November 21, 2012 - Quinn Has Big Early Lead In New York City Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Keep Mayor's Millions Out Of Race, More Voters Say

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With a 65 percent approval rating, higher than Mayor Michael Bloomberg, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn goes into the 2013 New York City mayoral election year with a commanding 32 percent of the Democratic Primary vote, more than the combined take of the other four known candidates, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Should Metropolitan Transportation Authority Chair & CEO Joseph Lhota run for mayor as a Republican, he loses to an unnamed Democratic candidate 60 - 9 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

If former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion runs on the Republican line, he also loses 62 - 11 percent.

Chasing Speaker Quinn in a Democratic primary are:
  • Former City Comptroller William Thompson with 10 percent;
  • Public Advocate Bill de Blasio with 9 percent;
  • City Comptroller John Liu with 5 percent;
  • Manhattan Borough President Scott Stringer with 4 percent.
The survey was conducted before Stringer dropped out of the mayoral race.

"Okay, the race for the White House is over and it's time to look at the New York City mayoral race, where the possibly decisive Democratic primary could be as early as June. The morning line? City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leaves the other Democratic contenders in the dust," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Politics buffs are talking about MTA Chair Joseph Lhota and former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion as possible Republican contenders for the West Wing at City Hall, but the public hasn't caught up with the pundits. Lhota and Carrion lose big to a generic Democrat."

New York City voters say 48 - 39 percent that Mayor Michael Bloomberg should not use his personal wealth to support one of the candidates for mayor. Even Republicans say 51 - 39 percent that Bloomberg should keep his money out of the race.

"Should Mayor Michael Bloomberg spend some of his zillions to try to elect the next mayor? More New Yorkers say no," Carroll said.

Police Commissioner Ray Kelly continues to have the highest approval rating of any city- wide official, 68 - 23 percent. His approval is 79 - 15 percent among white voters, 56 - 36 percent among black voters and 67 - 25 percent among Hispanic voters.

Approval ratings for other officials are:
  • 65 - 18 percent for Quinn;
  • 49 - 14 percent for de Blasio;
  • 48 - 22 percent for Liu;
  • 42 - 33 percent for Schools Chancellor Dennis Walcott;
  • Negative 38 - 45 percent for Lhota.
New York City voters approve 62 - 31 percent of the way New York City police are doing their job, but disapprove 53 - 42 percent of the Police Department's stop-and-frisk tactic. White voters approve of stop-and-frisk 55 - 39 percent, but disapproval is 70 - 28 percent among black voters and 64 - 33 percent among Hispanic voters.

Reducing stop-and-frisk will not lead to an increase in gun violence, voters say 52 - 37 percent. White voters are divided, as 47 percent say less stop-and-frisk would mean more crime and 43 percent say it won't. Black voters say 61 - 27 percent and Hispanic voters say 59 - 32 percent that crime would not increase.

"Stop-and-frisk continues to divide the city. White voters like it; black voters don't. But everyone likes their cops, especially Top Cop Ray Kelly," Carroll said.

From November 14 - 18, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,165 New York City voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If Registered Democrat) If the 2013 Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Scott Stringer, John Liu, Christine Quinn, William Thompson, and Bill de Blasio, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..................
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Stringer              4%     3%     5%     7%     2%     2%
Liu                   5      5      5      4      7      6
Quinn                32     33     32     40     28     32
Thompson             10     14      7      6     20      7
de Blasio             9     10      8      8      9      6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      2      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      1      1      1      3
DK/NA                37     30     41     32     34     43
 
TREND: (If Registered Democrat) If the 2013 Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were: Scott Stringer, John Liu, Christine Quinn, William Thompson, and Bill de Blasio, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..
                     Nov 21  Aug 15  May 10
                     2012    2012    2012
 
Stringer              4       4       4
Liu                   5       9       7
Quinn                32      29      26
Thompson             10      10      13
Allon                na       1       2
de Blasio             9       9      10
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2       2
DK/NA                37      34      34
 
