September 24, 2009 - Bloomberg Has 16-Point Lead In Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Most Voters Back Mayor's Bid To Ban Butts In Parks

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New York City Comptroller William Thompson, denied a bounce after his Democratic primary victory, trails Mayor Michael Bloomberg 52 - 36 percent among New York City likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Conservative Party candidate Stephen Christopher has 2 percent, with 9 percent undecided.

Mayor Bloomberg leads 75 - 12 percent among Republicans and 61 - 25 percent among independent voters, while Democrats split 46 - 46 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

White voters back Bloomberg 62 - 26 percent, while black voters back Thompson 53 - 35 percent. Hispanic voters back the Mayor 53 - 37 percent.

Since this is the first survey of likely voters and the first survey to include Christopher, comparisons to earlier surveys are not valid.

"Comptroller William Thompson, fresh from a big Democratic primary win, got no post- primary bounce in his campaign to unseat Mayor Michael Bloomberg. He has a 16-point mountain to climb and less than six weeks to do it," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"And while Thompson is climbing that mountain, Bloomberg is rolling huge rocks, in the form of a multi-million-dollar media blitz, down on his head.

"Thompson manages only a tie among Democrats and only an 18-point lead among his fellow black New Yorkers. And for a citywide official of real importance, his job approval 'don't know' number is high."

New York City likely voters approve 69 -26 percent of the job Bloomberg is doing.

Thompson gets a 53 - 12 percent approval rating, with 35 percent undecided.

By a 64 - 29 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Bloomberg.

Thompson has a 42 - 12 percent favorability, but 44 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

For Christopher, 90 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

"Stephen Christopher? You didn't know that he's the Conservative Party candidate for Mayor? Neither does anyone else," Carroll said.

Outdoor Smoking Ban

By a 52 - 43 percent margin, New York City likely voters support a proposal to ban smoking in city parks and beaches. This smoking ban wins 56 - 39 percent approval from Democrats. Independent voters split with 48 percent in favor and 47 percent opposed. Republicans oppose it 52 - 44 percent.

Women support the outdoor ban 57 - 38 percent, while men oppose it 49 - 44 percent. Support ranges from 55 - 38 percent in favor in The Bronx to 52 - 43 percent opposed in Staten Island, New York City's greenest borough.

"We ban smoking in saloons. We ban smoking in baseball stadiums. We ban smoking in all sorts of places, but in the open air in parks? New Yorkers are still puffing on that idea. Let's see what happens after the election," Carroll said.

From September 16 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,513 New York City likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

7. If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, William Thompson the Democrat and Stephen Christopher the Conservative party candidate for whom would you vote? (If undecided q7) As of today, do you lean more toward Thompson, Bloomberg or Christopher?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Thompson             36%    12%    46%    25%    26%    53%    37%
Bloomberg            52     75     46     61     62     35     53
Christopher           2      9      -      2      3      1      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      -      -      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9      2      8     11      7     11      8
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Thompson             35%    41%    34%    33%    29%    33%    37%
Bloomberg            47     47     55     57     55     55     50
Christopher           1      3      1      2      7      3      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                16      9     10      6      8      8     11
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Favorable            42%    20%    52%    32%    33%    57%    44%
Unfavorable          12     29      8     14     16      3     11
Hvn't hrd enough     44     48     39     52     49     37     44
REFUSED               2      3      1      2      1      2      -
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Favorable            43%    45%    41%    41%    33%    44%    41%
Unfavorable           9      9     14     13     20     14     10
Hvn't hrd enough     43     45     43     45     47     40     47
REFUSED               4      1      2      2      -      2      2
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Favorable            64%    76%    61%    70%    71%    55%    66%
Unfavorable          29     22     33     23     26     37     26
Hvn't hrd enough      3      1      3      4      1      3      5
REFUSED               4      1      3      3      2      4      3
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Favorable            68%    57%    71%    62%    68%    67%    63%
Unfavorable          24     37     22     33     26     28     30
Hvn't hrd enough      2      3      2      3      4      2      3
REFUSED               6      3      5      2      2      3      4
 
 
10. Is your opinion of - Stephen Christopher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Favorable             3%     8%     2%     2%     3%     1%     7%
Unfavorable           6      6      6      4      7      4      7
Hvn't hrd enough     90     86     91     92     90     93     85
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      -      2      1
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Favorable             5%     5%     1%     2%     2%     3%     3%
Unfavorable           2      6      8      6      6      6      6
Hvn't hrd enough     89     88     90     92     88     89     90
REFUSED               3      1      1      1      3      2      1
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Approve              69%    76%    67%    74%    73%    62%    69%
Disapprove           26     20     28     22     23     30     24
DK/NA                 6      4      6      4      4      8      7
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Approve              73%    61%    74%    69%    68%    71%    67%
Disapprove           20     32     22     27     24     24     27
DK/NA                 7      7      4      4      8      4      7
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Approve              53%    34%    61%    49%    48%    67%    52%
Disapprove           12     23      8     14     12      8     12
DK/NA                35     43     31     38     41     25     35
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Approve              51%    54%    52%    56%    47%    53%    53%
Disapprove            8     10     13     13     17     14     10
DK/NA                41     36     35     31     36     33     37
 
 
13. Do you support or oppose banning smoking in New York City parks and beaches?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Support              52%    44%    56%    48%    48%    58%    54%
Oppose               43     52     39     47     45     37     42
DK/NA                 6      4      6      5      7      5      4
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Support              55%    50%    53%    52%    43%    44%    57%
Oppose               38     44     40     45     52     49     38
DK/NA                 7      6      7      3      5      6      5
 
                     AGE IN YRS.......    INCOME.............  NoColl College
                     18-34  35-54  55+    <50    50-100 >100K  Degree Degree
 
Support              56%    53%    48%    50%    47%    57%    46%    55%
Oppose               41     42     44     46     47     37     50     38
DK/NA                 3      4      8      4      5      5      4      7