November 17, 2004 - Corzine has Big Early Lead in New Jersey Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Codey Also Tops GOP Contenders
Sen. Jon Corzine is the odds-on favorite in an early look at the 2005 New Jersey governor's race, topping any names on a list of the top Republican contenders by at least 20 percentage points, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In a Democratic primary, Sen. Corzine would beat Gov. Richard Codey 60 - 20 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Corzine beats several possible Republican challengers:
  • 51 - 25 percent over Diane Allen;
  • 51 - 30 percent over Bret Schundler;
  • 51 - 29 percent over Douglas Forrester;
  • 51 - 24 percent over Christopher Christie.
Codey also runs well against the Republicans:
  • 39 - 28 percent over Diane Allen
  • 40 - 34 percent over Bret Schundler;
  • 39 - 32 percent over Douglas Forrester;
  • 40 - 27 percent over Christopher Christie.
"The poll suggests Sen. Corzine would probably win the governorship today in a landslide," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "Acting governor Codey is less well-known, but also leads all Republican contenders and has six months in office before he faces a Democratic primary."

"Schundler and Forrester are the leading Republicans only because they have run statewide before and are better known," Richards added.

In a Republican primary, Schundler leads with 34 percent, followed by 19 percent for Forrester, 12 percent for Christie and 11 percent for Allen.

Taxes, especially property taxes, are the most important issue in New Jersey, 28 percent of voters say, followed by 10 percent who say the economy, especially jobs.

By a 73 - 20 percent margin, New Jersey voters say it's a good idea to amend the state constitution to create the office of Lieutenant Governor, elected as the governor's running mate and becoming governor if the governor is unable to complete the term.

Voters also say 79 - 9 percent that it's a good idea to convene a constitutional convention to restructure the property tax system. But by a 41 - 38 percent margin, voters would rather have the State legislature reform the property tax system.

In a final measure of former Gov. James McGreevey, voters have a split opinion, with 44 percent approving of the job he did as governor and 47 percent disapproving. Thinking about how history will judge McGreevey as governor, 4 percent of voters say "excellent;" with 38 percent who say "good;" 29 percent who say "not so good," and 24 percent who say "poor."

"With sharply divided approval ratings, James McGreevey has a fighting chance of not being remembered only for the scandal that drove him from office. His split approval rating doesn't look so bad when compared with Gov. John Rowland, who left office in Connecticut earlier this year with a negative 27 - 66 percent approval."

From November 9 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,235 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.1 percentage points. The survey includes 814 registered Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points, and 623 registered Republicans, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way James McGreevey is handling his job as Governor? (*Nov 17, 2004 ...the way James McGreevey handled his job as Governor?)

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Nov 17, 2004 44 47 9 Sep 22, 2004 40 51 9 Aug 25, 2004 39 51 9 Aug 4, 2004 38 47 14 Jun 22, 2004 45 39 16 May 19, 2004 41 43 16 Mar 9, 2004 38 47 15 Nov 12, 2003 34 52 14 Sep 24, 2003 35 52 14 Jul 17, 2003 35 49 16 Jun 18, 2003 35 47 18 Apr 2, 2003 38 44 18 Jan 29, 2003 40 41 18 Dec 11, 2002 37 42 21 Oct 7, 2002 44 43 13 Sep 12, 2002 41 36 23 Aug 8, 2002 42 34 25 Jun 20, 2002 43 30 27 Apr 24, 2002 40 32 28 Mar 7, 2002 46 22 32 Jan 31, 2002 42 19 39



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Nov 17, 2004 41 41 19 Sep 22, 2004 37 47 17 Aug 25, 2004 38 44 19 Aug 4, 2004 32 45 23 Jun 22, 2004 36 44 20 May 19, 2004 38 39 23 Mar 9, 2004 34 47 19 Nov 12, 2003 30 51 19 Sep 24, 2003 33 49 18 Jul 17, 2003 32 48 20 Jun 18, 2003 30 46 24 Apr 2, 2003 38 39 24



