November 2, 2009 - Bloomberg Leads Thompson By 12 Points, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds

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One day before the New York City Mayoral election, incumbent Michael Bloomberg leads Comptroller William Thompson 50 - 38 percent, with 10 percent undecided, among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Conservative Party candidate Stephen Christopher has 1 percent.

This compares to a 53 - 35 percent Mayor Bloomberg lead in an October 26 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest survey, Bloomberg leads 82 - 10 percent among Republicans and 61 - 21 percent among independent voters, while Thompson leads 48 - 43 percent among Democrats.

White voters back Bloomberg 66 - 24 percent, while black voters support Thompson 62 - 23 percent. Hispanic voters back the Mayor 51 - 43 percent. Fifteen percent of black voters are undecided, compared to 6 percent of white voters and 5 percent of Hispanics.

Thompson leads 45 - 41 percent in The Bronx and 45 - 42 percent in Brooklyn, while Bloomberg leads 60 - 34 percent in Manhattan, 53 - 35 percent in Queens and 57 - 20 percent in Staten Island.

Only 13 percent of Thompson or Bloomberg backers say they might change their mind.

"Mayor Michael Bloomberg hangs on to his double-digit lead the day before the election," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

From October 29 - November 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,360 New York City likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The sample was drawn from registered voter lists based on people who have voted in recent elections.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the 2009 election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat, Michael Bloomberg running as both a Republican and an Independent and Stephen Christopher the Conservative party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Thompson, Bloomberg or Christopher? (If Already Voted q1) Did you vote for Thompson, Bloomberg or Christopher? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Thompson             38%    10%    48%    21%    24%    62%    43%
Bloomberg            50     82     43     61     66     23     51
Christopher           1      3      -      3      3      -      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                10      5      8     15      6     15      5
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Thompson             45%    45%    34%    35%    20%    37%    39%
Bloomberg            41     42     60     53     57     50     50
Christopher           2      1      1      1      4      2      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      1      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                12     12      5     10     18     11     10
 
 
1a. (If candidate choice given q1, excludes already voted) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN Q1.....................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Made up              86%    91%    84%    90%    88%    83%    89%
Might change         13      9     15      9     11     16      9
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1      2
 
                     CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Thom   Bloom
 
Made up              86%    86%
Might change         13     13
DK/NA                 1      1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of - William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Favorable            45%    15%    54%    36%    35%    67%    45%
Unfavorable          21     46     14     29     32      6     13
Hvn't hrd enough     27     31     26     27     27     21     34
REFUSED               7      8      6      8      7      6      7
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Favorable            49%    46%    50%    42%    33%    46%    44%
Unfavorable          16     16     22     24     32     22     19
Hvn't hrd enough     30     31     21     27     30     23     30
REFUSED               5      8      7      8      5      8      6
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Favorable            63%    85%    58%    73%    74%    45%    65%
Unfavorable          28     13     33     20     20     41     30
Hvn't hrd enough      3      1      3      1      1      4      3
REFUSED               6      1      6      6      5     10      2
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Favorable            58%    56%    70%    65%    75%    63%    63%
Unfavorable          34     33     23     27     18     30     27
Hvn't hrd enough      4      4      2      2      2      1      4
REFUSED               4      8      5      7      5      6      6
 
 
4. Is your opinion of - Stephen Christopher favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Wht    Blk    Hisp
 
Favorable             3%     7%     2%     2%     3%     1%     6%
Unfavorable           7      4      7      9      8      7      7
Hvn't hrd enough     88     87     89     86     88     88     86
REFUSED               2      2      2      3      2      3      1
 
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  Men    Wom
 
Favorable             3%     2%     1%     4%     6%     4%     2%
Unfavorable           9      7      8      4      9      8      6
Hvn't hrd enough     87     88     88     88     84     85     89
REFUSED               1      3      2      3      1      3      2