June 1, 2005 - Forrester Tops Schundler By 11 Points In GOP Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Republicans Like Forrester's Tax Plan Best
Douglas Forrester leads Bret Schundler 40 - 29 percent among New Jersey likely Republican primary voters in the race for Governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Among the five other Republican contenders, John Murphy has 9 percent and no other candidate tops 4 percent. Another 12 percent are undecided.

By an identical 40 - 29 percent margin, voters say Forrester has a better property tax plan than Schundler.

In a May 19 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University Forrester was ahead of Schundler 39 - 33 percent.

In today's survey, 58 percent of likely Republican voters say their mind is made up, while 42 percent say they might change their mind. Among Forrester voters, 59 percent say their mind is made up, with 40 percent who might change. Among Schundler voters, 65 percent say their mind is made up, with 35 percent who might change.

In a head to head matchup, Forrester tops Schundler 48 - 40 percent among likely Republican voters, virtually unchanged since May 19.

"Bret Schundler seems to be fading in the stretch as Douglas Forrester stays on pace in the Republican race for Governor. But this is the type of a primary where surprises happen and an expected small turnout can produce unexpected results," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Republican voters aren't thrilled with any of the candidates as evidenced by the fact that 42 percent say they could change their mind; 20 percent are voting for someone other than the two frontrunners and 12 percent are still undecided," Richards added.

Among New Jersey likely Republican primary voters, 63 percent say they have seen television advertising for a GOP candidate for Governor. Of that 63 percent, 58 percent recall that the most recent TV commercial they saw was paid for by Forrester, while 8 percent say Schundler.

Also among that 63 percent, 65 percent say the TV ads will have no impact on their vote. But this group backs Forrester 42 - 27 percent over Schundler.

"Forrester's multi-million dollar advertising barrage goes virtually unanswered on New Jersey's airwaves," Richards said.

Voters also say 56 - 27 percent that Forrester has the best chance of beating U.S. Sen. Jon Corzine, the likely Democratic candidate for Governor.

From May 22 - 29, Quinnipiac University surveyed 302 New Jersey likely Republican primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the Republican primary for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Douglas Forrester, Bret Schundler, Todd Caliguire, Paul DiGaetano, Steve Lonegan, John Murphy, and Bob Schroeder, for whom would you vote? If undecided: As of today, do you lean more to Forrester, Schundler, Caliguire, DiGaetano, Lonegan, Murphy, or Schroeder?

* This table includes Leaners

                        Likely  
                        Voters
Forrester               40%     
Schundler               29      
Caliguire                2       
DiGaetano                2       
Lonegan                  4       
Murphy                   9      
Schroeder                3       
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          -       
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         -       
DK/NA                   12      




2. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

                        Likely Voters..........
                                Forstr  Schndlr
                        Tot     Vtr q1  Vtr q1 


Made up 58% 59% 65% Might change 42 40 35 DK/NA - - -



3. Suppose Douglas Forrester and Bret Schundler were the only candidates running in the Republican primary for governor, for whom would you vote? If undecided: As of today, do you lean more to Forrester, or Schundler?

* This table includes Leaners

                        Likely
                        Voters


Forrester 48% Schundler 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 DK/NA 11



4. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think has the best property tax plan - Bret Schundler or Douglas Forrester?

                        Likely
                        Voters


Schundler 29% Forrester 40 DK/NA 31



5. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think has the best chance of beating Jon Corzine in the general election for governor in November - Bret Schundler or Douglas Forrester?

                        Likely
                        Voters


Schundler 27% Forrester 56 DK/NA 17



6. Have you seen any television advertisements for this year's republican primary for governor?

                        Likely
                        Voters


Yes 63% No 36 DK/NA -



7. (If 'yes' q6) Thinking of the most recent ad that you saw, do you know which candidate paid for that ad, was it - Douglas Forrester, Bret Schundler, or somebody else?

                        Likely Voters
                        Saw ad Q6


Forrester 58% Schundler 8 Somebody else 9 DK/NA 25



8. (If 'yes' q6) Did the ad make you - more likely to vote for Schundler, more likely to vote for Forrester or didn't the ad affect your vote?

                        Likely Voters
                        Saw ad Q6


More likely Schundler 11% More likely Forrester 14 Didn't affect vote 65 DK/NA 10



TREND: If the Republican primary for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Douglas Forrester, Bret Schundler, Todd Caliguire, Paul DiGaetano, Steve Lonegan, John Murphy, and Bob Schroeder, for whom would you vote? If undecided: As of today, do you lean more to Forrester, Schundler, Caliguire, DiGaetano, Lonegan, Murphy, or Schroeder?

*This table includes Leaners

                        LIKELY VOTERS


Jun 1 May 19 Apr 28 2005 2005 2005

Forrester 40 39 36 Schundler 29 33 33 Caliguire 2 - 1 DiGaetano 2 2 2 Lonegan 4 4 - Murphy 9 3 5 Schroeder 3 3 4 SMONE ELSE (VOL) - - - WLDN'T VOTE (VOL) - - - DK/NA 12 15 18



TREND: Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

                        LIKELY VOTERS .......


Made Might Up Change DK/NA

Jun 1, 2005 58 42 - May 19, 2005 47 52 - Apr 28, 2005 38 61 -



TREND: Suppose Douglas Forrester and Bret Schundler were the only candidates running in the Republican primary for governor, for whom would you vote? If undecided: As of today, do you lean more to Forrester or Schundler?

*This table includes Leaners

                        LIKELY VOTERS .......................


SMONE WLDN'T DF BS ELSE VOTE DK/NA

Jun 1, 2005 48 40 1 1 11 May 19, 2005 48 39 1 - 12 Apr 28, 2005 45 40 - - 15



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think has the best property tax plan -- Bret Schundler or Douglas Forrester?

                        LIKELY VOTERS........


BS DF DK/NA

Jun 1, 2005 29 40 31 May 19, 2005 24 38 38



TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think has the best chance of beating Jon Corzine in the general election for governor in November -- Bret Schundler or Douglas Forrester?

                        LIKELY VOTERS........


BS DF DK/NA

Jun 1, 2005 27 56 17 May 19, 2005 31 45 24