July 28, 2009 - Thompson Cuts Bloomberg's Lead In Half In Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Green And 'Don't Know' Lead In Other Races

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New York City Comptroller William Thompson, the top Democratic challenger, trails Mayor Michael Bloomberg 47 - 37 percent among New York City voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. This 10-point gap is less than half of Mayor Bloomberg's 54 - 32 percent lead June 16.

Thompson's biggest gains are among black voters, who back him 56 - 30 percent, compared to 43 - 42 percent for Bloomberg June 16. Democrats shift from 49 - 40 for Bloomberg to a 45 - 42 percent for Thompson today. Bloomberg's 70 - 14 percent Republican backing is virtually unchanged while independents shift from 59 - 26 percent for Bloomberg to 49 - 27 percent today, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

In the June 16 survey, New York City voters were asked to choose between "Thompson the Democrat" and "Bloomberg the independent." In today's survey, Bloomberg is identified as "running as both a Republican and an independent."

By a 51 - 28 percent margin, Bloomberg tops Queens City Council member Tony Avella, compared to 57 - 27 percent June 16, before the label change. Thompson tops Avella in a Democratic primary 44 - 11 percent, with 39 percent undecided.

"It was starting to look as if they might hold an election and no one would come. But now there's a little life in the mayoral race as Comptroller Bill Thompson gains some ground on Mayor Michael Bloomberg," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It could be Thompson's increased attacks on the Mayor; it could be that more voters, 61 percent, say Bloomberg's campaign spending is overkill, but Thompson is closer than Democrat Fernando Ferrer was at this point in 2005, when he lost by 19 points."

"Mayor Mike's approval is down a bit, but still better than most elected officials in states Quinnipiac University surveys," Carroll said. "And 59 percent of New York City voters are satisfied with the way things are going, not bad in a recession and a budget crisis."

New York City voters approve 63 - 29 percent of the job Bloomberg is doing, compared to 66 - 27 percent June 16. This is his lowest approval since his second term began in 2005.

New York City voters give the Mayor a 59 - 34 percent favorability. Thompson gets a 38 - 9 percent favorability, but 52 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion. For Avella, 78 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

Voters approve 53 - 10 percent, with 37 percent undecided, of the way Thompson is handling his job as Comptroller.

Comptroller, Public Advocate Races

With 55 percent, "undecided" is the winner in the Democratic primary for New York City Comptroller. Among the City Council members vying for the job, John Liu has 17 percent, with 10 percent for Melinda Katz, 8 percent for David Yassky and 5 percent for David Weprin.

Former Public Advocate Mark Green leads the Democratic primary pack for his old position with 37 percent, followed by 13 percent for Norman Siegal, 10 percent for City Council member Bill de Blasio and 7 percent for Council member Eric Gioia.

Green is the only candidate in the Comptroller or Public Advocate field with any name recognition, getting a 48 - 19 percent favorability.

For each of the other candidates, 63 to 85 percent of New York City voters say they don't know enough about them to form an opinion.

"Except for the only familiar name, Mark Green, the big winner is 'don't know' for Comptroller and Public Advocate," Carroll said. "Can Green get 40 percent and avoid a runoff in the Public Advocate race? In the Comptroller's race, it's anybody and everybody's guess."

From July 21 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,290 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 793 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today and the candidates were Tony Avella and William Thompson, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
 
Avella               11%
Thompson             44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4
DK/NA                39
 
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today and the candidates were Tony Avella and William Thompson, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
                     Jul 28  Jun 16
                     2009    2009
 
Avella               11       8
Thompson             44      36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       5
DK/NA                39      46
 
 
2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Public Advocate were being held today and the candidates were Mark Green, Norman Siegal, Bill de Blasio, and Eric Gioia, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
 
Green                37%
Siegal               13
de Blasio            10
Gioia                 7
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2
DK/NA                30
 
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Public Advocate were being held today and the candidates were Mark Green, Norman Siegal, Bill de Blasio and Eric Gioia, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
                     Jul 28  Jun 17
                     2009    2009
 
Green                37      35
Siegal               13      14
de Blasio            10      10
Gioia                 7       5
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2
DK/NA                30      34
 
 
3. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Mark Green favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
 
Favorable            48%
Unfavorable          19
Hvn't hrd enough     31
REFUSED               2
 
 
4. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Norman Siegal favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
 
Favorable            27%
Unfavorable           9
Hvn't hrd enough     63
REFUSED               1
 
 
5. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
 
Favorable            17%
Unfavorable           6
Hvn't hrd enough     76
REFUSED               1
 
 
6. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Eric Gioia favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
 
Favorable            12%
Unfavorable           3
Hvn't hrd enough     84
REFUSED               1
 
 
7. (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Comptroller were being held today and the candidates were Melinda Katz, David Weprin, John Liu, and David Yassky, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
 
