March 13, 2008 - Kelly Tops List For New York City Mayor, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Back Congestion Pricing, If Funds Go To Transit

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New York City Police Commissioner Ray Kelly tops the list when voters are asked whom they would like to see elected Mayor next year, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Kelly also has the highest approval rating among most of the mayoral possibilities.

The independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll lists choices, with no party affiliation, and asks New York City voters to select the one they most want to see elected Mayor in 2009. Results are:
  • Kelly - 22 percent, including 16 percent of Democrats;
  • U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner - 14 percent, with 15 percent of Democrats;
  • Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz - 14 percent; 15 percent of Democrats;
  • Council Speaker Christine Quinn - 13 percent; 16 percent of Democrats;
  • Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum - 8 percent; 9 percent of Democrats;
  • Comptroller William Thompson - 8 percent; 10 percent of Democrats.
Kelly gets a 62 - 28 percent approval rating, with white voters approving 75 - 16 percent, black voters split 44 - 44 percent and Hispanic voters approving 58 - 34 percent. Approval ratings for other citywide officials are:
  • Quinn: 48 - 15 percent;
  • Thompson: 44 - 11 percent;
  • Gotbaum: 45 - 18 percent.
"Number one in the early line for mayor next year - Police Commissioner Ray Kelly. Kelly has political pluses and minuses. Probably it's due to all the news about the Bell trial, but his job approval rating, healthy overall, is only a standoff in the Black community. Among Republicans, which is the party line most politicians think he'd run on, he's the big favorite, " said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Three Democrats are bunched in the teens: Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn and Congressman Anthony Weiner," Carroll added.

Congestion Pricing

By a 56 - 38 percent margin, New York City voters oppose the revised congestion pricing plan to charge a fee for vehicles driving below 60th Street in Manhattan.

But by a 59 - 38 percent margin, voters say they would support congestion pricing if the money is used to improve mass transit in and around New York City.

Support for congestion pricing, if the money is used for mass transit is:
  • Manhattan: 73 - 23 percent;
  • Bronx: 57 - 39 percent;
  • Brooklyn: 51 - 46 percent;
  • Queens: 58 - 40 percent;
  • Staten Island: 55 - 42 percent.
Only 43 percent of voters say it is "very likely" or "somewhat likely" that congestion pricing funds will be used to improve mass transit, while 54 percent say this is "not too likely" or "not likely at all."

By a 58 - 36 percent margin, New York City voters agree that congestion pricing would unfairly tax people who live outside Manhattan. Only Manhattan voters disagree, 52 - 43 percent, with that claim.

A total of 89 percent of New York City voters say traffic congestion is a "very serious" or "somewhat serious" problem in the city.

"As decision time approaches in City Hall and Albany, the numbers don't change. Congestion pricing: No. Congestion pricing if the money helps mass transit: Yes," Carroll said.

"But New Yorkers are skeptical of promises by politicians who support congestion pricing. Most voters doubt that the money really would find its way to mass transit improvements.

"Again, it's Manhattan against the world. In the other boroughs, they think congestion pricing would unfairly tax people outside of Manhattan. People in Manhattan disagree."

From March 4 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,427 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

2. Now I'm going to name six people who might run for Mayor next year. After I read all six names, please tell me which one you would most like to see elected Mayor in 2009. Here are the choices: Brooklyn Borough President Marty Markowitz, Police Commissioner Ray Kelly, Congressman Anthony Weiner, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn, City Comptroller William Thompson, and Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
 
Markowitz               14%     10%     15%     15%     12%     23%     11%
Kelly                   22      48      16      23      27      12      25
Weiner                  14      11      15      13      17       7      15
Quinn                   13       8      16       9      13      10      14
Thompson                 8       2      10       8       4      20       7
Gotbaum                  8       3       9       8       7      12       5
DK/NA                   21      19      20      23      21      16      22
 
                        Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
 
Markowitz                3%     31%      6%      9%     15%     12%     16%
Kelly                   26      17      19      25      34      27      18
Weiner                  11      12      11      19      17      18      11
Quinn                   18      10      19       9       7      10      15
Thompson                11       9       8       8       3       8       9
Gotbaum                 10       4      13       7       2       5      10
DK/NA                   21      16      25      24      23      21      21
 
 
3. If Michael Bloomberg endorses a candidate for Mayor, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
 
More likely             26%     29%     26%     28%     30%     16%     26%
Less likely              8       7       7       9       7      10       9
Doesn't make diff       63      62      65      60      62      71      59
DK/NA                    2       2       2       3       1       2       6
 