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?
                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Nov 17, 2004 58 23 20 Sep 22, 2004 54 25 21 Aug 25, 2004 54 24 21 Aug 4, 2004 46 28 26 Jun 22, 2004 46 29 25 May 19, 2004 49 27 23 Mar 9, 2004 47 28 25 Nov 12, 2003 44 30 26 Sep 24, 2003 48 30 22 Jul 17, 2003 48 27 26 Jun 18, 2003 44 30 26 Apr 2, 2003 46 29 25 Jan 29, 2003 47 23 30 Dec 11, 2002 47 22 30 Oct 7, 2002 52 26 22 Sep 12, 2002 47 19 33 Aug 8, 2002 49 19 31 Jun 19, 2002 46 18 36 Apr 24, 2002 48 20 32 Mar 6, 2002 51 20 29 Jan 30, 2002 51 15 33 Oct 18, 2001 51 19 29 Aug 7, 2001 50 21 29 Jul 5, 2001 48 22 30 May 14, 2001 49 20 31 Apr 11, 2001 46 21 33 Mar 8, 2001 43 21 36 Feb 8, 2001 35 18 47



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Nov 17, 2004 52 28 20 Sep 22, 2004 49 32 19 Aug 25, 2004 50 28 22 Aug 4, 2004 48 31 22 Jun 22, 2004 47 31 22 May 19, 2004 48 33 19 Mar 9, 2004 44 33 23 Nov 12, 2003 45 33 23 Sep 24, 2003 48 34 18 Jul 17, 2003 43 33 24 Jun 18, 2003 41 34 25 Apr 2, 2003 44 32 24 Jan 29, 2003 42 27 32 Dec 6, 2000 52 20 27 Aug 24, 2000 51 21 28 Jul 27, 2000 55 22 23 Mar 29, 2000 53 22 25 Feb 23, 2000 52 23 25 Sep 23, 1999 55 25 20 Jul 22, 1999 55 25 20 Mar 31, 1999 54 25 21 Feb 12, 1999 52 29 19 Nov 12, 1998 52 26 22 Aug 10, 1998 50 24 26 Apr 23, 1998 51 25 23 Mar 4, 1998 52 23 25 Oct 22, 1997 51 26 23 Sep 16, 1997 53 26 22 Jul 29, 1997 50 25 26 Apr 10, 1997 52 25 23 Feb 8, 1996 43 32 26



TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                        Very    Smwht   Smwht   Very
                        sat     sat     dis     dis     DK/NA


Nov 17, 2004 4 48 30 16 1 Sep 22, 2004 6 41 32 21 - Aug 25, 2004 7 39 27 25 1 Aug 4, 2004 4 44 32 19 1 Jun 22, 2004 6 48 31 15 1 May 19, 2004 5 45 29 20 - Mar 9, 2004 4 40 36 19 1 Nov 12, 2003 3 37 35 23 1 Sep 24, 2003 4 41 33 22 1 Jul 17, 2003 4 42 35 18 1 Jun 18, 2003 5 39 34 21 2 Apr 2, 2003 4 42 37 16 2 Jan 29, 2003 3 42 33 20 1 Dec 11, 2002 4 47 31 17 1 Jun 20, 2002 5 48 31 15 1 Mar 7, 2002 4 50 30 14 2 Dec 26, 2000 10 61 21 7 1 Feb 12, 1999 11 60 21 7 - Oct 22, 1997 8 53 26 12 1 Sep 16, 1997 9 48 27 15 - Jun 25, 1997 9 50 28 13 1 Apr 10, 1997 7 52 29 11 1 Feb 20, 1997 11 56 23 10 1 Dec 11, 1996 8 49 31 12 1



1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way James McGreevey handled his job as Governor?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Approve 44% 25% 63% 38% 38% 66% 62% Disapprove 47 69 27 51 53 25 28 DK/NA 9 6 10 10 9 9 10

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Approve 56% 48% 31% 44% 37% 39% 48% Disapprove 33 44 59 45 57 53 42 DK/NA 10 9 9 11 7 8 10



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Approve 41% 29% 54% 38% 39% 48% 46% Disapprove 41 52 29 43 41 37 34 DK/NA 19 19 17 19 20 14 20

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Approve 44% 44% 34% 42% 35% 40% 41% Disapprove 35 35 48 43 46 46 36 DK/NA 20 20 18 16 19 14 23



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Jon Corzine is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Approve 58% 40% 70% 60% 57% 71% 59% Disapprove 23 41 12 19 23 15 21 DK/NA 20 20 18 21 20 14 20

