July 29, 2013 - Weiner Should Drop Out, NYC Likely Dem Voters Tell Quinnipiac University Poll; Quinn Leads, With De Blasio, Thompson Tied For Second

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Congressman Anthony Weiner drops to fourth place among likely Democratic primary voters in the race for New York City mayor as these likely voters say 53 - 40 percent he should drop out, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

There is almost no gender gap, but a wide racial gap on this question: Women say 54 - 42 percent that Weiner should drop out, compared to men at 52 - 37 percent. But black voters say 53 - 42 percent that Weiner should stay in the race, while white voters say 64 - 25 percent he should get out.

Weiner gets 16 percent of likely Democratic primary voters today, compared to his first- place position with 26 percent in a July 24 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe- ack) University.

City Council Speaker Christine Quinn leads the Democratic pack with 27 percent, with 21 percent for Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, 20 percent for former Comptroller William Thompson, 6 percent for Comptroller John Liu and 2 percent for former Council member Sal Albanese, the poll finds. Seven percent of likely Democratic primary voters remain undecided.

If Weiner drops out, Quinn gets 30 percent, with 25 percent each for Thompson and de Blasio and 9 percent for Liu.

"With six weeks to go, anything can happen, but it looks like former Congressman Anthony Weiner may have sexted himself right out of the race for New York City mayor," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"And with Weiner in free-fall, it begins to look like a three-way race again."

A July 24 Quinnipiac University poll showed Quinn at 30 percent if Weiner drops out, with 26 percent for Thompson and 21 percent for de Blasio.

In today's survey, Weiner gets 24 percent of black Democratic likely primary voters, down from 31 percent last week. Thompson gets 22 percent, with 21 percent for Quinn and 16 percent for de Blasio. Weiner's support among white voters drops from 23 percent last week to 7 percent today.

Having a "strong personal moral character" doesn't describe Weiner at all, 38 percent of New York City likely Democratic primary voters say, compared to 26 percent who said "not at all" last week. A total of 14 percent say having moral character characterizes Weiner a great deal or a good amount, compared to 17 percent last week.

Weiner's behavior is a legitimate issue in the mayoral campaign, voters say 65 - 34 percent.

This behavior disqualifies him from consideration as a candidate, 40 percent of voters say, compared to 23 percent last week. Another 40 percent say this behavior is a factor, but doesn't disqualify him and 20 percent say it is not a factor at all.

Thompson leads Quinn 50 - 40 percent in a Democratic primary runoff. He leads 53 - 41 percent among men, 49 - 40 percent among women, 49 - 40 percent among white voters and 58 - 33 percent among black voters.

Based on results of last week's poll, de Blasio was not included in a runoff question.

"Don't bet your paycheck. This is a really goofy election year," Carroll said.

"Lots of potential voters have been staying home in primaries and this poll evaluates those who are likely to turn up September 10. This is our second survey of these likely Democratic primary voters, a more nuanced look than earlier surveys of all registered voters."

From July 24 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 446 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu, Christine Quinn, Bill Thompson, Bill de Blasio, Anthony Weiner and Sal Albanese, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Liu, Quinn, Thompson, de Blasio, Weiner or Albanese? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Liu                   6%     7%     6%     5%     7%
Quinn                27     22     30     27     21
Thompson             20     25     17     24     22
de Blasio            21     22     21     26     16
Weiner               16     13     18      7     24
Albanese              2      5      -      4      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 7      5      8      7     10
 
TREND: If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu, Christine Quinn, Bill Thompson, Bill de Blasio, Anthony Weiner and Sal Albanese, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Liu, Quinn, Thompson, de Blasio, Weiner or Albanese? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jul 24
                     2013    2013
 
Liu                   6       7
Quinn                27      22
Thompson             20      20
de Blasio            21      15
Weiner               16      26
Albanese              2       1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -
DK/NA                 7       8
 
 
2. If Anthony Weiner got out of the race, for whom would you vote; John Liu, Christine Quinn, Bill Thompson, Bill de Blasio or Sal Albanese? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Liu, Quinn, Thompson, de Blasio or Albanese? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Liu                   9%     9%     9%     6%     9%
Quinn                30     23     35     28     30
Thompson             25     30     21     26     31
de Blasio            25     28     23     27     18
Albanese              2      4      1      3      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -      1      -
DK/NA                 8      5     10      8     13
 