 
2. If MTA head Joseph Lhota runs for mayor as a Republican, would you be more likely to vote for Lhota or for the Democratic candidate?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Lhota                 9%    43%     2%    11%    14%     5%    18%     3%     4%
Democrat             60      6     82     39     55     64     51     76     64
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)  7     15      3     12      8      7      8      5      9
DK/NA                23     36     12     38     24     23     24     16     22
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
Lhota                 4%     9%     9%    11%    19%     6%
Democrat             61     57     63     61     55     63
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)  9      8      8      6      3      8
DK/NA                26     26     20     23     23     24
 
 
3. If former Bronx Borough President Adolfo Carrion runs for mayor as a Republican, would you be more likely to vote for Carrion or for the Democratic candidate?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Carrion              11%    38%     5%    12%    14%     9%    14%     6%    12%
Democrat             62     18     83     40     58     66     56     74     62
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)  7     11      2     14      8      6      7      4     10
DK/NA                20     32     10     34     20     20     23     16     15
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
Carrion              19%    10%     7%     9%    15%     8%
Democrat             61     60     67     63     54     65
DEPENDS ON CAND(VOL)  5      7      9      7      6      7
DK/NA                15     23     17     21     25     21
 
 
5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              68%    89%    66%    69%    71%    65%    79%    56%    67%
Disapprove           23      9     24     23     23     23     15     36     25
DK/NA                 9      2     10      8      5     12      6      8      9
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
Approve              60%    66%    71%    70%    77%    67%
Disapprove           32     26     21     19     14     25
DK/NA                 8      8      8     11     10      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 21  Aug 16  Jun 14  May 10  Mar 13  May 12  Jan 16
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2011    2007
 
Approve              68      64      61      66      64      71      52
Disapprove           23      26      26      23      25      17      34
DK/NA                 9      10      13      10      11      13      14
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dennis Walcott is handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              42%    39%    46%    38%    44%    40%    37%    55%    36%
Disapprove           33     32     33     34     33     33     32     29     41
DK/NA                25     29     21     29     23     26     30     17     23
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS............
                     Yes    No     18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Approve              41%    44%    27%    50%    47%    36%
Disapprove           33     34     48     28     30     34
DK/NA                27     22     26     22     23     30
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
Approve              41%    38%    47%    44%    36%    33%
Disapprove           43     33     26     32     44     43
DK/NA                16     29     27     24     20     24
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Dennis Walcott is handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 21  Aug 15  Jun 14  May 10  Mar 14  Mar 14  May 11
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2011
 
Approve              42      37      37      39      43      43      31
Disapprove           33      31      35      34      31      31      21
DK/NA                25      31      28      27      26      26      48
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill de Blasio is handling his job as Public Advocate?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              49%    42%    56%    38%    52%    47%    46%    55%    50%
Disapprove           14     27     10     18     15     13     14     14     18
DK/NA                37     31     34     44     34     40     40     31     32
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
Approve              43%    55%    45%    49%    49%    56%
Disapprove           21     12     13     11     21     11
DK/NA                36     33     42     40     30     33
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Bill de Blasio is handling his job as Public Advocate?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 21  Aug 15  Jun 13  May 10  Mar 13  Nov 21  May 21
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2010
                                                                     
Approve              49      45      39      48      42      49      34
Disapprove           14      16      17      13      17      14      16
DK/NA                37      39      44      39      41      37      50
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              65%    46%    71%    60%    64%    66%    62%    66%    71%
Disapprove           18     34     13     22     22     14     22     17      8
DK/NA                18     20     16     18     14     21     16     17     21
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
Approve              69%    61%    67%    65%    62%    65%
Disapprove           14     18     20     17     18     18
DK/NA                17     20     14     18     20     16
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Christine Quinn is handling her job as City Council Speaker?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 21  Aug 15  Jun 13  May 10  Mar 13  Nov 21  Nov 25
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2008
                                                                     
