October 26, 2000 - Bush Cuts Gore Lead In Half In New Jersey Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Say Gore Is Better On Most Issues
Vice President Al Gore has a 47 - 41 percent lead over Texas Gov. George W. Bush among New Jersey likely voters, with 1 percent for Reform Party candidate Pat Buchanan and 4 percent for Green Party candidate Ralph Nader, according to a Quinnipiac University Poll released today.

An October 2 poll of New Jersey likely voters by the independent Quinnipiac University showed Gore with a 50 - 36 percent lead.

From October 18 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 909 New Jersey likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percent.

"Bush had a good October and Gore had a lousy month. In a close race, it comes down to which way the undecided and independent voters break. So far, Gore is winning the independent vote. Bush did better than expected in the debates and he's gone from a tie with male voters to a 15-point lead since October 2," said Quinnipiac University Political Science Professor Scott McLean.

"Gore's favorability has dropped, 16 points among men and 11 points among women. At the same time, Bush's favorability has gone up 18 points with men, while women still give him a negative 8-point favorability."

Gore leads 46 - 33 percent among independents and 55 - 31 percent among women, while Bush leads 52 - 37 percent among men, up from a 47 - 46 percent split October 2.

Gore's favorability among New Jersey likely voters is 42 - 37 percent, with 21 percent mixed and 1 percent saying they haven't heard enough to form an opinion. This is down from Gore's 49 - 31 favorability in the October 2 Quinnipiac University poll.

Bush's favorability is 41 -35 percent, with 24 percent mixed. This is even with Gore's and up from Bush's 36 - 38 favorability October 2.

Asked to list the national priorities on which they would like the next President to concentrate, and allowed to give more than one answer, New Jersey likely voters say:
  • Elderly issues -- 42 percent;
  • Education -- 39 percent;
  • Foreign policy -- 38 percent;
  • Health care -- 29 percent;
  • The economy -- 19 percent;
  • Taxes -- 18 percent.
New Jersey likely voters say Gore does better than Bush on key issues:
  • 47 - 41 percent on education;
  • 49 - 38 percent on health care;
  • 47 - 40 percent on Social Security;
  • 45 - 39 percent on the economy;
  • 54 - 36 percent on foreign affairs;
  • 51 - 28 percent on prescription drugs for the elderly;
Voters say 46 - 40 percent that Bush does a better job on taxes.

"Voters say Gore does a better job on almost every issue which they consider important. So why is he slipping? Right now voters are more concerned about Gore's lack of honesty than Bush's lack of knowledge," Dr. McLean said.

"It is interesting that the Middle East situation has raised voter focus on foreign policy and those who care most about foreign affairs see Bush as equally capable."

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu

6. Is your opinion of Al Gore favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                            .............  Likely Voters  
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 42% 6% 80% 39% 34% 48%

Unfavorable 37 79 5 27 47 28

Mixed 21 14 14 32 19 22

Haven't hrd enough 1 - - 1 - 1

REFUSED - - 1 - - -



7. Is your opinion of George W. Bush favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                            .............  Likely Voters  
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 41% 84% 8% 32% 51% 32%

Unfavorable 35 3 70 29 27 41

Mixed 24 13 21 38 22 26

Haven't hrd enough - - - 1 - 1

REFUSED - - 1 - - -



8. Is your opinion of Pat Buchanan favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 8% 15% 2% 6% 10% 6%

Unfavorable 60 50 69 59 61 58

Mixed 14 19 8 15 14 14

Haven't hrd enough 17 14 18 18 12 20

REFUSED 2 2 2 1 2 2



9. Is your opinion of Ralph Nader favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                            .............  Likely Voters  
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 23% 12% 26% 28% 25% 21%

Unfavorable 30 43 24 25 32 28

Mixed 24 19 27 26 23 24

Haven't hrd enough 20 23 20 18 16 24

REFUSED 3 3 3 3 4 3



10. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates were Al Gore the Democrat, George W. Bush the Republican, Pat Buchanan the Reform Party candidate and Ralph Nader the Green Party candidate for whom would you vote?
                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 47% 6% 89% 46% 37% 55% Bush 41 89 4 33 52 31

Buchanan 1 1 - 1 1 - Nader 4 1 2 6 4 3

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 1 - DK/NA 7 2 5 14 5 9



11. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                         ... Likely Voters ....
                             Gore     Bush
                             Voters   Voters


Made up 82% 89%

Might change 18 10

DK/NA - 1



12. Would you describe your support for Gore/Bush as strongly favoring him, or do you like Gore/Bush but with reservations, or do you support Gore/Bush because you dislike the other candidates?

                         ... Likely Voters ....
                             Gore     Bush
                             Voters   Voters


Strongly favor 54% 63%

Like with reservations 34 28

Dislike other candidate 11 8

DK/NA 1 1



14. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what are the things that you like most about Al Gore and George Bush?