 
3. (INTRO Q3-5: If none of the candidates in the Democratic primary for mayor gets 40% of the vote, there is a run-off election between the two candidates with the most votes.) If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Anthony Weiner and Christine Quinn, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward Weiner or Quinn? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Weiner               33%    38%    30%    24%    40%
Quinn                60     54     63     67     53
WOULDN'T VOTE(VOL)    3      3      3      4      3
DK/NA                 4      5      4      5      5
 
TREND: If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Anthony Weiner and Christine Quinn, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward Weiner or Quinn? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jul 24
                     2013    2013
 
Weiner               33      44
Quinn                60      46
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3
DK/NA                 4       6
 
 
4. If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Anthony Weiner and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward Weiner or Thompson? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Weiner               28%    27%    28%    16%    35%
Thompson             66     69     64     78     59
WOULDN'T VOTE(VOL)    1      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                 5      3      7      5      5
 
TREND: If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Anthony Weiner and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward Weiner or Thompson? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jul 24 
                     2013    2013
 
Weiner               28      41
Thompson             66      52
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1
DK/NA                 5       7
 
 
5. If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Christine Quinn and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward Quinn or Thompson? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Quinn                40%    41%    40%    40%    33%
Thompson             50     53     49     49     58
WOULDN'T VOTE(VOL)    2      1      3      3      1
DK/NA                 7      5      9      8      8
 
TREND: If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Christine Quinn and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward Quinn or Thompson? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jul 24
                     2013    2013
 
Quinn                40      42
Thompson             50      51
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2
DK/NA                 7       5
 
 
6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Approve              47%    47%    46%    53%    33%
Disapprove           45     44     46     40     57
DK/NA                 8      9      8      7     10
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jul 24
                     2013    2013
 
Approve              47      52
Disapprove           45      41
DK/NA                 8       8
 
 
7. How much would you say the phrase "has a strong personal moral character" describes Anthony Weiner? Does it describe him a great deal, a good amount, somewhat, not so much or not at all?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
A great deal          6%     4%     6%     3%    10%
A good amount         8      9      8      5      9
Somewhat             21     29     16     13     22
Not so much          22     27     19     25     25
Not at all           38     28     45     49     30
DK/NA                 5      3      5      4      4
 
TREND: How much would you say the phrase "has a strong personal moral character" describes Anthony Weiner? Does it describe him a great deal, a good amount, somewhat, not so much or not at all?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jul 24
                     2013    2013
 
A great deal          6       7
A good amount         8      10
Somewhat             21      24
Not so much          22      29
Not at all           38      26
DK/NA                 5       4
 
 
8. Do you think Anthony Weiner should remain in the race for Mayor or drop out of the race for Mayor?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Remain in race       40%    37%    42%    25%    53%
Drop out of race     53     52     54     64     42
DK/NA                 7     10      4     11      5
 
 
9. As you may know, Anthony Weiner resigned from the U.S. Congress after conceding that he'd sent lewd photos of himself to women he'd met on the internet. It's now been reported that this behavior continued until as recently as last summer. Regardless of whether or not you support him, do you think this is or is not a legitimate issue in the mayoral election?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Legitimate issue     65%    72%    60%    77%    58%
Not legitimate issue 34     28     38     23     39
DK/NA                 2      1      2      1      3
 
TREND: As you may know, Anthony Weiner resigned from the U.S. Congress after conceding that he'd sent lewd photos of himself to women he'd met on the internet. It's now been reported that this behavior continued until as recently as last summer. Regardless of whether or not you support him, do you think this is or is not a legitimate issue in the mayoral election? (*Added sentence: It's now been reported that this behavior continued until as recently as last summer)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jul 24
                     2013*   2013
 
Legitimate issue     65      50
Not legitimate issue 34      49
DK/NA                 2       2
 
 
10. Regardless of your vote preference, for you, would you say that Weiner's behavior disqualifies him from consideration as a candidate for mayor, it's a factor but not a disqualifying one, or it's not a factor in considering him as a candidate?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Disqualifies him     40%    40%    39%    50%    33%
Factor/Not disqualfy 40     38     41     38     41
Is not a factor      20     21     19     12     24
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      2
 
TREND: Regardless of your vote preference, for you, would you say that Weiner's behavior disqualifies him from consideration as a candidate for mayor, it's a factor but not a disqualifying one, or it's not a factor in considering him as a candidate?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Jul 29  Jul 24
                     2013    2013
 
Disqualifies him     40      23
Factor/Not disqualfy 40      41
Is not a factor      20      33
DK/NA                 1       2
 
 

Demographic Summary