September 28, 2005 - Forrester Narrows Corzine's Lead In New Jersey, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Republican Is Ahead On Property Tax, Corruption Issue
Republican Douglas Forrester has narrowed the gap with Democratic U. S. Sen. Jon Corzine in the race for Governor of New Jersey and now trails 48 - 44 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Eight percent are undecided.

This compares to a 50 - 40 percent Corzine lead among likely voters in an August 10 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In an open-ended question, where voters can give any answer, 41 percent of likely voters list taxes, including 26 percent who list property taxes, as the most important issue in the Governor's race. For 12 percent of voters, honesty/corruption is most important.

New Jersey likely voters say 43 - 39 percent that Forrester would do a better job reducing property taxes. But voters say 46 - 39 percent that Corzine would do a better job dealing with the state budget crisis, and 44 - 41 percent that the Democrat would do a better job on taxes in general.

Voters say 40 - 38 percent, a tie, that Forrester would do a better job ending corruption. Men say 50 - 35 percent that the Republican would do a better job.

"Doug Forrester has turned this election into a horse race because voters - men in particular - narrowly believe he can better solve the two hottest issues in the campaign - corruption and property taxes," said Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Asked specifically about government corruption, 60 percent of New Jersey voters say it's a "very serious" problem, with 30 percent who say "somewhat serious."

Looking at corruption in government, 44 percent of likely voters see Corzine as part of the solution, while 37 percent see him as part of the problem. Forrester is part of the solution, 52 percent say, while 19 percent see him as part of the problem.

"Many voters did not focus on this election until after Labor Day and when they did they saw a Republican contender with more substance than they expected. Doug Forrester may not have as many millions to spend as Sen. Corzine, but it appears he has enough to get his message across. But don't forget that New Jersey is a Democratic state, as a lot of strong Republican candidates from President Bush on down have learned the hard way," Richards added.

New Jersey likely voters give Forrester a 39 - 16 percent favorability rating, with 25 percent mixed and 20 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Corzine gets a 42 - 22 percent favorability rating, with 26 percent mixed and 10 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Looking at Corzine, voters say:
  • 67 - 20 percent that he has strong leadership qualities;
  • 56 - 31 percent that he cares about their needs and problems;
  • 55 - 25 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
  • 70 - 20 percent that he has the right experience to be Governor.
Looking at Forrester, voters say:
  • 57 - 18 percent that he has strong leadership qualities;
  • 54 - 27 percent that he cares about their needs and problems;
  • 56 - 16 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
  • 54 - 25 percent that he has the right experience to be Governor.
From September 20 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 874 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3.3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Florida and nationally as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat and Doug Forrester the Republican for whom would you vote? If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Corzine or Forrester? * This table includes 'leaners'.

                      LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS.................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Corzine 48% 10% 86% 43% 43% 52% Forrester 44 85 10 45 51 37 SMONE ELSE 1 - - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - - - - - DK/NA 8 5 4 11 5 11

Philly Urban SubUrbn ExUrbn land Shore

Corzine 61% 52% 35% 51% 36% Forrester 36 36 62 42 52 SMONE ELSE - 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - - - - DK/NA 3 11 3 7 11

TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, and Doug Forrester the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) Well as of today, do you lean more towards Corzine or Forrester?

                        LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS 
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005


Corzine 48 50 Forrester 44 40 SMONE ELSE 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - DK/NA 8 9



1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                      LIKELY VOTERS......
                              Cand choice
                      Tot     JC      DF


Made up 78% 79% 76% Might change 22 20 24 DK/NA 1 1 1



2. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Jon Corzine the Democrat, Doug Forrester the Republican, Jeff Pawlowski an independent candidate, and Hector Castillo an independent candidate, for whom would you vote? If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Corzine, Forrester, Pawlowski, or Castillo? * This table includes 'leaners'.

                      LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS.................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Corzine 48% 11% 86% 43% 43% 52% Forrester 43 84 10 43 50 37 Castillo 1 - - 3 2 - Pawlowski - - - 1 - 1 SMONE ELSE - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE - - - - - - DK/NA 8 5 3 11 6 10



3. What is the most important issue to you in deciding how to vote for governor this year?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Taxes Total 41% Taxes general 14 17 11 14 14 14 Property tax 26 33 23 26 28 25 Income Tax 1 1 1 - 1 1

Corruption Total 12% Political corruption 8 12 3 8 12 4 Honesty 4 3 2 5 5 3

Education Total 8% Education general 5 3 7 5 3 7 Funding education 3 2 4 3 2 4

Economy Total 4% Economy general 2 3 3 2 4 1 Unemployment/jobs 1 - 2 1 1 2 Cost of living 1 - 1 - 1 1

