February 24, 2000 - Gore Closes On `Native Son' Bradley Among Jersey Dems, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Bush And McCain Are Locked In Dead Heat In GOP Primary
Former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley beats Vice President Al Gore 51 - 40 percent in a New Jersey Democratic Primary, according to a Quinnipiac College Poll released today, a big drop from the 63 - 24 percent lead Bradley had in a September 27 Quinnipiac College Poll.

In the Republican Primary, Texas Gov. George W. Bush and Arizona Sen. John McCain are locked in a 41 - 41 percent tie.

If Bradley faced Bush in a presidential election in New Jersey, the native son would win 60 - 32 percent, the independent Quinnipiac College Poll finds. The September 27 poll showed Bradley ahead 55 - 35 percent.

In other possible November Presidential matchups:
  • Bradley beats McCain 49 - 38 percent;
  • Gore beats Bush 47 - 41 percent;
  • McCain beats Gore 51 - 38 percent.
From February 16 - 21, Quinnipiac College surveyed 1,109 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of 2.9 percent. The survey includes 307 registered Republican voters, with a margin of error of 5.6 percent and 374 registered Democrats with a margin of error of 5.1 percent.

"Voters tell Quinnipiac College they still prefer the local guy, Sen. Bradley, over Vice President Gore, but that 39-point lead is history," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

"Sen. McCain has been flavor-of-the-day in national campaign coverage and that's reflected in the Republican numbers in New Jersey.

"And if Bradley gets the Democratic nomination, New Jersey voters would take him over either Bush or McCain."

By a 54 - 13 percent margin, New Jersey voters have a favorable opinion of Bradley, while 28 percent have a mixed opinion and 4 percent haven't heard enough to form an opinion. These numbers are unchanged since July 26. Among the other possible candidates:
                 Favorable    Unfavorable    Mixed    No Opinion

Gore                29%           38%         30%         3%
Bush                29            41          27          3
McCain              46            12          27         14


"The outsiders -- Bradley and McCain -- both have high favorability ratings. The establishment candidates -- Bush and Gore -- both come out negative," Carroll said.

Bush's favorability has dropped from 35 - 26 percent in the September 27 Quinnipiac College poll to 29 - 41 percent today. Gore had a 25 - 38 percent favorability in September, compared to 29 - 38 percent today.

These same voters give President Clinton a solid 62 - 35 percent approval rating.

Bradley continues to lead among men, getting 58 percent of Democratic men to Gore's 38 percent in the primary. His lead among Democratic women is a very narrow 47 - 42 percent.

The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data: www.quinnipiac.edu

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 62% 34% 86% 58% 62% 62%

Disapprove 35 62 12 37 37 33

DK/NA 3 4 2 5 2 5



14. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 43% 51% 42% 41% 47% 39%

Some 41 39 44 42 37 45

Only a little 14 8 13 15 13 14

None at all 2 1 2 2 2 2

DK/NA - - - - - -



15. Is your opinion of Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 29% 12% 50% 22% 27% 31%

Unfavorable 38 64 17 41 44 33

Mixed 30 23 30 32 28 31

Haven't hrd enough 3 1 2 4 2 4

REFUSED - - - - - 0



16. Is your opinion of Bill Bradley favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 54% 49% 58% 55% 55% 53%

Unfavorable 13 20 9 13 15 12

Mixed 28 28 26 28 27 28

Haven't hrd enough 4 2 6 4 4 5

REFUSED - - - - - 1



17. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 29% 54% 13% 28% 31% 27%

Unfavorable 41 14 63 38 40 41

Mixed 27 30 21 29 27 27

Haven't hrd enough 3 1 3 5 2 4

REFUSED - - - - - 1



18. Is your opinion of Alan Keyes favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 15% 24% 11% 14% 20% 11%

Unfavorable 21 18 24 22 24 19

Mixed 16 17 15 18 18 15

Haven't hrd enough 46 40 50 46 37 54

REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1



19. Is your opinion of John McCain favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 46% 51% 38% 53% 54% 39%

Unfavorable 12 12 14 10 12 12

Mixed 27 27 30 24 23 31

Haven't hrd enough 14 10 18 13 11 17

REFUSED - - - - - 1

20. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 47% 11% 83% 41% 44% 50% Bush 41 81 10 43 46 37

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 1 3 3 3 DK/NA 7 4 4 10 5 9



21. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Bill Bradley the Democrat, and George W. Bush the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bradley 60% 31% 84% 58% 59% 60% Bush 32 62 10 33 33 30

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 1 3 DK/NA 6 6 3 6 5 7



22. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 38% 12% 70% 28% 34% 41% McCain 51 79 23 62 59 45

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 1 2 1 3 DK/NA 8 7 6 8 5 11



23. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Bill Bradley the Democrat, and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Bradley 49% 25% 71% 46% 48% 49% McCain 38 65 19 39 44 33

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 3 1 1 3 DK/NA 10 8 6 14 7 13



25. If the Democratic Primary for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore and Bill Bradley, for whom would you vote?

                          Registered Democrats
                          Tot     Men     Wom


Gore 40% 38% 42% Bradley 51 58 47

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 DK/NA 6 3 9



28. If the Republican Primary for President were being held today and the candidates were George W. Bush, Alan Keyes, and John McCain, for whom would you vote?

                          Registered Republicans
                          Tot     Men     Wom


George W. Bush 41% 40% 42% Alan Keyes 6 8 4 John McCain 41 42 40

WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 4 DK/NA 9 8 10