June 28, 2000 - Bush Closes Gap With Gore Among New Jersey Voters, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Corzine Has Big Lead Over Franks, With Many Undecided
Texas Gov. George W. Bush has closed a 13-point gap with Vice President Al Gore and the Republican now trails the Democrat 45 - 40 percent among New Jersey voters, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today. In a March 30 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University, Gore led Bush 50 - 37 percent.

If the Reform Party's Pat Buchanan and the Green Party's Ralph Nader are in the race, Gore edges Bush 41 - 37 percent, with 7 percent for Nader and 3 percent for Buchanan.

In the New Jersey Senate race, Democrat Jon Corzine leads Republican Bob Franks 46 - 26 percent, with 23 percent undecided.

"The national trends favoring George W. Bush are playing out in New Jersey. It makes the Garden State all the more critical for victory," said Quinnipiac University Political Science Professor Scott McLean.

"Bush has come back from a 13-point deficit in March to make it a very close race. A big factor in that shift for Bush in New Jersey has been men. In March, Bush trailed among men and today he leads by 7 points. Perhaps Bush has won back men who were left with a bad taste in their mouths after the nasty primary campaign with Senator McCain.

"Meanwhile, Gore has to be worried about losing 7 points of his advantage among women since March. They have not necessarily become Bush supporters, but he has to bring them back home if he wants to win in New Jersey.

Gore's favorability among New Jersey voters is split at 33 - 33 percent, with 26 percent mixed and 7 percent saying they have not heard enough to form an opinion. This is unchanged from the findings in the March 30 Quinnipiac University poll.

Bush's favorability is slightly negative at 30 - 34 percent, with 26 percent mixed and 9 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. This is an improvement from his negative 25 - 41 percent favorability March 30. Senate Race

By a 26 - 17 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Corzine, with 28 percent mixed and 28 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Franks' favorability is 12 - 7 percent, with 17 percent mixed and 62 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Asked to identify which issues they wanted the Senate candidates to discuss, 35 percent of New Jersey voters listed "taxes" in some form, followed by 29 percent who listed "education" and 23 percent who listed "healthcare/costs/insurance/HMOs."

Asked about the candidates' experience, 42 percent of voters say Corzine has the right kind of experience to be a Senator, while 25 percent say he doesn't and 33 percent are undecided.

Franks also has the right kind of experience to be a Senator, 42 percent say, while 11 percent say he doesn't and 48 percent are undecided.

"The name recognition and publicity Corzine generated for his nomination battle against Florio is now paying big dividends. Still, 23 percent of the voters don't know who to support right now. So even though most voters don't know Bob Franks today, things will certainly change by November," Dr. McLean said.

From June 20- 26, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,004 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data: www.quinnipiac.edu or (203) 582-520

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Whitman is handling her job as Governor of New Jersey?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 54% 71% 46% 52% 54% 55%

Disapprove 34 21 41 37 34 35

DK/NA 12 8 13 11 12 11



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 59% 26% 86% 57% 56% 62%

Disapprove 38 71 11 39 42 34

DK/NA 3 3 3 4 2 4



3. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for President -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 32% 41% 28% 29% 35% 29%

Some 43 40 45 42 41 45

Only a little 19 16 19 24 18 20

None at all 6 3 8 4 6 6

DK/NA - - - - - -



4. Is your opinion of Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 33% 9% 57% 28% 29% 35%

Unfavorable 33 69 9 31 40 29

Mixed 26 19 26 32 23 29

Haven't hrd enough 7 3 7 9 7 7

REFUSED - - 1 - 1 -



5. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 30% 67% 11% 22% 37% 24%

Unfavorable 34 8 51 36 31 36

Mixed 26 19 25 32 23 29

Haven't hrd enough 9 5 11 9 8 9

REFUSED 1 1 2 1 1 2



6. Is your opinion of Pat Buchanan favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 7% 11% 5% 7% 11% 5%

Unfavorable 50 36 56 53 52 47

Mixed 15 25 10 13 15 15

Haven't hrd enough 27 26 27 26 21 31

REFUSED 1 3 2 1 1 2



7. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 23% 20% 25% 26% 26% 21%

Unfavorable 19 26 16 18 23 16

Mixed 20 20 15 21 21 19

Haven't hrd enough 36 32 43 33 29 42

REFUSED 1 2 2 1 1 2



8. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 45% 9% 81% 38% 40% 49% Bush 40 86 9 39 47 35

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 1 6 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 1 4 4 2 DK/NA 9 3 9 13 7 11



9. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, Pat Buchanan the Reform Party candidate and Ralph Nader the Green Party candidate for whom would you vote?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 41% 8% 76% 34% 35% 45% Bush 37 80 7 35 44 32 Buchanan 3 2 2 3 3 2 Nader 7 5 5 11 8 6