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Approve 63% 63% 55% 47% 55% 60% 55% Disapprove 19 20 26 26 25 24 21 DK/NA 18 17 19 26 20 15 24



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Frank Lautenberg is handling his job as United States Senator?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Approve 52% 34% 68% 53% 51% 67% 59% Disapprove 28 50 14 25 30 15 16 DK/NA 20 16 19 22 19 18 25

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Approve 59% 56% 49% 50% 46% 50% 54% Disapprove 20 26 35 25 34 33 23 DK/NA 20 18 16 25 20 16 23



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Approve 45% 90% 10% 45% 51% 14% 43% Disapprove 52 8 87 50 46 83 53 DK/NA 4 1 2 4 3 3 4

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Approve 31% 41% 59% 46% 51% 48% 42% Disapprove 66 56 37 50 46 49 54 DK/NA 3 3 5 4 3 3 4



6. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Diane Allen the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Corzine 51% 17% 83% 46% 47% 75% 55% Allen 25 57 5 22 29 8 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 2 - - DK/NA 22 23 12 29 22 16 28

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Corzine 69% 56% 41% 43% 43% 51% 51% Allen 13 22 24 38 30 26 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 4 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 17 21 29 17 25 19 24



7. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Bret Schundler the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Corzine 51% 14% 85% 46% 46% 79% 58% Schundler 30 71 5 25 35 6 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 - - DK/NA 17 13 10 27 17 16 18

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Corzine 66% 54% 41% 49% 41% 49% 53% Schundler 20 30 39 27 36 34 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 13 14 17 22 21 15 19



8. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Douglas Forrester the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Corzine 51% 15% 84% 47% 46% 81% 58% Forrester 29 70 4 22 34 2 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 - 1 DK/NA 18 14 11 28 18 17 20

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Corzine 68% 57% 40% 46% 41% 49% 53% Forrester 14 28 35 30 36 34 24 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 3 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 - DK/NA 17 15 22 21 21 15 21



9. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Corzine 51% 14% 84% 48% 47% 76% 59% Christie 24 58 4 19 29 5 18 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 2 - - DK/NA 22 24 12 29 22 18 23

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Corzine 67% 55% 42% 48% 42% 50% 52% Christie 16 22 28 26 30 27 22 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 4 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 17 21 25 23 25 20 24



10. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Codey the Democrat, and Diane Allen the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Codey 39% 10% 70% 31% 35% 70% 38% Allen 28 61 8 25 32 9 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 2 1 1 DK/NA 29 25 20 41 30 21 32

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Codey 57% 43% 32% 32% 31% 38% 41% Allen 15 23 32 43 33 31 26 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 3 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 2 3 1 DK/NA 26 31 31 23 33 27 31



10a. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Codey the Democrat, and Bret Schundler the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                       Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Codey 40% 8% 73% 32% 36% 66% 40% Schundler 34 74 8 30 38 9 34 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 24 16 18 35 24 23 26

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Codey 54% 43% 29% 39% 32% 37% 43% Schundler 24 32 47 28 40 38 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - 1 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 1 2 1 DK/NA 20 23 22 29 26 22 26



11. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Codey the Democrat, and Douglas Forrester the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Codey 39% 8% 71% 31% 35% 70% 40% Forrester 32 71 7 30 37 5 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 2 2 DK/NA 26 17 20 36 26 24 26

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Codey 57% 43% 29% 33% 30% 36% 42% Forrester 16 30 41 37 39 37 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 2 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 1 2 1 DK/NA 26 24 25 28 28 23 28



12. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Richard Codey the Democrat, and Christopher Christie the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Codey 40% 8% 72% 34% 37% 67% 39% Christie 27 63 5 22 30 8 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 - 2 1 - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 DK/NA 30 25 21 40 30 23 29

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Codey 55% 45% 30% 37% 32% 38% 43% Christie 17 24 34 29 33 31 23 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 3 1 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 3 3 1 3 1 DK/NA 26 29 31 30 33 26 33



13. (If registered Democrat)If the Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Richard Codey and Jon Corzine for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS.........................
                                                        Philly       
                        Tot     Urban   SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore 
                                                                      
Codey                   20%     18%     18%     23%     18%     26%   
Corzine                 60      64      59      51      65      59    
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       -       -       2       1       -    
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         1       -       1       1       3       2    
DK/NA                   18      17      21      24      12      13    