Budget Total 3% Budget general 1 2 1 1 2 1 Gov too big/Gov spending 1 1 - 1 1 1 Budget priorities 1 1 1 2 2 -

Healthcare Total 3% Healthcare/Costs/ Insurance/HMO's 2 - 3 1 1 3 Prescription costs 1 - 2 - 1 1

Lack of ethics/ Morality 3 2 3 2 2 3

Abortion 1 1 - 1 - 1 Crime/Violence 1 1 - - 1 1 Gun control 1 1 - - 1 - Housing Costs/ Availability 1 - 1 - - 1 Politicians/Campaigns general 1 1 2 2 2 1 Security/Safety 1 1 2 - - 2 Senior issues 1 - 2 - - 1

Other 7 5 7 10 5 9 DK/NA 6 4 7 5 5 6



4. Is your opinion of Doug Forrester favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 39% 59% 16% 43% 44% 33% Unfavorable 16 2 34 10 16 16 Mixed 25 27 21 27 22 28 Hvn't hrd enough 20 12 26 20 18 22 REFUSED 1 - 2 1 1 1

TREND: Is your opinion of Doug Forrester favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005


Favorable 39 33 Unfavorable 16 18 Mixed 25 24 Hvn't heard enough 20 23 REFUSED 1 2



5. Is your opinion of Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 42% 12% 77% 32% 39% 45% Unfavorable 22 44 3 22 28 16 Mixed 26 35 13 33 26 26 Hvn't hrd enough 10 9 8 12 7 12 REFUSED 1 - - 1 - 1

TREND: Is your opinion of Jon Corzine favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005


Favorable 42 40 Unfavorable 22 26 Mixed 26 23 Hvn't heard enough 10 9 REFUSED 1 2



6. Regardless of how you intend to vote, who do you think will win the election for governor -- Jon Corzine or Doug Forrester?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Corzine 67% 63% 78% 62% 70% 65% Forrester 17 24 8 22 20 15 DK/NA 15 13 13 16 10 20



7. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Very satisfied 3% 2% 4% 5% 3% 4% Smwht satisfied 34 23 53 28 30 39 Smwht dissatisfied 33 38 30 32 31 35 Very dissatisfied 28 37 13 35 35 21 DK/NA - - - - - 1

TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New Jersey today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005


Very satisfied 3 4 Smwht satisfied 34 39 Smwht dissatisfied 33 29 Very dissatisfied 28 27 DK/NA - 1



8. Would you say that Jon Corzine has strong leadership qualities or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 67% 51% 85% 64% 63% 72% No 20 37 5 21 28 13 DK/NA 13 12 10 15 10 16

TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine has strong leadership qualities or not?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005


Yes 67 67 No 20 20 DK/NA 13 13



9. Would you say that Jon Corzine cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 56% 29% 83% 52% 52% 59% No 31 56 8 35 39 25 DK/NA 13 15 9 14 10 16

TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005
                        
Yes                     56      49
No                      31      35
DK/NA                   13      17




10. Would you say that Jon Corzine is honest and trustworthy or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 55% 29% 80% 50% 53% 56% No 25 46 6 27 31 19 DK/NA 20 25 14 22 15 25

TREND: Would you say that Jon Corzine is honest and trustworthy or not?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005


Yes 55 49 No 25 27 DK/NA 20 24



11. Do you think Jon Corzine has the right kind of experience to be Governor of New Jersey or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 70% 51% 90% 67% 69% 71% No 20 39 4 19 25 15 DK/NA 10 10 6 13 7 13

TREND: Do you think Jon Corzine has the right kind of experience to be Governor of New Jersey or not?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005


Yes 70 66 No 20 23 DK/NA 10 11



12. Would you say that Doug Forrester has strong leadership qualities or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 57% 77% 37% 59% 60% 54% No 18 8 30 18 19 18 DK/NA 25 15 33 23 21 28

TREND: Would you say that Doug Forrester has strong leadership qualities or not?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005


Yes 57 51 No 18 20 DK/NA 25 29



13. Would you say that Doug Forrester cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 54% 77% 31% 57% 57% 51% No 27 10 45 26 27 27 DK/NA 19 14 25 17 16 22

TREND: Would you say that Doug Forrester cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005


Yes 54 47 No 27 32 DK/NA 19 21



14. Would you say that Doug Forrester is honest and trustworthy or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 56% 77% 37% 57% 63% 50% No 16 5 27 15 17 16 DK/NA 28 18 36 27 20 35

TREND: Would you say that Doug Forrester is honest and trustworthy or not?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005


Yes 56 52 No 16 19 DK/NA 28 29



15. Do you think Doug Forrester has the right kind of experience to be Governor of New Jersey or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 54% 76% 36% 54% 59% 50% No 25 11 38 26 26 24 DK/NA 21 13 26 20 15 26