                                             ... Likely Voters ...
                                             Gore            Bush


Experience 18% 7% Experience (general reference) 11 3 National Exp/Knows Washington 5 - Good VP 1 - Good Governor - 3 Good Political Record 1 1

Intelligent/Knowledgeable 12 2 Intelligent/Knowledgeable (gen. ref.) 10 2 Knowledge of Foreign Affairs 2 -

Leadership 4 6 Good Leadership Qualities (gen. ref.) 1 2 Diplomatic - 1 Clear on Issues/Believes in What he does 1 1 Fights for what he believes in/Aggressive 1 1 Good Speaker 1 1

Domestic Issues 56 42 Agree on Issues/Policies(gen. ref.) 4 4 Stand on Taxes 4 9 Stand on Education 10 6 Stand on Abortion 6 4 Stand on Economy 3 2 Stand on Environment 8 - Stand on Gun Control 2 1 Stand on Crime/Death Penalty - 2 Stand on Healthcare 5 1 Stand on Medicare/Prescription Drugs 5 2 Stand on Race/Relations/Civil Rights 1 - Stand on Social Security 6 5 Stand on Size of Govt. - 6 Stand on Usage of Budget Surplus 1 - Potential Sup. Court Choices 1 -

Foreign Policy 1 4 Agree on Foreign Policy 1 2 Stand on Defense Issues - 2

Honesty/Integrity 7 19 Morality/Ethics/Family Man 6 6 Compassionate/Cares For People 1 1

Personality/Style 5 10 Personality (gen. ref.) 4 9 Regular Guy/Down to Earth. 1 1

Debates 1 1 Party 4 3 Political Philosophy 1 2 Running Mate 1 1 Support Of Clinton Administration 3 - Not An Insider Politician/Fresh Face - 2 Family Ties/Wife 1 5 cont'd

Group Reference 7 1 Stand on Women's Rights 2 - Supports/Fights for poor 1 - Supports/Fights for middle/working class 4 1

Other 13 16 DK/NA 30 34



15. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what are the things that you dislike most about .Al Gore and George Bush?

                                             ... Likely Voters ...
                                             Gore            Bush


Experience 3% 15% Lacking Experience/Political Record 1 10 Poor Political Record 1 3 Not Qualified 1 2

Lacks Intelligence/Knowledge 1 14 Not Intelligent/Not knowledgeable 1 9 No knowledge of Foreign policy - 4 Lack of Depth/Shallow - 1

Leadership 5 8 Lack of Leadership Qualities 1 - Bad Speaker/Does Not Communicate Well 2 4 Weak on issues/wishy-washy/vague/indecisive 2 4

Campaign Style - 1 Debate Performance/Style 4 2

Domestic Issues 22 39 Disagree on Issues/Policies (gen. ref.) 2 1 Stand on Taxes 4 5 Stand on Education 2 3 Stand on Abortion 3 10 Stand on Economy 1 1 Stand on Environment 1 2 Stand on Gun Control 1 3 Stand on Crime/Death Penalty - 6 Stand on Healthcare 1 1 Stand on Medicare/Prescription Drugs 1 1 Stand on Social Security 1 3 Stand on Size of Govt 4 1 Stand on Usage of Budget Surplus - 1 Potential Sup. Court Choices - 1

Foreign Policy 2 2 Foreign Policy (gen. ref.) 1 2 Stand on Defense Issues 1 -

Honesty/Integrity 36 9 Lacking Honesty/Integrity 29 6 Inconsistent/Hypocrite/Panders for Votes 7 3

Lacking Morality/Ethics 1 -

Personality 22 9 Personality/Style (gen. ref.) 12 6 Arrogant/Smug 7 2 Boring/Stiff 3 - Just Don't Like Him - 1

Things come too easy/Too wealthy/Spoiled - 1 Not compassionate/Doesn't care about people 1 -

Party 2 1 Political Philosophy 2 2 Ties With Clinton 9 -

Group Reference 1 8 Stand on Women's Rights - 2 Affiliation with Religious Right - 1 Represents concerns of wealthy 1 5

Scandals 3 1 Scandal (gen. ref.) 1 - Drug/Alcohol issues of past - 1 Campaign Fund Raising Scandal 2 -

Family Ties/Wife 1 3 Insider Politician 1 -

Other 14 12 DK/NA 24 26



19. What do you think are the most important problems or issues facing the country that you want the next President to concentrate on?