Approve              65      56      55      57      59      65      40
Disapprove           18      27      24      23      20      18      29
DK/NA                18      17      21      20      21      18      31
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Liu is handling his job as City Comptroller?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              48%    40%    55%    41%    48%    48%    40%    60%    44%
Disapprove           22     34     18     28     26     19     29     16     19
DK/NA                30     26     27     32     25     33     31     24     38
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
Approve              49%    47%    42%    54%    48%    54%
Disapprove           17     19     29     22     29     19
DK/NA                34     34     29     24     24     27
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way John Liu is handling his job as City Comptroller?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 21  Aug 15  Jun 13  May 10  Mar 13  May 11  Dec 15
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2011    2011
 
Approve              48      43      40      41      40      57      38
Disapprove           22      31      32      32      37      14      35
DK/NA                30      26      28      27      23      30      27
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joseph Lhota is handling his job as head of the MTA?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              38%    50%    37%    39%    41%    36%    42%    34%    33%
Disapprove           45     32     46     46     45     45     38     51     53
DK/NA                17     18     17     15     14     19     20     16     13
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
Approve              28%    37%    44%    41%    31%    33%
Disapprove           52     46     36     46     55     48
DK/NA                20     17     19     13     14     20
 
 
12. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Very satisfied       11%     4%    12%    13%    14%     9%    13%     5%    14%
Smwht satisfied      52     45     57     45     53     51     48     58     47
Smwht dissatisfied   25     30     21     31     24     26     24     24     29
Very dissatisfied    11     18     10     10      9     12     13     12     10
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS............
                     Yes    No     18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Very satisfied       14%     8%     6%    16%    11%     9%
Smwht satisfied      54     49     48     54     53     52
Smwht dissatisfied   24     27     31     22     25     25
Very dissatisfied     8     15     14      8     10     13
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      1      1
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
Very satisfied        9%     9%    19%     9%     9%     7%
Smwht satisfied      56     50     55     51     40     51
Smwht dissatisfied   28     24     18     30     32     30
Very dissatisfied     7     16      6     10     18     11
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      2      -
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today; are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                             VERY+SMWHT...
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 21  Aug 15  Mar 13  Feb 08  Dec 14  Feb 11  Jul 02
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2011    1998    2003
 
Very satisfied       11       8      10       7       7      18       7
Smwht satisfied      52      49      52      50      44      58      23
Smwht dissatisfied   25      28      25      27      30      18      32
Very dissatisfied    11      15      12      15      17       5      38
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
13. Do you think Mayor Bloomberg's health initiatives for New York City residents have gone too far, not far enough, or are about right?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Too far              35%    60%    29%    37%    38%    32%    41%    34%    26%
Not far enough       19     11     21     18     18     20     12     24     31
About right          38     23     42     38     37     38     38     34     35
DK/NA                 8      6      9      8      6     10      9      8      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS............
                     Yes    No     18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Too far              32%    38%    31%    37%    36%    33%
Not far enough       17     22     24     15     22     16
About right          43     31     30     45     35     40
DK/NA                 8      9     14      4      7     11
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
Too far              33%    39%    26%    35%    48%    35%
Not far enough       28     20     15     18     15     21
About right          33     32     50     36     36     36
DK/NA                 6     10      9     10      1      8
 
 
14. Do you think Mayor Bloomberg should or should not use his personal wealth to support one of the candidates for New York City Mayor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Should use wealth    39%    39%    36%    42%    40%    37%    36%    39%    40%
No, should not       48     51     49     46     48     48     50     49     47
DK/NA                13     10     15     12     12     14     14     12     13
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
Should use wealth    38%    36%    45%    37%    34%    36%
No, should not       48     48     43     51     51     51
DK/NA                14     16     12     12     15     13
 
 
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the New York City police are doing their job?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              62%    87%    58%    67%    65%    59%    76%    47%    50%
Disapprove           31     11     33     29     30     31     19     42     42
DK/NA                 7      2     10      4      5      9      6     11      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS............
                     Yes    No     18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Approve              65%    58%    51%    65%    64%    63%
Disapprove           27     36     40     30     27     29
DK/NA                 9      6      9      4      9      8
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
Approve              54%    60%    62%    68%    69%    60%
Disapprove           42     32     29     26     21     32
DK/NA                 4      9      9      7     10      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the New York City police are doing their job?
                                                             APPROVE.......
                                                             High    Low
                     Nov 21  Aug 16  Jun 14  Mar 13  Feb 09  Feb 7   Apr 20
                     2012    2012    2012    2012    2012    2002    2000
 
