October 26, 2009 - Bloomberg Blowout As Mayor Runs Up 18-Point Lead, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; 10 Percent Undecided On Eve Of Last Debate

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New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg leads Comptroller William Thompson 53 - 35 percent, with 10 percent undecided, among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Conservative Party candidate Stephen Christopher has 3 percent.

Mayor Bloomberg leads 81 - 10 percent among Republicans and 61 - 25 percent among independent voters, while Democrats split with 46 percent for Bloomberg and 44 percent for Thompson, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Christopher gets 5 percent of Republicans and 5 percent of independent voters, with 0 percent of Democrats.

White voters back Bloomberg 59 - 30 percent, while black voters support Thompson 57 - 24 percent. Hispanic voters back the Mayor 49 - 35 percent. Black voters have the highest undecided percentage, 18 percent.

The Mayor leads in every borough, from 50 - 33 percent in The Bronx to 59 - 27 percent in Staten Island. He leads 53 - 35 percent among men and 52 - 34 percent among women.

Only 16 percent of Thompson supporters and 18 percent of Bloomberg backers say they might change their mind.

"It's been shaping up all along, and now the new numbers say it looks like a Bloomberg blow-out," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"It's not only the money. Sure, Mayor Michael Bloomberg has spent a zillion dollars on this campaign - but he seems to have spent it wisely.

"And the Thompson campaign has stuttered. They tapped into real distaste for scrapping term limits, but that was pretty much their only issue and it doesn't seem to have been nearly enough," Carroll added.

"Historically, blowouts have a self-correcting tendency. That happened four years ago, when the polls showed a Bloomberg landslide and they were right - but the Election Day landslide wasn't as overwhelming as the poll numbers had measured.

"Will voters see those big Bloomberg numbers and decide they don't need to vote, or will the Mayor's well-oiled machine get them to the polls to run up the score?"

By a 63 - 29 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Bloomberg.

Thompson has a 39 - 23 percent favorability, with 33 percent who don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

For Christopher, 89 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

From October 23 - 25, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,088 New York City likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points. The sample was drawn from registered voter lists based on people who have voted in recent elections.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent, William Thompson the Democrat and Stephen Christopher the Conservative party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Bloomberg, Thompson or Christopher? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Thompson             35%    10%    44%    25%    30%    57%    35%
Bloomberg            53     81     46     61     59     24     49
Christopher           3      5      -      5      3      -      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                10      4     10      9      8     18     13
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Thompson             33%    35%    41%    33%    27%    35%    34%
Bloomberg            50     52     51     54     59     53     52
Christopher           4      2      1      2      7      4      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                14     11      7     11      6      7     12
 
 
1a. (If candidate choice given) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1.....................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Made up              82%    85%    81%    79%    84%    78%    66%
Might change         17     12     18     20     15     20     32
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      1      1      2
 
                     CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Thom   Bloom
 
Made up              83%    81%
Might change         16     18
DK/NA                 1      1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of - William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Favorable            39%    16%    47%    32%    37%    56%    31%
Unfavorable          23     40     17     29     27      8     15
Hvn't hrd enough     33     39     30     34     31     32     49
REFUSED               5      4      5      5      5      5      5
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Favorable            35%    35%    47%    39%    30%    41%    37%
Unfavorable          16     23     20     27     29     25     21
Hvn't hrd enough     44     37     26     28     38     30     36
REFUSED               5      5      8      5      2      5      6
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Favorable            63%    78%    59%    68%    66%    48%    62%
Unfavorable          29     18     31     26     27     42     21
Hvn't hrd enough      3      1      3      2      1      5     10
REFUSED               6      3      6      3      6      5      7
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Favorable            63%    61%    62%    63%    66%    59%    65%
Unfavorable          22     31     31     29     27     33     26
Hvn't hrd enough      8      3      2      1      1      2      3
REFUSED               7      5      5      7      5      6      6
 
 
4. Is your opinion of - Stephen Christopher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Favorable             2%     3%     2%     1%     3%     2%     1%
Unfavorable           8      4      9      5      7      7      9
Hvn't hrd enough     89     93     88     92     88     90     86
REFUSED               2      1      1      2      2      1      4
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Favorable             5%     1%     1%     2%     4%     3%     2%
Unfavorable           6      8      8      8      5      9      6
Hvn't hrd enough     88     89     90     87     89     86     91
REFUSED               1      2      1      3      1      2      1