August 28, 2013 - De Blasio Close To 40% In New York City Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Quinn, Thompson In Battle For Second Place
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With 13 days until the primary election, Public Advocate Bill de Blasio surges ahead of the Democratic pack for New York City mayor with 36 percent of likely voters, close to the 40 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

City Council Speaker Christine Quinn is at 21 percent, with 20 percent for former City Comptroller William Thompson, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Former U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner has 8 percent of likely Democratic primary voters, with 6 percent for City Comptroller John Liu, 1 percent for former Council member Sal Albanese and 8 percent undecided.

This compares to the results of an August 13 Quinnipiac University poll which showed de Blasio at 30 percent, with 24 percent for Quinn and 22 percent for Thompson.

In possible Democratic primary runoff matchups:
  • De Blasio tops Quinn 59 - 30 percent;
  • De Blasio leads Thompson 52 - 36 percent;
  • Thompson bests Quinn 57 - 33 percent.
"Talk about breaking out of the pack! Public Advocate Bill de Blasio, in fourth place just five weeks ago, is edging up on the magic 40 percent needed to avoid a Democratic primary runoff. And if there is a runoff, he clobbers Council Speaker Christine Quinn or former Comptroller and 2009 Democratic challenger William Thompson," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"De Blasio takes a big lead into the final turn. Let's see how he does in the home stretch."

New York City needs to take a new direction from three-term Mayor Michael Bloomberg, 65 percent of likely Democratic voters say, while 25 percent say continue in the direction in which Bloomberg has been leading.

Democratic likely primary voters list the qualities which will most decide their vote:
  • 30 percent want a strong leader;
  • 26 percent want someone who understands their problems;
  • 19 percent want someone with new ideas;
  • 18 percent want someone with the right experience.
De Blasio leads by wide margins among those who want a candidate who understands them and who has new ideas and ties Quinn among those who want a strong leader. Quinn leads among those who want a candidate with the right experience.

Thompson and de Blasio lead on enthusiasm: 36 percent of Thompson backers are "very enthusiastic" and 52 percent say they definitely will vote for him. Among de Blasio backers, 36 percent are "very enthusiastic" and 52 percent say they definitely will vote for him. For Quinn, 25 percent are "very enthusiastic" and 37 percent say they definitely will vote for her.

Among all Democratic likely voters, 31 percent say there is a "good chance" they'll change their mind in the next 13 days.

A gender gap is opening as de Blasio gets 43 percent of men and 30 percent of women, while Quinn gets 18 percent of men and 25 percent of women, with Thompson taking 18 percent of men and 21 percent of women. Black voters go 34 percent for de Blasio, 25 percent for Thompson and 15 percent for Quinn. White voters go 38 percent for de Blasio, 28 percent for Quinn and 18 percent for Thompson.

"The political clich‚, that the most liberal candidate wins the Democratic primary in New York, seems to be alive and well," Carroll said. "New ideas, like his tax-the-rich proposal, win big for de Blasio. Voters seem to be getting bored with Mayor Michael Bloomberg. Almost two thirds want a new direction by the next mayor."

From August 22 - 27, Quinnipiac University surveyed 602 likely Democratic primary voters with a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.
Likely Democratic Primary Voters


1. If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu, Christine Quinn, Bill Thompson, Bill de Blasio, Anthony Weiner and Sal Albanese, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Liu, Quinn, Thompson, de Blasio, Weiner or Albanese? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                                                        AGE IN YRS    COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    <50    50+    Yes    No
 
Liu                   6%     6%     7%     4%     5%     9%     5%     5%     8%
Quinn                21     18     25     28     15     21     22     24     19
Thompson             20     18     21     18     25     21     19     19     21
de Blasio            36     43     30     38     34     35     36     41     31
Weiner                8      7      8      5      9     10      7      4     13
Albanese              1      1      -      1      -      1      -      1      -
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8      7      9      7     12      3     10      7      8
 
                     POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                     LIBERAL.....  Mod/   PARTYID DEMS.....
                     Very   SmWht  Con    Strong NotStrong
 
Liu                   6%     7%     7%     6%     6%
Quinn                22     19     22     22     26
Thompson             13     23     21     17     20
de Blasio            50     42     29     40     25
Weiner                4      5     10      7     13
Albanese              -      -      1      -      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      3      9      7      9
 
                     DIRECTION Q11.........      MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q10
                     New           Same          Right  Undst  New    Strng
                     Direction     Direction     Exp    Prob   Ideas  Leadr
 
Liu                   8%            5%           13%     6%     9%     2%
Quinn                14            38            35     14      9     29
Thompson             23            17            17     20     22     20
de Blasio            42            22            23     46     42     29
Weiner                8             9             7      6     11     10
Albanese              -             3             1      1      -      1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -             1             1      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7             7             4      6      7      8
 