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 9 3 7 13 6 12



12. How much attention have you been paying to the election campaign for United States Senator -- a lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 25% 32% 25% 21% 32% 20%

Some 35 35 33 37 31 38

Only a little 26 24 25 27 25 26

None at all 14 9 17 15 12 15

DK/NA - - - - - 1



13. Is your opinion of Bob Franks favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 12% 26% 8% 9% 15% 11%

Unfavorable 7 6 7 7 7 7

Mixed 17 16 16 20 19 16

Hvn't hrd enough 62 52 69 63 59 65

REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1



14. Is your opinion of Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 26% 19% 34% 24% 24% 28%

Unfavorable 17 24 10 17 22 13

Mixed 28 28 29 27 27 30

Hvn't hrd enough 28 27 26 32 27 29

REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1



15. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Bob Franks the Republican for whom would you vote?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Corzine 46% 21% 71% 44% 43% 49% Franks 26 58 6 24 33 21

WLDN'T VOTE (VOL) 5 3 5 4 4 5 DK/NA 23 18 18 28 20 25



16. What are the issues or problems that you most want to hear the candidates for United States Senator from New Jersey talk about during the campaign? (Column percentages may add up to more than 100% because up to 3 responses were allowed)

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Crime/Violence 3% 2% 3% 4% 3% 2% Drugs 2 1 1 2 1 2 Guns/Gun control 7 7 9 7 6 9 Police (general) 1 1 - 1 2 - Death penalty 1 1 2 1 2 1 Budget/Deficit 2 2 2 1 2 1 Spending priorities 2 3 1 1 3 1 Reduce size of Gov/ Reduce spending 1 2 - 2 2 1 Economy 2 3 2 2 2 3 Unemployment/Jobs 4 1 6 3 3 5 Taxes 28 34 24 28 31 26 Federal income tax 1 1 1 1 1 1 State income tax 1 3 2 1 2 1 Property tax 5 5 5 5 6 5 Racism/Race relations 1 - 1 - - 1 Poverty/Homelessness 1 - 3 1 1 1 Housing costs/ Availability 2 - 4 2 1 3 Welfare 3 3 3 2 4 2 Immigration 1 2 - 1 1 1 Children's issues 3 1 5 2 1 4 Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 23 14 31 24 18 27 Medicare 7 6 7 7 6 7 Abortion 6 11 4 6 5 7 Social Security 15 17 12 15 15 14 Elderly/Senior issues 4 3 5 4 3 5 Education 29 19 35 31 24 33 College tuition 1 - 1 - - 1 Violence in schools 1 - 1 1 - 1 Environment/Pollution 11 5 13 13 10 11 Open space/Urban sprawl 2 2 2 2 3 1 Lack of mass transit/ Public trans. 1 2 1 1 2 - Auto insurance 8 8 11 5 7 8 Gas prices 3 4 2 4 4 3 Politicians/Government 1 2 - 2 2 - Campaign finance reform 3 3 2 5 4 2 Foreign policy 1 1 1 2 2 1 National defense issues 2 2 1 1 3 1 Other 14 17 11 16 17 12 DK/NA 12 15 11 10 10 13



17. Do you think Jon Corzine has the right kind of experience to be a Senator from New Jersey, or not?
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 42% 37% 50% 39% 42% 42%

No 25 30 16 27 30 21

DK/NA 33 33 33 34 28 37



18. Do you think Bob Franks has the right kind of experience to be a Senator from New Jersey, or not?
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 42% 55% 35% 39% 51% 35%

No 11 5 15 10 10 11

DK/NA 48 40 50 50 39 54



19. Do you think of Jon Corzine as more of a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Liberal 37% 50% 33% 34% 46% 31%

Moderate 26 20 30 27 23 28

Conservative 10 6 13 11 9 11

DK/NA 27 24 25 28 22 30



20. Do you think Jon Corzine is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Too liberal 20% 39% 6% 19% 27% 14%

Too conservative 4 1 6 5 4 4

About right 45 28 60 46 42 48

DK/NA 31 33 28 30 27 34



21. Do you think of Bob Franks as more of a liberal, moderate, or conservative?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Liberal 4% 3% 5% 6% 5% 4%

Moderate 26 39 16 27 32 22

Conservative 21 19 28 18 23 20

DK/NA 48 39 50 49 40 54



22. Do you think Bob Franks is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?

                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Too liberal 4% 7% 2% 4% 6% 4%

Too conservative 13 6 19 12 15 12

About right 35 48 27 34 39 31

DK/NA 48 39 51 49 40 53