Katz                 10%
Weprin                5
Liu                  17
Yassky                8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4
DK/NA                55
 
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2009 Democratic primary for Comptroller were being held today and the candidates were Melinda Katz, David Weprin, John Liu and David Yassky, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
                     Jul 28  Jun 17
                     2009    2009
 
Katz                 10      13
Weprin                5       5
Liu                  17      19
Yassky                8      10
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       3
DK/NA                55      50
 
 
8. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - Melinda Katz favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
 
Favorable            14%
Unfavorable           4
Hvn't hrd enough     81
REFUSED               1
 
 
9. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - David Weprin favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
 
Favorable            10%
Unfavorable           4
Hvn't hrd enough     85
REFUSED               1
 
 
10. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - John Liu favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
 
Favorable            25%
Unfavorable           4
Hvn't hrd enough     70
REFUSED               1
 
 
11. (If registered Democrat) Is your opinion of - David Yassky favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     REGISTERED DEMS
 
Favorable            12%
Unfavorable           5
Hvn't hrd enough     82
REFUSED               1
 
 
12. If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                     
Thompson             37%     14%     45%     27%     26%     56%     34%
Bloomberg            47      70      42      49      58      30      44
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       3       -       1       1       -       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       3       1       3       2       3       2
DK/NA                14      10      11      18      12      12      18
                                                                     
                     Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
                                                                     
Thompson             44%     42%     32%     32%     28%     35%     38%
Bloomberg            39      42      55      47      54      48      46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       1       2       3       2       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       2       1       3       5       2       2
DK/NA                16      14      11      15      10      14      14
                                                                     
TREND: If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, for whom would you vote?(*Michael Bloomberg the Independent)
                     Jul 28  Jun 16  Mar 24  Feb 24  Jan 27  Nov 25
                     2009    2009*   2009*   2009*   2009*   2008*
 
Thompson             37      32      35      33      34      34
Bloomberg            47      54      49      50      50      49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       1       1       2       1       2
DK/NA                14      12      14      13      13      14
 
 
13. If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Tony Avella the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                     
Avella               28%     17%     34%     19%     20%     38%     32%
Bloomberg            51      63      49      56      61      38      49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2       1       3       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       2       4       2       6       4
DK/NA                17      15      15      18      15      17      14
                                                                     
                     Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
                                                                     
Avella               34%     29%     21%     30%     21%     27%     29%
Bloomberg            43      49      57      50      61      54      49
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       2       2       5       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       4       3       3       4       2       4
DK/NA                20      17      17      15      10      15      18
                                                             
TREND: If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Tony Avella the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, for whom would you vote?(*Michael Bloomberg the Independent)
                     Jul 28  Jun 16
                     2009    2009*
 
Avella               28      27
Bloomberg            51      57
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       2
DK/NA                17      12
 
 
14. Is your opinion of - Tony Avella favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                     
Favorable            16%     11%     20%     10%     13%     17%     19%
Unfavorable           6       8       5       7       6       5       6
Hvn't hrd enough     78      80      75      83      80      77      75
REFUSED               1       1       -       -       1       1       -
                                                                     
                     Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
                                                                     
Favorable            28%     11%     12%     19%      8%     16%     16%
Unfavorable           4       5       6       7       2       8       4
Hvn't hrd enough     68      83      81      73      89      76      80
REFUSED               -       1       1       1       1       -       1
                                                                     
TREND: Is your opinion of - Tony Avella favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 28  Jun 16
                     2009    2009
 
Favorable            16       9
Unfavorable           6       4
Hvn't hrd enough     78      87
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
15. Is your opinion of - William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                     
Favorable            38%     14%     49%     27%     34%     56%     32%
Unfavorable           9      19       6      11      11       4      10
Hvn't hrd enough     52      62      44      62      54      39      56
REFUSED               1       5       1       1       1       1       1
                                                                     
                     Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
                                                                     
Favorable            41%     40%     42%     33%     31%     38%     38%
Unfavorable           6       8      11      11       7      11       7
Hvn't hrd enough     51      52      46      54      60      49      53
REFUSED               2       1       1       2       1       1       2
                                                                     
TREND: Is your opinion of - William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 28  Jun 16  Mar 24  Feb 24  Jan 27  Nov 25
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2008
 
Favorable            38      29      25      22      25      25
Unfavorable           9       6       5       5       5       4
Hvn't hrd enough     52      63      68      71      69      70
REFUSED               1       2       2       1       2       1
 
 
16. Is your opinion of - Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                     
Favorable            59%     67%     58%     62%     66%     47%     57%
Unfavorable          34      27      35      31      29      46      31
Hvn't hrd enough      3       1       3       3       1       4       6
REFUSED               4       5       4       4       4       3       6
                                                                     