14. (If registered Republican)If the Republican primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Douglas Forrester, Bret Schundler, Diane Allen and Christopher Christie for whom would you vote? (* Subgroup is too small to report accurately)

                        REGISTERED REPUBLICANS.......................
                                                        Philly       
                        Tot     Urban*  SubUrbn ExUrbn  land    Shore
                                                                     
Forrester               19%     --      21%     24%     17%     17%  
Schundler               34      --      37      46      17      35   
Allen                   11      --       7       4      23      12   
Christie                12      --      10       9      12      13   
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -      --       -       -       1       -   
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2      --       4       2       4       1   
DK/NA                   22      --      21      15      26      23




15. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Very satisfied 4% 2% 8% 3% 4% 9% 7% Smwht satisfied 48 38 57 46 48 48 51 Smwht dissatisfied 30 35 25 33 31 26 25 Very dissatisfied 16 24 10 18 17 14 16 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 2 -

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Very satisfied 7% 5% 2% 5% 4% 4% 5% Smwht satisfied 52 52 45 45 42 48 48 Smwht dissatisfied 26 29 33 32 31 30 30 Very dissatisfied 13 14 19 16 21 17 15 DK/NA 2 1 - 2 2 1 1



16. What do you think is the most important problem facing New Jersey today?

                                Tot 


Taxes total 28% Taxes general 6 Property tax 21 State Income Tax 1

Economy total 10% Economy general 1 Unemployment/jobs 7 Cost of living 1 Businesses/Jobs leaving 1

Auto insurance 7%

Education total 7% Education general 3 Funding education 3 Education other 1

Politicians total 7% Politicians/Campaigns general 1 Political corruption 5 Governor/leadership 1

Health care total 6% Health care/Costs/Insrnce/HMO's 5 Prescription costs 1

Housing total 5% Housing Costs/Availability 2 Overcrowding/Over population 3

Budget total 4% Budget general 1 Budget deficits 2 Gov too big/Gov spending 1

Crime total 3% Crime/Violence general 1 Youth crime/Gangs 1 Drugs 1

Urban sprawl/Over-development 3%

Environment/Pollution 2%

Lack of ethics/Morality 1 Highway traffic/congestion 1 Immigration 1 Security/Safety 1 War/Iraq 1 Other 2 DK/NA 6



17. How do you think history will judge James McGreevey -- as an excellent governor, good, not so good or poor?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Excellent 4% 2% 7% 3% 3% 10% 12% Good 38 23 52 35 35 53 52 Not so good 29 32 27 30 32 23 19 Poor 24 40 11 27 27 12 12 DK/NA 4 3 3 5 4 3 5

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Excellent 9% 4% 1% 7% 2% 2% 7% Good 50 40 33 34 33 34 42 Not so good 22 31 32 28 30 30 29 Poor 16 22 29 25 31 31 18 DK/NA 3 3 4 7 4 4 4



18. Some people have suggested amending the state constitution to create an office of lieutenant governor. The lieutenant governor would be the governor's running mate and become the governor if the governor is unable to complete their term. Do you think this is a good idea or a bad idea?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Good idea 73% 70% 75% 75% 76% 69% 68% Bad idea 20 22 19 20 18 23 23 DK/NA 7 8 6 5 6 8 9

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Good idea 69% 75% 68% 80% 71% 71% 75% Bad idea 23 19 24 16 20 24 17 DK/NA 7 6 7 4 9 4 8



19. There is a proposal to have a constitutional convention after the 2005 elections to restructure the property tax system in New Jersey. Do you think

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Good idea 79% 83% 76% 81% 81% 77% 72% Bad idea 9 8 12 7 7 12 16 DK/NA 12 9 13 12 11 11 12

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Good idea 81% 78% 82% 77% 82% 79% 80% Bad idea 8 10 7 10 10 11 7 DK/NA 11 12 11 14 9 10 13



20. Would you rather see property tax reform handled by a vote of the legislature or by a constitutional convention?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Legislature 41% 37% 47% 36% 37% 59% 53% Constitutional conv. 38 44 31 42 41 24 34 DK/NA 22 19 22 23 23 17 13

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore Men Wom

Legislature 48% 41% 39% 39% 36% 40% 41% Constitutional conv. 31 38 39 35 45 43 33 DK/NA 21 20 23 26 19 16 26