October 2, 2000 - Gore Leads Bush 50-36 Among New Jersey Likely Voters Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Debate Beats Baseball 12 -1
Vice President Al Gore has a 50 - 36 percent lead over Texas Gov. George W. Bush among New Jersey likely voters, with 1 percent for Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan and 6 percent for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

Among registered voters, Gore leads Bush 49 - 35 percent, with 1 percent for Buchanan and 6 percent for Nader. An August 24 poll of New Jersey registered voters by the independent Quinnipiac University showed Gore with a 49 - 37 percent lead.

From September 26 - October 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,045 New Jersey registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3 percent. The sample includes 820 likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.4 percent.

"Vice President Gore's campaign keeps chugging along since the convention and the key is his support among men and independents. Bush still hasn't regained his early big lead among men, and can't even make a dent in Gore's appeal with women," said Quinnipiac University Political Science Professor Scott McLean.

Gore leads 44 - 35 percent among independents and 56 - 29 percent among women, while 46 percent of men back Bush, with 43 percent for Gore, a statistical tie.

Gore's favorability among New Jersey likely voters is 49 - 31 percent, with 18 percent mixed and 1 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Bush's favorability is 36 - 38 percent, with 25 percent mixed and 1 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Buchanan has a very negative 5 - 59 percent favorability among likely voters, while Nader gets a split 23 -27 favorability.
                               Presidential Debate



By a 61 - 5 percent margin, New Jersey likely voters say they will watch the presidential debate October 3, instead of a Major League Baseball playoff game. Apparently adept at channel-surfing or the use of the VCR, 17 percent of voters say they plan to watch both, while 14 percent say they are not watching the debate or baseball.

Voters are split 50 - 48 percent on whether the debate should be limited to Gore and Bush or whether it should include Buchanan and Nader as well.

"This debate seems to be more important to voters than baseball and so the pressure will be on Bush with a great chance to hit a home run -- or strike out -- with New Jersey voters," Dr. McLean said. Social Security

It's a good idea to allow individuals to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes on their own, according to 54 percent of New Jersey likely voters; 39 percent say this is a bad idea, while 7 percent are undecided.

And 42 percent of likely voters say there will be enough money in the Social Security system to pay their benefits when they retire, while 38 percent say there will not be enough money.

"Most likely voters, including most men, favor Bush's proposal to let people invest Social Security money in the stock market. Bush could gain support if he reminds men and independents where he stands on such issues," Dr. McLean said.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu

9. Is your opinion of Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                          .............  Likely Voters  .............
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 49% 13% 81% 44% 43% 55%

Unfavorable 31 66 4 32 40 24

Mixed 18 19 14 22 16 20

Haven't hrd enough 1 1 1 2 2 1

REFUSED - - - - - -

Registered Voters ......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 47% 13% 78% 42% 41% 52%

Unfavorable 29 64 5 31 38 22

Mixed 20 21 16 22 17 23

Haven't hrd enough 3 2 2 4 3 3

REFUSED - - - - 1 -



10. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          .............  Likely Voters  .............
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 36% 77% 9% 32% 42% 31%

Unfavorable 38 5 67 34 36 39

Mixed 25 16 22 33 21 27

Haven't hrd enough 1 - 2 1 1 1

REFUSED - 1 - - 1 -

Registered Voters ......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 34% 73% 9% 32% 40% 29%

Unfavorable 37 7 65 32 35 38

Mixed 26 19 22 33 22 30

Haven't hrd enough 2 - 3 2 2 3

REFUSED - 1 1 - - 1



11. Is your opinion of Pat Buchanan favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          .............  Likely Voters  .............
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 5% 6% 3% 8% 6% 4%

Unfavorable 59 54 64 58 61 56

Mixed 19 26 13 18 17 21

Haven't hrd enough 16 12 18 15 14 18

REFUSED 1 1 1 2 2 1



Registered Voters ......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 6% 7% 4% 8% 8% 4%

Unfavorable 53 50 60 52 57 51

Mixed 18 24 13 17 16 19

Haven't hrd enough 22 17 22 21 18 25

REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 1



12. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                          .............  Likely Voters  .............
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 23% 15% 28% 25% 22% 23%

Unfavorable 27 33 23 27 29 25

Mixed 26 30 21 29 27 26

Haven't hrd enough 23 20 26 19 20 25

REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 1



Registered Voters ......................... Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom

Favorable 21% 14% 25% 25% 23% 20%

Unfavorable 25 31 23 24 28 22

Mixed 25 29 20 27 25 25

Haven't hrd enough 28 24 31 24 23 31

REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 2



13. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? (Likely Voters)
                          .............  Likely Voters  .............
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 54% 10% 92% 50% 46% 61% Bush 38 84 4 37 47 31

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - 2 1 1 DK/NA 7 5 4 11 6 7



14. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, Pat Buchanan the Reform Party candidate and Ralph Nader the Green Party candidate for whom would you vote? (Likely Voters)
                          .............  Likely Voters  .............
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 50% 9% 87% 44% 43% 56% Bush 36 82 4 35 46 29 Buchanan 1 1 1 2 1 2 Nader 6 2 4 10 5 7

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - 1 - DK/NA 6 5 4 9 5 7



13. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat and George W. Bush the Republican for whom would you vote? (Registered Voters)
                          Registered Voters .........................
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 53% 10% 89% 50% 46% 59% Bush 36 82 5 35 44 29

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 - 1 - 1 DK/NA 8 6 5 12 7 9



14. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, Pat Buchanan the Reform Party candidate and Ralph Nader the Green Party candidate for whom would you vote? (Registered Voters)

                          Registered Voters .........................
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 49% 9% 84% 44% 42% 55% Bush 35 81 5 33 44 28 Buchanan 1 2 1 2 1 2 Nader 6 3 5 10 5 6

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 DK/NA 8 6 4 10 7 9



16. Do you plan on watching the first televised debate between Bush and Gore on Tuesday, October 3, or do you plan on watching the major league baseball playoff game, or do you plan on watching both, or watching neither?

                          .............  Likely Voters  .............
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Watching debate 61% 65% 65% 55% 51% 69%

Watching baseball 5 2 6 6 8 2

Both 17 19 14 18 25 11

Neither 14 11 12 17 13 15

DK/NA 3 3 4 3 3 3



16a. Do you think the televised Presidential debates this fall should be between Al Gore and George W. Bush or should the Presidential debates be between Al Gore, George W. Bush, Ralph Nader, and Pat Buchanan? (Likely Voters)
                          .............  Likely Voters  .............
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore & Bush 50% 58% 50% 43% 47% 52%

Gore, Bush, Nader, Buchanan 48 39 47 55 50 46

DK/NA 2 3 2 2 3 2



17. What do you think of the nation's Social Security system? Do you think that by the time you retire there will be enough money in the system to pay you the benefits you are entitled to, or do you think there will not be enough money left to pay you the benefits?

                          .............  Likely Voters  .............
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes/Will be benefits 42% 39% 39% 50% 46% 39%

No/Not enough left 38 44 39 30 33 42

RETIRED/RECEIVING SOC SEC(VOL) 13 10 15 13 13 12

DK/NA 7 8 7 7 7 7



18. Some people have suggested allowing individuals to invest portions of their Social Security taxes on their own, which might allow them to make more money for their retirement, but would involve greater risk. Do you think allowing individuals to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes on their own is a good idea or a bad idea?

                          .............  Likely Voters  .............
                          Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Good idea 54% 70% 39% 56% 58% 50%

Bad idea 39 24 52 37 36 41

DK/NA 7 5 9 7 6 9



17. What do you think of the nation's Social Security system? Do you think that by the time you retire there will be enough money in the system to pay you the benefits you are entitled to, or do you think there will not be enough money left to pay you the benefits?

                          .............  Likely Voters  .............
                                          Baby
                          Tot     Gen X   Boomers Matures


Yes/Will be benefits 42% 26% 42% 52%

No/Not enough left 38 69 48 5

RETIRED/RECEIVING SOC SEC(VOL) 13 - - 38

DK/NA 7 5 10 5



18. Some people have suggested allowing individuals to invest portions of their Social Security taxes on their own, which might allow them to make more money for their retirement, but would involve greater risk. Do you think allowing individuals to invest a portion of their Social Security taxes on their own is a good idea or a bad idea?

                          .............  Likely Voters  .............
                                          Baby
                          Tot     Gen X   Boomers Matures


Good idea 54% 70% 60% 37%

Bad idea 39 27 35 51

DK/NA 7 3 6 12