                     Brnx    Kngs    Man     Qns     StIsl   Men     Wom
                                                                     
Favorable            48%     56%     68%     61%     62%     59%     59%
Unfavorable          44      37      26      31      31      35      33
Hvn't hrd enough      6       4       1       2       1       2       3
REFUSED               3       4       5       6       6       4       5
                                                                     
TREND: Is your opinion of - Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jul 28  Jun 16  Mar 24  Feb 24  Jan 27  Nov 25
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2008
 
Favorable            59      64      62      62      66      61
Unfavorable          34      30      31      32      28      31
Hvn't hrd enough      3       3       3       2       3       4
REFUSED               4       3       4       4       3       3
 
 
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Approve              63%    67%    64%    65%    69%    54%    62%
Disapprove           29     27     29     29     26     36     29
DK/NA                 8      6      8      6      5     10      9
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Approve              55%    54%    73%    68%    70%    65%    62%
Disapprove           37     35     21     26     23     29     30
DK/NA                 8     11      5      6      8      7      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor? (*High also 75% on 10/03/08, 3/12/08, 1/16/07 & 11/17/05)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS..
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Jul 28  Jun 16  Mar 24  Feb 24  Oct 21  Jul 2   Jul 2
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2008*   2003    2003
 
Approve              63      66      64      65      75      31      31
Disapprove           29      27      28      29      20      60      60
DK/NA                 8       7       8       6       6       8       8
 
 
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Approve              67%    83%    62%    73%    80%    50%    64%
Disapprove           20      9     23     19     10     34     20
DK/NA                13      8     15      8     10     16     16
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Approve              64%    65%    66%    71%    77%    67%    67%
Disapprove           23     22     22     15     14     23     17
DK/NA                13     14     11     14      9     10     15
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner? (*High also 70% on 2/3/06)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS..
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Jul 28  Jun 17  Feb 24  Jan 27  Mar 9   Jan 16  Jan 16
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2006*   2007    2007
 
Approve              67      63      64      67      70      52      52
Disapprove           20      22      20      19      17      34      34
DK/NA                13      14      16      14      13      14      14
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Approve              53%    35%    60%    48%    51%    65%    48%
Disapprove           10     17      9      9      9      9     12
DK/NA                37     47     31     43     40     26     40
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Approve              56%    49%    53%    54%    57%    53%    52%
Disapprove           11     12      8     11      7     13      9
DK/NA                33     39     39     35     36     34     39
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller? (* High also 53% Oct 3 2008)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS..
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Jul 28  Jun 16  Mar 24  Feb 24  Jul 28  Feb 26  Jul 2
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2003    2003
 
Approve              53      50      41      46      53      35      38
Disapprove           10      10      12      11      10      13      20
DK/NA                37      40      47      44      37      52      42
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Approve              74%    30%    91%    61%    63%    92%    80%
Disapprove           20     61      6     28     32      3     14
DK/NA                 6     10      3     11      5      5      6
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Approve              84%    70%    80%    71%    59%    67%    79%
Disapprove           12     22     14     23     38     27     14
DK/NA                 4      9      6      6      3      6      6
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                     Jul 28  Jun 16  Feb 25
                     2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              74      79      78
Disapprove           20      16      13
DK/NA                 6       6       9
 
 
21. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Very satisfied        8%     8%     7%     7%     9%     4%    10%
Smwht satisfied      51     50     53     51     54     50     46
Smwht dissatisfied   26     24     27     25     24     29     25
Very dissatisfied    14     15     11     17     12     16     18
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      1      1      2
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Very satisfied        4%     6%    13%     8%     2%     7%     8%
Smwht satisfied      54     47     53     53     49     52     50
Smwht dissatisfied   27     30     22     25     30     25     27
Very dissatisfied    15     16     10     14     18     15     13
DK/NA                 -      2      2      -      1      1      1
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                             VERY+SMWHT...
                                                             High    Low
                     Jul 28  Jun 16  Mar 24  Feb 24  Jan 28  Feb 11  Jul 2
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    1998    2003
 
Very satisfied        8       8       8       5       8      18       7
Smwht satisfied      51      51      45      44      47      58      23
Smwht dissatisfied   26      27      31      33      30      18      32
Very dissatisfied    14      13      14      17      15       5      38
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
22. Some people say that Mayor Bloomberg's campaign spending is a case of overkill. Do you agree or disagree?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Agree                61%    57%    62%    61%    65%    58%    54%
Disagree             30     35     29     29     28     32     37
DK/NA                 9      8      8     10      7     10      9
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Agree                60%    60%    63%    62%    63%    63%    60%
Disagree             28     29     30     31     32     28     31
DK/NA                11     11      7      7      5      9      9
 
TREND: Some people say that Mayor Bloomberg's campaign spending is a case of overkill. Do you agree or disagree?
                     Jul 28  Jun 16
                     2009    2009
 
Agree                61      56
Disagree             30      36
DK/NA                 9       9