TREND: Do you think Doug Forrester has the right kind of experience to be Governor of New Jersey or not?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005


Yes 54 52 No 25 27 DK/NA 21 22



16. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor - Doug Forrester or Jon Corzine - do you think would do a better job reducing property taxes?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Forrester 43% 75% 13% 45% 52% 34% Corzine 39 11 68 37 36 43 DK/NA 18 14 19 18 12 24

TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor - Doug Forrester or Jon Corzine - do you think would do a better job reducing property taxes?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005


Forrester 43 41 Corzine 39 34 DK/NA 18 25



17. How much of a problem, if at all, is government corruption in New Jersey today - Is it a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, a not too serious problem, or not a problem at all?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Very serious 60% 71% 46% 63% 65% 55% Smwht serious 30 23 40 28 29 31 Not too serious 8 5 10 8 6 9 Not a problem - 1 1 - - 1 DK/NA 2 1 3 1 - 4

TREND: How much of a problem, if at all, is government corruption in New Jersey today? Is it a very serious problem, a somewhat serious problem, a not too serious problem, or not a problem at all?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005


Very serious 60 64 Smwht serious 30 28 Not too serious 8 5 Not a problem - 1 DK/NA 2 3



18. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor - Jon Corzine or Doug Forrester - do you think would do a better job ending corruption in government?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Corzine 38% 8% 69% 34% 35% 41% Forrester 40 73 9 46 50 31 DK/NA 22 19 23 21 15 28

TREND: Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor - Jon Corzine or Doug Forrester - do you think would do a better job ending corruption in government?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Sep 28  Aug 10
                        2005    2005


Corzine 38 35 Forrester 40 38 DK/NA 22 27



19. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor - Jon Corzine or Doug Forrester - do you think would do a better job dealing with the budget crisis in New Jersey?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Corzine 46% 16% 77% 44% 44% 49% Forrester 39 72 11 40 46 32 DK/NA 15 12 12 17 11 19



20. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor - Jon Corzine or Doug Forrester - do you think would do a better job handling taxes in general?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Corzine 44% 10% 80% 40% 40% 48% Forrester 41 77 10 44 50 33 DK/NA 15 14 10 16 10 19



21. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor - Jon Corzine or Doug Forrester - do you think would do a better job improving transportation?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Corzine 42% 22% 66% 40% 43% 42% Forrester 24 43 5 27 29 20 DK/NA 34 35 29 33 29 38



22. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor - Jon Corzine or Doug Forrester - do you think would do a better job handling auto insurance?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Corzine 34% 10% 63% 30% 32% 36% Forrester 33 59 10 34 41 25 DK/NA 33 31 28 37 27 39



23. Regardless of how you intend to vote, which candidate for Governor - Jon Corzine or Doug Forrester - do you think would do a better job fighting overdevelopment and sprawl?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Corzine 39% 15% 64% 37% 39% 39% Forrester 33 58 13 34 38 30 DK/NA 28 27 23 30 23 32



24. When thinking about the problem of ethics in government, do you think Jon Corzine is part of the problem or part of the solution?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Part of problem 37% 67% 11% 39% 45% 31% Part of solution 44 15 72 41 41 47 REFUSED 19 18 17 20 14 23



25. When thinking about the problem of ethics in government, do you think Doug Forrester is part of the problem or part of the solution?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Part of problem 19% 9% 28% 20% 19% 19% Part of solution 52 71 35 54 58 47 REFUSED 29 20 37 26 23 34



26. Did you happen to see the televised debate Tuesday night between Jon Corzine and Doug Forrester? (Question asked 9/23/2005 - 9/25/2005)

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 14% 13% 10% 17% 18% 10% No 86 87 90 81 80 90 DK/NA 1 - - 2 1 -



27. How much have you seen, heard or read about the debate between Jon Corzine and Doug Forrester on Tuesday night -- A lot, some, only a little, or nothing at all? (Question asked 9/23/2005 - 9/25/2005)

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


A lot 8% 3% 10% 10% 10% 7% Some 23 36 11 26 28 18 Only a little 29 27 39 21 27 32 Nothing at all 40 34 39 43 35 44 DK/NA - - - - - -



28. (If seen, heard or read) Based on what you've seen, heard or read, who do you think won the debate - Jon Corzine or Doug Forrester? (Question asked 9/23/2005 - 9/25/2005)

                      LIKELY VOTERS


Jon Corzine 31% Doug Forrester 26 DK/NA 43



29. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Approve 37% 78% 4% 34% 44% 30% Disapprove 59 17 94 62 54 64 DK/NA 4 5 2 4 2 6



30. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Right thing 38% 77% 7% 37% 45% 32% Wrong thing 57 18 90 60 51 62 DK/NA 5 5 3 4 5 5