February 10, 1999 - Impeachment Threatens GOP In New Jersey, Quinnipiac College Poll Finds; Voters Still Believe Clinton Feels Their Pain
The impeachment of President Clinton is hurting Republicans more than Clinton in New Jersey and threatens GOP candidates in this year's Assembly races and next year's Congressional campaigns, according to a Quinnipiac College Poll released today.

New Jersey voters approve of Clinton 60 - 38 percent, while they disapprove 65 - 27 percent of the way Senate Republicans are handling impeachment. They also disapprove 50 - 41 percent of the way Senate Democrats are handling impeachment, the independent Quinnipiac College Poll finds.

Asked which party they would like to see control the State Assembly after the November elections, 45 percent of New Jersey voters want the Democrats, while 39 percent want the Republicans. Because of the Republicans' handling of impeachment, only 14 percent of voters say they are more likely to vote for GOP candidates next year, while 41 percent say they are less likely and 43 percent say impeachment won't make a difference.

The Democrats' handling of impeachment leaves 26 percent of voters more likely to vote for Democratic candidates in 2000, while 24 percent say they are less likely, with 47 percent saying it makes no difference.

"Storm clouds rumble ominously over Republicans at every level. The party's image is negative, while the Democrats' image is positive. Republicans in the U.S. Senate get abysmal marks for their impeachment performance," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac College Polling Institute.

"It doesn't get any better closer to home. New Jersey voters don't think the GOP should be in control of the Assembly after this year's elections," Carroll said. "While the results will be decided in 40 very different Assembly districts, with individual personalities and local issues playing an important part, the GOP starts off with a big negative.

"The same conditions apply for next year, when New Jersey voters pick 13 members of Congress and one U.S. Senator. Republican candidates must get out from under those impeachment clouds or risk getting soaked."

Only 29 percent of New Jersey voters say Clinton "shares the moral values most Americans try to live by," while 65 percent say he does not.

But by a 67 - 29 percent margin, voters say Clinton understands the needs and problems of the average American family.

Clinton's favorability is 42 - 39 percent, with 18 percent mixed. The Republican Party's favorability is a negative 23 - 37 percent, with 34 percent mixed, while the Democrats get a 35 - 24 percent favorability, with 35 percent mixed.

That's a reversal of a June 26, 1996, Quinnipiac College Poll, when GOP favorability was 35 - 26 percent and Democratic favorability was 24 - 25 percent.

Deciding Clinton's fate, New Jersey voters are:
  • 66 - 31 percent against the Senate removing him from office;
  • 66 - 33 percent in favor of him finishing his term and not resigning;
  • 57 - 38 percent in favor of censure.
"Get it over with and get back to business. That's the opinion of New Jersey voters who don't want Clinton removed from office," Carroll said. "They don't think Clinton is very moral, but they do think -- more than 2 - 1 -- that he understands their problems. Even 48 percent of Republicans say Clinton feels their pain."

From February 3 - 8, Quinnipiac College surveyed 926 New Jersey residents who say they are registered voters. The poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent.

The Quinnipiac College Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill Clinton is handling his job as President?

                                                                 Nov 11
                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom   1998


Approve 60% 34% 91% 55% 57% 63% 66%

Disapprove 38 64 8 42 40 36 32

DK/NA 2 2 1 3 3 2 2



5. Is your opinion of the Republican Party favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about it?

                                                                 June 26
                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom   1996


Favorable 23% 55% 4% 16% 23% 22% 35%

Unfavorable 37 9 69 32 38 35 26

Mixed 34 34 22 43 35 34 30

Haven't hrd enough 6 1 6 7 3 8 8

REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 1



6. Is your opinion of the Democratic Party favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about it?

                                                                 June 26
                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom   1996


Favorable 35% 9% 72% 25% 31% 38% 24%

Unfavorable 24 50 4 24 29 20 25

Mixed 35 38 21 43 36 34 43

Haven't hrd enough 5 3 3 7 3 6 7

REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 1



8. Which party would you like to see control the New Jersey State Assembly after the elections in November - the Democratic party or the Republican party?