                                        ... Likely Voters 


Crime 5% Crime/Violence (general reference) 3 Drugs 2

Guns/Gun Control 4 Terrorism 1

Budget 9 Budget (gen. ref.) 5 Spending Priorities 1 Reduce size of govt./Reduce spending 3

Economy 19 Economy (gen. ref.) 16 Unemployment/Jobs 2 Gas Prices 1

Taxes 18 Racism/Race Relations 2

Poverty/Homelessness 4 Welfare 1 Immigration 2 Middle Class/Working reference 1 Children's Issues 2 Women's Issues 1

Ethics/Morality/Values 4 Lack of Ethics/Morality 3 Family Breakdown/Family Values 1

Healthcare/Costs/Insurance/HMO's 29 Abortion 4

Elderly Issues 42 Medicare/Prescription Drugs 11 Social Security 28 Elderly/Senior Issues (gen.ref.) 3

Education 39 Education (gen. ref.) 37 College Tuition 1 Violence in Schools 1

Environment/Pollution 5

Politicians/Government 2 Campaign Finance Reform 1

Foreign Policy 38 Foreign Policy (gen.ref.) 26 Priorities Should Be at Home, Not Abroad 2 National Defense Issues 10

Other 11 DK/NA 2



20. Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on ... 'issue'. (Issues mentioned as 'Most important' problem on Q19)

                        ......... Likely Voters ..........
                 who said ...'issue' was most important problem on Q19.
                  
                                          Same -
                        Gore     Bush     No diff.   DK/NA


... education 53% 37% 7% 3% ... health care 60 26 7 7 ... Social Security 52 42 3 3 ... taxes 29 66 3 2 ... economy 50 37 9 3 ... foreign policy 48 45 4 3



20. Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on gun control?
                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 56% 24% 85% 58% 52% 59% Bush 31 61 8 27 38 26

SAME/NO DIFFERENCE 5 6 1 5 4 5 DK/NA 9 9 5 11 6 11



21. Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on abortion?
                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 53% 24% 82% 53% 46% 60% Bush 31 59 9 27 38 25

SAME/NO DIFFERENCE 4 5 3 5 5 4 DK/NA 11 13 6 15 11 11



22. Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on education?
                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 47% 10% 85% 44% 39% 54% Bush 41 83 7 37 51 33

SAME/NO DIFFERENCE 7 5 6 10 7 8 DK/NA 5 3 2 8 4 6



23. Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on health care?
                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 49% 11% 87% 48% 42% 55% Bush 38 74 7 34 44 33

SAME/NO DIFFERENCE 6 7 2 9 8 4 DK/NA 7 8 4 10 6 8



24. Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on Social Security?
                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 47% 8% 84% 48% 38% 55% Bush 40 80 8 35 50 32

SAME/NO DIFFERENCE 6 6 4 8 7 6 DK/NA 6 6 5 9 5 8



25. Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on taxes?

                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 40% 8% 77% 36% 31% 49% Bush 46 84 12 43 56 37

SAME/NO DIFFERENCE 8 4 7 13 9 7 DK/NA 6 4 5 8 4 7



26. Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on the economy?
                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 45% 10% 85% 42% 37% 52% Bush 39 76 7 35 47 32

SAME/NO DIFFERENCE 8 8 4 10 9 6 DK/NA 8 7 3 13 7 10



27. Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on crime?
                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 31% 7% 59% 28% 22% 39% Bush 48 78 22 45 61 37

SAME/NO DIFFERENCE 10 5 11 13 10 10 DK/NA 11 10 9 14 7 14



28. Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on foreign affairs?
                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 54% 20% 84% 58% 49% 59% Bush 36 70 10 31 43 30

SAME/NO DIFFERENCE 4 5 1 6 5 4 DK/NA 5 5 6 5 3 8



29. Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on the cost of prescription drugs for the elderly?

                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 51% 19% 84% 50% 48% 53% Bush 28 57 6 23 30 27

SAME/NO DIFFERENCE 9 13 3 12 11 8 DK/NA 11 11 8 14 11 11



30. Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on the environment?
                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 64% 40% 88% 66% 66% 63% Bush 20 43 3 16 22 19

SAME/NO DIFFERENCE 6 7 3 7 5 7 DK/NA 9 10 5 12 6 11



31. Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on the price of home heating oil and gasoline?
                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 31% 5% 57% 31% 25% 35% Bush 38 68 14 35 48 30

SAME/NO DIFFERENCE 13 10 11 15 15 12

DK/NA 18 17 18 19 12 23



32. Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on campaign finance reform?
                            .............  Likely Voters  .............
                            Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Gore 32% 10% 59% 27% 30% 33% Bush 34 62 11 31 40 29

SAME/NO DIFFERENCE 17 15 12 25 19 16 DK/NA 17 14 17 17 11 22



xx. (Summary Table) Do you think that Al Gore or George W. Bush would do a better job on .?

                                 Likely Voters 
                                 Gore    Bush


.. gun control 56% 31% .. abortion 53 31 .. education 47 41 .. health care 49 38 .. Social Security 47 40 .. taxes 40 46 .. economy 45 39 .. crime 31 48 .. foreign affairs 54 36 .. prescrip. drugs(Medicare) 51 28 .. environment 64 20 .. price heating oil, gas 31 38 .. campaign finance reform 32 34