongly favor 62% 54% 67%

Like with reservations 30 34 27

Dislike other candidate 6 8 5

DK/NA 2 4 1



8. Regardless of who you support, who do you think will win the Repubican primary for Governor?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Franks 55% 61% 51% Schundler 25 19 30

DK/NA 20 20 19

8. Regardless of who you support, who do you think will win the Repubican primary for Governor?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                              Franks    Schundler
                    Tot       Voters    Voters


Franks 55% 85% 36% Schundler 25 1 43

DK/NA 20 14 20



9. Do you think it will be a close race or not a close race?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Close 72% 66% 76%

Not close 20 24 18

DK/NA 8 10 7



12. Do you think Bret Schundler is more of a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Liberal 10% 13% 8% Moderate 28 34 26 Conservative 50 37 60

DK/NA 11 16 6



13. Do you think Bob Franks is more of a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Liberal 25% 16% 30% Moderate 53 59 49 Conservative 17 17 18

DK/NA 6 7 2



14. Do you think Bret Schundler is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Too liberal 13% 17% 12% Too conservative 12 24 3 About right 60 41 74

DK/NA 15 19 11



15. Do you think Bob Franks is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Too liberal 38% 23% 50% Too conservative 5 7 2 About right 49 61 40

DK/NA 9 8 7



16. How important is it to you that the candidate that you vote for in the Republican primary for Governor shares your political philosophy? Very important, somewhat important, or not too important?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Very important 67% 61% 71% Smwht important 29 34 25 Not too important 4 4 4

DK/NA - 1 -



17. If Bret Schundler is elected Governor, do you think taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Go up 24% 32% 19% Go down 27 14 37 Stay the same 40 41 40

DK/NA 9 14 5



18. If Bob Franks is elected Governor, do you think taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Go up 34% 29% 37% Go down 6 6 6 Stay the same 52 56 51

DK/NA 8 9 6



19. How important is it to you that the candidate that you vote for in the Republican primary favors cutting taxes? Very important, somewhat important, or not too important?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Very important 50% 34% 60% Smwht important 36 47 32 Not too important 13 18 7

DK/NA 1 1 1



20. Which of these statements comes closest to your view? -

(A) Abortion should be generally available to those who want it. (B) Abortion should be available, but under stricter limits than it is now. (C) Abortion should not be permitted.

                              Likely Republican Primary Voters
                              ................................
                              Tot       Moderate  Conservative


(A) Should be generally available. 31% 47% 19%

(B) Available, but stricter limits. 43 39 47

(C) Should not be permitted. 24 12 32

DK/NA 2 3 2



21. How important is it to you that the candidate that you vote for in the Republican primary for Governor shares your view on abortion? Very important, somewhat important, or not too important?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Very important 34% 31% 34% Smwht important 40 43 39 Not too important 25 24 26

DK/NA 1 2 1

22. On the issue of abortion, do you consider yourself to be generally pro-choice or pro-life?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Pro-choice 43% 57% 32% Pro-life 51 36 63

DK/NA 6 7 5

23. On the issue of abortion, do you consider Franks to be generally pro-choice or pro-life?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Pro-choice 47% 40% 52% Pro-life 19 24 16

DK/NA 34 36 32

24. On the issue of abortion, do you consider Schundler to be generally pro-choice or pro-life?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Pro-choice 16% 21% 12% Pro-life 44 36 50

DK/NA 40 43 37

25. Do you favor or oppose requiring parental notification before a minor could get an abortion?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Favor 86% 78% 93%

Oppose 11 18 5

DK/NA 3 4 1



26. Do you favor or oppose a state constitutional amendment that would require parental notification before a minor could get an abortion?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Favor 66% 59% 71% Oppose 30 37 25

DK/NA 4 4 4



27. Do you happen to know whether your local party organization is supporting Schundler or Franks in the Republican primary for Governor?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Schundler 8% 8% 8% Franks 38 43 37

DK/NA 54 49 56



28. How important is it to you that the candidate that you vote for in the Republican primary for Governor be supported by your local party organization? Very important, somewhat important, or not too important?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Very important 29% 30% 29% Smwht important 24 26 23 Not too important 46 43 48

DK/NA 1 1 1

31. Do you happen know the name of the current acting Governor of New Jersey?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Yes/Correct 91% 91% 91% Yes/Incorrect 3 3 4 No/Don't know 6 6 5

REFUSED - 1 -

32. Do you happen to know which party controls the New Jersey State legislature the Democratic Party or the Republican Party?

                    Likely Republican Primary Voters
                    ................................
                    Tot       Moderate  Conservative


Yes/Correct 82% 83% 82% Yes/Incorrect 6 7 6 No/Don't know 12 9 12

REFUSED - - -