Approve              62      57      59      63      62      76      43
Disapprove           31      33      32      31      30      18      48
DK/NA                 7      10       9       6       8       6       9
 
 
16. As you may know, there is a police practice known as stop and frisk, where police stop and question a person they suspect of wrongdoing and, if necessary, search that person. Do you approve or disapprove of this police practice?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Approve              42%    83%    33%    52%    45%    40%    55%    28%    33%
Disapprove           53     16     62     46     52     54     39     70     64
DK/NA                 5      2      5      3      3      6      6      2      3
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS............
                     Yes    No     18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Approve              41%    44%    36%    39%    44%    49%
Disapprove           53     53     60     57     50     46
DK/NA                 6      3      4      3      6      5
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
Approve              43%    40%    36%    46%    58%    39%
Disapprove           54     55     58     49     39     57
DK/NA                 3      5      6      5      3      4
 
TREND: As you may know, there is a police practice known as stop and frisk, where police stop and question a person they suspect of wrongdoing and, if necessary, search that person. Do you approve or disapprove of this police practice?
                     Nov 21  Aug 16  Jun 14  Mar 13
                     2012    2012    2012    2012
 
Approve              42      45      43      46
Disapprove           53      50      51      49
DK/NA                 5       5       6       5
 
 
17. Do you think that if the police reduced the number of stop and frisks there would be an increase in gun violence or don't you think that would happen?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Yes                  37%    70%    29%    46%    42%    33%    47%    27%    32%
No, wouldn't happen  52     25     60     43     47     56     43     61     59
DK/NA                11      5     10     11     11     11     10     11      9
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS............
                     Yes    No     18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
Yes                  37%    38%    33%    34%    40%    40%
No, wouldn't happen  54     48     57     57     48     47
DK/NA                 9     14     10      9     12     13
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
Yes                  33%    34%    34%    43%    50%    34%
No, wouldn't happen  54     54     56     45     46     56
DK/NA                12     11     10     12      4     11
 
TREND: Do you think that if the police reduced the number of stop and frisks there would be an increase in gun violence or don't you think that would happen? (*Aug 16 ...increase in gun violence or not")
                     Nov 21  Aug 16
                     2012    2012*
 
Yes                  37      41
No                   52      50
DK/NA                11       9
 
 
18. Which comes closer to your view; A)The police should take all steps necessary to prevent crime in New York City even if it means your basic civil liberties would be violated, or B)The police should take steps to prevent crime but not if those would violate your basic civil liberties?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
A)Take all steps     13%    30%     9%    19%    15%    12%    21%     7%     9%
B)Shldn't violate    84     66     89     78     83     84     76     89     91 
  civil liberties    
DK/NA                 3      4      3      3      2      4      3      4      1
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   AGE IN YEARS............
                     Yes    No     18-29  30-44  45-64  65+
 
A)Take all steps     12%    15%    11%    13%    14%    16%
B)Shldn't violate    86     81     88     87     82     77
  civil liberties    
DK/NA                 2      4      1      -      4      7
 
                                                        Union
                     Brnx   Kngs   Man    Qns    StIsl  HsHlds
 
A)Take all steps     13%    15%    11%    13%    22%    12%
B)Shldn't violate    86     82     86     84     76     86
  civil liberties    
DK/NA                 2      4      3      4      2      3
 
TREND: Which comes closer to your view; A)The police should take all steps necessary to prevent crime in New York City even if it means your basic civil liberties would be violated, or B)The police should take steps to prevent crime but not if those would violate your basic civil liberties?
                     Nov 21  Aug 16
                     2012    2012
 
A)Take all steps     13      16
B)Shldn't violate    84      78
  civil liberties    
DK/NA                 3       6
 

Demographic Summary