                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Democratic party 45% 7% 90% 38% 41% 48%

Republican party 39 86 5 33 41 36

DK/NA 16 7 5 29 17 15



26. Is your opinion of President Bill Clinton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                                                                 Nov 11
                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom   1998


Favorable 42% 17% 71% 38% 42% 42% 48%

Unfavorable 39 66 9 43 42 36 32

Mixed 18 16 20 18 16 21 20

Haven't hrd enough 1 - 1 1 - 1 -

REFUSED - - - - - - 1



27. How closely have you been following the U.S. Senate impeachment trial of President Clinton? Would you say that you have been following it very closely, somewhat closely, not too closely, or not at all?

                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Very closely 27% 32% 28% 25% 31% 23%

Smwht closely 43 40 45 42 42 44

Not too closely 23 23 20 26 22 25

Not at all 6 5 7 5 5 8

DK/NA - - - 1 - 1



28. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Senate Republicans are handling the impeachment trial of President Clinton?

                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Approve 27% 47% 11% 26% 30% 25%

Disapprove 65 44 84 67 65 66

DK/NA 7 9 5 7 5 9



29. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the Senate Democrats are handling the impeachment trial of President Clinton?

                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Approve 41% 27% 69% 32% 41% 42%

Disapprove 50 62 25 61 53 47

DK/NA 9 11 6 7 7 11



30. Given what you know right now, do you believe the Senate should or should not remove President Clinton from office?

                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Should remove 31% 57% 5% 33% 32% 29%

Should not remove 66 39 95 62 65 67

DK/NA 3 4 - 5 3 4



31. Given what you know right now, do you think the Senate should censure President Clinton - that is, should the Senate vote to publicly reprimand President Clinton or not?

                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Should censure 57% 61% 56% 57% 56% 58%

Should not censure 38 35 40 36 39 37

DK/NA 5 4 3 6 5 5



32. Given what you know right now, do you think it would be better for the country if Bill Clinton resigned from office, or do you think it would be better for the country if Bill Clinton finished his term as President?

                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Resign 33% 62% 5% 36% 35% 31%

Finish term 66 36 95 62 63 67

DK/NA 2 2 - 2 2 2



33. Has the handling of the impeachment matter by House and Senate Republicans made you more likely to vote for Republican candidates in elections in the year 2000, less likely to vote for Republican candidates, or hasn't it had an effect?

                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


More likely 14% 35% 2% 9% 13% 15%

Less likely 41 12 72 36 39 42

NO effect 43 49 25 52 46 39

DK/NA 2 3 1 3 1 3



34. Has the handling of the impeachment matter by House and Senate Democrats made you more likely to vote for Democratic candidates in elections in the year 2000, less likely to vote for Democratic candidates, or hasn't it had an effect?

                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


More likely 26% 6% 52% 22% 24% 29%

Less likely 24 50 3 23 24 24

NO effect 47 41 43 53 50 45

DK/NA 2 2 1 3 2 3



35. Do you think Bill Clinton shares the moral values most Americans try to live by, or not?

                                                                  Aug 6
                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom   1998


Yes 29% 14% 47% 26% 28% 30% 34%

No 65 84 45 68 67 64 57

DK/NA 6 2 8 6 6 6 9



36. Do you think Bill Clinton can be trusted to keep his word as President, or not?
                                                                  Aug 6
                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom   1998


Yes 50% 22% 83% 45% 44% 55% 56%

No 47 76 15 51 52 42 42

DK/NA 3 2 2 5 4 3 2



37. Do you think Bill Clinton understands the needs and problems of the average American family, or not?

                                                                  Aug 6
                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom   1998


Yes 67% 48% 91% 63% 65% 68% 68%

No 29 48 6 32 31 27 31

DK/NA 4 4 4 5 3 5 1



38. Do you think Bill Clinton has strong qualities of leadership, or not?

                         Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom


Yes 69% 46% 92% 67% 67% 70%

No 30 52 7 32 31 28

DK/NA 1 2 1 1 1 1