                        Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
 
More likely             22%     22%     37%     25%     20%     27%     25%
Less likely              8       9       7       9      12       9       8
Doesn't make diff       67      67      55      63      66      63      64
DK/NA                    3       2       1       3       3       2       3
 
 
4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
 
Approve                 62%     84%     58%     65%     75%     44%     58%
Disapprove              28      12      30      26      16      44      34
DK/NA                   10       4      12       9       9      11       8
 
                        Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
 
Approve                 58%     57%     62%     69%     70%     68%     57%
Disapprove              33      29      30      22      24      23      31
DK/NA                    9      15       8       9       6       9      12
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner? * 70% on 2/3/06
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Mar 13  Jan 9   Nov 19  Aug 29  Jul 25  Mar 9   Jan 16
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2006 *  2007
 
Approve                 62      60      55      62      64      70      52
Disapprove              28      23      30      25      26      17      34
DK/NA                   10      16      16      13      11      13      14
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joel Klein is handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
 
Approve                 40%     40%     42%     39%     39%     45%     42%
Disapprove              39      35      38      42      36      39      44
DK/NA                   21      25      20      20      25      17      14
 
                        Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
 
Approve                 43%     38%     42%     41%     36%     42%     39%
Disapprove              40      42      30      40      45      37      40
DK/NA                   17      20      28      20      19      21      21
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joel Klein is handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor?
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Mar 13  Jan 9   Nov 21  Aug 29  Jul 26  Feb 26  Mar 15
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2003    2007
 
Approve                 40      40      44      39      41      46      33
Disapprove              39      37      36      37      39      27      43
DK/NA                   21      24      20      23      20      28      24
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Betsy Gotbaum is handling her job as Public Advocate?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
 
Approve                 45%     25%     52%     42%     40%     57%     45%
Disapprove              18      32      14      21      19      14      21
DK/NA                   37      43      35      37      41      28      34
 
                        Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
 
Approve                 48%     46%     46%     44%     43%     43%     47%
Disapprove              18      20      14      20      17      22      15
DK/NA                   35      34      41      37      39      36      38
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Betsy Gotbaum is handling her job as Public Advocate?
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Mar 13  Jan 9   Nov 19  Aug 29  Jul 25  Mar 13   Feb 26
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2008     2003
 
Approve                 45      44      40      39      40      45       34
Disapprove              18      18      19      18      17      18       17
DK/NA                   37      38      40      43      43      37       49
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
 
Approve                 48%     36%     53%     44%     47%     53%     48%
Disapprove              15      27      11      19      15      18      11
DK/NA                   37      37      36      36      38      29      41
 
                        Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
 
Approve                 61%     44%     47%     47%     41%     44%     51%
Disapprove              12      18      12      15      23      21      11
DK/NA                   27      38      41      38      37      35      38
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker?
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Mar 13  Jan 9   Nov 19  Aug 29  Jul 25  Mar 14  Aug 29
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Approve                 48      48      46      44      45      51      44
Disapprove              15      14      16      16      15      12      16
DK/NA                   37      38      37      40      40      37      40
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
 
Approve                 44%     35%     46%     47%     38%     58%     43%
Disapprove              11      13      11       9       8      14      12
DK/NA                   46      52      43      44      55      28      45
 
                        Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
 
Approve                 46%     49%     35%     47%     36%     46%     42%
Disapprove              15       9       7      10      22      11      10
DK/NA                   40      43      57      43      42      43      48
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller?
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Mar 13  Jan 9   Nov 19  Aug 29  Jul 25  Jan 9  Feb 26
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2008   2003
 
Approve                 44      48      45      41      43      48     35
Disapprove              11      14      15      12      12      14     13
DK/NA                   46      38      41      47      45      38     52
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the city council is handling its job?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
 
Approve                 50%     33%     55%     47%     48%     55%     52%
Disapprove              29      44      23      35      25      32      29
DK/NA                   21      23      21      18      27      14      19
 
                        Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
 
Approve                 52%     49%     49%     48%     54%     46%     52%
Disapprove              32      32      25      28      29      37      23
DK/NA                   16      20      26      24      17      17      25
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the city council is handling its job?
                                                                Highest Highest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Mar 13  Jan 9   Nov 19  Aug 29  Jul 25  Mar 13  Aug 29
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2008    2007
 
Approve                 50      46      45      44      48      50      44
Disapprove              29      31      32      32      32      29      32
DK/NA                   21      23      23      25      20      21      25
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the New York City police are doing their job?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
 
