October 17, 2001 - McGreevey Leads 49 - 39 Among NJ Likely Voters, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Schundler Trails Democrat On Most Traits
Democrat James McGreevey holds a 49 - 39 percent lead over Republican Bret Schundler among likely voters in the New Jersey governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Previous surveys of a wider pool of registered voters showed McGreevey with bigger leads, but as the election nears the focus shifts to count only those likely to vote. Among registered voters, McGreevey leads 49 - 35 percent, compared to 44 - 30 percent in a September 27 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University.

In this latest poll, Democratic likely voters back McGreevey 90 - 3 percent, while Republicans back Schundler 76 - 14 percent. Independent voters go with the Democrat 51 - 33 percent.

From October 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,140 New Jersey registered voters, ith a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent. The survey includes 742 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percent.

"In a heavy vote, Mayor McGreevey looks like a winner. But if the Democrat's cautious campaign fails to motivate supporters, Schundler's committed following could make a difference," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Both candidates score high on personality traits - trustworthiness and strength of leadership. Voters identify McGreevey as liberal and Schundler as conservative. But elections are decided in the middle and McGreevey outpoints Schundler as more voters see him as `moderate,'" Carroll added.

By a 39 - 20 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of McGreevey, with 21

percent mixed and 19 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. Schundler gets a 31 - 23 percent favorability rating, with 20 percent mixed and 25 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion.

Looking at McGreevey, New Jersey likely voters say:
  • 53 - 30 percent that he shares their views on issues they care about;
  • 61 -16 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
  • 62 - 18 percent that he has strong leadership qualities. Looking at Schundler, New Jersey likely voters say:
  • 44 - 36 percent that he shares their views on issues they care about;
  • 57 -17 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
  • 60 - 18 percent that he has strong leadership qualities.
McGreevey is a liberal, 41 percent of voters say, while 8 percent say he is a conservative and 38 percent say he is moderate. The Democrat is "too liberal," 26 percent say, while 4 percent say he is `too conservative," and 56 percent say he is "about right."

Schundler is a conservative, 57 percent of voters say, while 8 percent say he is a liberal and 21 percent say he is moderate. The Republican is "too conservative," 32 percent say, while 5 percent say he is "too liberal," and 47 percent say he is "about right."

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu
6. Is your opinion of James McGreevey favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 34% 39% 15% 69% 40% 38% 41%

Unfavorable 16 20 38 3 16 24 17

Mixed 20 21 27 12 23 20 22

Hvn't hrd enough 29 19 20 15 20 18 20

REFUSED 1 - - - - - 1

7. Is your opinion of Bret Schundler favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 25% 31% 55% 6% 28% 37% 26%

Unfavorable 20 23 4 45 25 21 25

Mixed 19 20 22 16 21 22 18

Hvn't hrd enough 35 25 19 32 24 20 30

REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 1

8. If the election for Governor were being held today, and the candidates were James McGreevey the Democrat and Bret Schundler the Republican for whom would you vote?

                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


McGreevey 49% 49% 14% 90% 51% 48% 50% Schundler 35 39 76 3 33 42 36

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 1 1 DK/NA 14 11 9 7 16 9 13



10. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                          LIKELY VOTERS .........
                          McGreevey     Schundler
                          Voters        Voters


Made up 70% 64%

Might change 29 35

DK/NA - 1

11. Would you describe your support for McGreevey/Schundler as strongly favoring him, or do you like him but with reservations, or do you support McGreevey/Schundler because you dislike the other candidate?

                          LIKELY VOTERS .........
                          McGreevey     Schundler
                          Voters        Voters


Strongly favor 45% 48%

Like with reservations 33 36

Dislike other candidate 17 11

DK/NA 5 4

12. Would you say that James McGreevey... Shares your views on issues that you care about or not?

                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 51% 53% 23% 86% 57% 48% 58%

No 27 30 60 3 24 36 25

DK/NA 22 16 18 10 19 16 17

13. Would you say that James McGreevey... Is honest and trustworthy or not?

                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 55% 61% 51% 79% 56% 62% 60%

No 15 16 24 5 18 19 14

DK/NA 30 23 25 16 26 20 26

14. Would you say that James McGreevey... Has strong leadership qualities or not?

                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 59% 62% 41% 84% 65% 60% 64%

No 16 18 33 2 14 21 14

DK/NA 26 20 26 13 20 19 22

15. Would you say that Bret Schundler... Shares your views on issues that you care about or not?

                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 39% 44% 73% 14% 40% 47% 41%

No 34 36 12 61 41 35 38

DK/NA 27 20 15 25 20 18 21

16. Would you say that Bret Schundler... Is honest and trustworthy or not?

                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 49% 57% 79% 35% 54% 62% 53%

No 18 17 6 28 18 15 18

DK/NA 33 26 15 37 28 23 29

17. Would you say that Bret Schundler... Has strong leadership qualities or not?

                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 53% 60% 78% 36% 61% 62% 58%

No 17 18 6 32 19 18 18

DK/NA 30 22 16 31 20 20 24

18. Do you think James McGreevey is more of a liberal, moderate, or conservative?
                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Liberal 37% 41% 59% 26% 38% 44% 38%

Moderate 35 38 22 54 42 38 38

Conservative 9 8 7 9 7 9 8

DK/NA 19 13 12 11 13 9 16

19. Do you think James McGreevey is too liberal, too conservative or about right?
                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Too liberal 23% 26% 53% 3% 21% 31% 22%

Too conservative 4 4 3 4 4 5 3

About right 53 56 31 82 59 54 58

DK/NA 20 14 14 11 16 11 16

20. Do you think of Bret Schundler as more of a liberal, moderate, or conservative?
                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Liberal 8% 8% 6% 11% 8% 8% 8%

Moderate 21 21 28 10 23 21 21

Conservative 49 57 58 58 55 60 53

DK/NA 22 14 8 21 14 11 18

21. Do you think Bret Schundler is too liberal, too conservative or about right?

                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Too liberal 6% 5% 4% 8% 4% 5% 5%

Too conservative 27 32 16 44 38 32 31

About right 43 47 71 22 43 50 43

DK/NA 24 16 9 26 16 12 21

22. How much do you feel you know about James McGreevey's positions on issues that are important to you - a lot, some, only a little, or nothing at all?

                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 22% 29% 28% 35% 27% 32% 26%

Some 43 47 46 48 47 45 48

Only a little 22 17 19 13 18 16 17

Nothing at all 11 6 7 4 5 4 7

DK/NA 3 2 - 1 4 2 1

23. How much do you feel you know about Bret Schundler's positions on issues that are important to you - a lot, some, only a little, or nothing at all?

                    Tot     LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                    Reg     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 21% 28% 37% 22% 26% 32% 25%

Some 37 43 45 40 44 40 45

Only a little 22 17 12 23 18 17 17

Nothing at all 17 9 6 14 8 8 11

DK/NA 3 2 - 2 4 2 2