Approve                 60%     83%     54%     65%     78%     33%     57%
Disapprove              33      15      37      28      16      58      37
DK/NA                    7       3       8       7       6       9       6
 
                        Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
 
Approve                 53%     57%     61%     65%     65%     64%     57%
Disapprove              41      35      30      28      29      31      35
DK/NA                    6       7       9       7       6       6       9
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the New York City police are doing their job?
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Mar 13  Mar 15  Jan 16  Apr 13  Jun 23  Feb 7   Apr 20
                        2008    2007    2007    2006    2005    2002    2000
 
Approve                 60      60      53      72      69      76      43
Disapprove              33      33      40      20      23      18      48
DK/NA                    7       6       8       8       7       6       9
 
 
20. There is a proposal to use congestion pricing to reduce traffic in New York City by charging a fee for vehicles that drive south of 60th Street in Manhattan. Do you support or oppose this congestion pricing plan?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
 
Support                 38%     32%     38%     42%     42%     25%     36%
Oppose                  56      63      56      53      52      68      61
DK/NA                    6       5       6       5       6       7       4
 
                        Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
 
Support                 27%     37%     53%     32%     33%     43%     33%
Oppose                  62      58      42      62      63      52      59
DK/NA                   11       5       6       6       4       5       7
 
 
21. Would you support congestion pricing if the money were used to improve mass transit in and around New York City?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
 
Yes                     59%     42%     62%     61%     58%     53%     65%
No                      38      52      35      35      39      43      31
DK/NA                    3       6       2       4       3       4       4
 
                        Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
 
Yes                     57%     51%     73%     58%     55%     58%     60%
No                      39      46      23      40      42      40      36
DK/NA                    4       3       5       3       2       2       4
 
TREND: Would you support congestion pricing if the money were used to improve mass transit in and around New York City?
                        Mar 13  Jan 10
                        2008    2008
 
Yes                     59      60
No                      38      37
DK/NA                    3       3
 
 
22. How likely do you think it is that the money from congestion pricing would be used to improve mass transit in and around New York City? Very likely, somewhat likely, not too likely or not likely at all?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
 
Very likely             11%     10%     12%      8%     11%      8%     11%
Smwht likely            32      28      33      35      32      30      34
Not too likely          25      20      27      21      25      25      23
Not likely at all       29      40      24      34      29      32      28
DK/NA                    4       2       4       2       4       4       3
 
                        Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
 
Very likely              6%     10%     15%     10%      9%     12%      9%
Smwht likely            35      31      36      28      35      32      33
Not too likely          26      23      23      27      20      21      27
Not likely at all       28      32      23      29      36      32      26
DK/NA                    5       3       3       5       -       3       4
 
 
23. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement - Congestion pricing would unfairly tax people who live outside of Manhattan?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
 
Agree                   58%     66%     59%     51%     55%     65%     61%
Disagree                36      30      35      45      40      29      33
DK/NA                    6       4       6       4       5       6       6
 
                        Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
 
Agree                   59%     62%     43%     65%     69%     56%     60%
Disagree                31      33      52      31      25      39      34
DK/NA                   10       5       5       4       6       4       7
 
TREND: Do you you agree or disagree with the following statement - Congestion pricing would unfairly tax people who live outside of Manhattan.
                        Mar 13  Jan 10  Nov 19  May 24  Jan 18
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007
 
Agree                   58      54      54      59      57
Disagree                36      42      42      36      37
DK/NA                    6       4       4       5       7
 
 
24. How much of a problem do you think traffic congestion is in New York City? A very serious problem, somewhat serious, not very serious, or not a problem at all?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
 
Very serious            52%     48%     52%     56%     52%     50%     50%
Smwht serious           37      41      36      37      40      33      38
Not very serious         8       9       9       6       6      11      10
Not a prob at all        1       2       1       1       1       2       1
DK/NA                    1       -       2       -       1       4       -
 
                        Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
 
Very serious            54%     48%     52%     53%     56%     50%     53%
Smwht serious           31      40      36      39      40      40      36
Not very serious        10      10       9       6       4       8       9
Not a prob at all        2       1       1       2       -       2       1
DK/NA                    3       1       1       -       -       -       2
 
TREND: How much of a problem do you think traffic congestion is in New York City? A very serious problem, somewhat serious, not very serious, or not a problem at all?
                        Mar 13  Jan 10  Nov 19  Aug 30  May 24  Jan 18
                        2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Very serious            52      52      52      55      59      55
Smwht serious           37      39      35      34      31      34
Not very serious         8       6       9       8       7       6
Not at all               1       2       2       1       2       2
DK/NA                    1       1       2       2       2       2