TREND: If the Democratic primary for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were John Liu, Christine Quinn, Bill Thompson, Bill de Blasio, Anthony Weiner and Sal Albanese, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward Liu, Quinn, Thompson, de Blasio, Weiner or Albanese? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Aug 28  Aug 13  Jul 29  Jul 24
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Liu                   6       6       6       7
Quinn                21      24      27      22
Thompson             20      22      20      20
de Blasio            36      30      21      15
Weiner                8      10      16      26
Albanese              1       1       2       1
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       -       -       -
DK/NA                 8       7       7       8
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice q1), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Quinn Thompsn deBlasio
 
Def vote for cand    49%    37%    52%    52%
Unlikely to change   15     11     16     16
Good chance change   31     47     26     27
DK/NA                 6      5      7      5
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Aug 28  Aug 13  Jul 24
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Def vote for cand    49      46      45
Unlikely to change   15      16      14
Good chance change   31      34      35
DK/NA                 6       4       6
 
 
1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate chosen), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Quinn Thompsn deBlasio
 
Very enthusiastic    33%    25%    36%    36%
Smwht enthusiastic   53     55     55     53
Not so enthusiastic   9     11      7      7
Not enthus at all     4      5      1      3
DK/NA                 1      3      1      -
 
TREND: (If candidate chosen) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Aug 28  Aug 13  Jul 24
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Very enthusiastic    33      30      27
Somewht enthusiastic 53      55      57
Not so enthusiastic   9      11      10
Not enthus at all     4       4       4
DK/NA                 1       1       2
 
 
1c. (If candidate chosen q1) Who is your second choice?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Quinn Thompsn deBlasio
 
Liu                   6%     3%     7%     9%
Quinn                14      -     17     20
Thompson             23     22      -     39
de Blasio            26     48     50      -
Weiner                9     10      2     14
Albanese              1      1      1      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      3      1
DK/NA                18     14     20     15
 
 
2. Are there any candidates in the Democratic primary for Mayor that you would definitely not vote for under any circumstances? IF YES: Who is that? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Liu                  17%    16%    17%    20%     7%
Quinn                29     31     27     26     33
Thompson              6      8      4      6      5
de Blasio             6      7      5      8      2
Weiner               47     41     51     60     36
Albanese              8     11      6     10      5
Other                 2      2      3      2      -
No-one               16     18     15     12     22
DK/NA                 7      6      7      2     11
 
TREND: Are there any candidates in the Democratic primary for Mayor that you would definitely not vote for under any circumstances? IF YES: Who is that? (Totals may add up to more than 100% because multiple responses were allowed)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Aug 28  Aug 13  Jul 24
                     2013    2013    2013
 
Liu                  17      15      18
Quinn                29      24      31
Thompson              6       5       5
de Blasio             6       3       7
Weiner               47      51      28
Albanese              8       5       8
Other                 2       1       1
No-one               16      14      24
DK/NA                 7      10       9
 
 
3. (INTRO Q3-5: If none of the candidates in the Democratic primary for mayor gets 40% of the vote, there is a run-off election between the two candidates with the most votes.) If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Christine Quinn, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Quinn? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                                                        AGE IN YRS    COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    <50    50+    Yes    No
 
de Blasio            59%    61%    56%    55%    66%    56%    60%    59%    58%
Quinn                30     28     32     36     24     34     29     32     29
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      2      3      1      3      3      2      4
DK/NA                 8      7      9      6      9      7      8      6     10
 
                     POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                     LIBERAL.....  Mod/   PARTYID DEMS.....
                     Very   SmWht  Con    Strong NotStrong
 
de Blasio            64%    68%    53%    61%    48%
Quinn                31     28     32     29     39
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      5      2      5
DK/NA                 5      4     10      8      7
 
                     DIRECTION Q11..........     MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q10
                     New           Same          Right  Undst  New    Strng
                     Direction     Direction     Exp    Prob   Ideas  Leadr
 
de Blasio            71%           31%           45%    71%    77%    46%
Quinn                20            54            48     21     16     39
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1             7             4      1      1      4
DK/NA                 8             7             4      6      6     11
 
TREND: (INTRO: If none of the candidates in the Democratic primary for mayor gets 40% of the vote, there is a run-off election between the two candidates with the most votes.) If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Christine Quinn, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Quinn? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Aug 28  Aug 13
                     2013    2013
 
de Blasio            59      54
Quinn                30      38
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3
DK/NA                 8       5
 
 
4. If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Thompson? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                                                        AGE IN YRS    COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    <50    50+    Yes    No
 
de Blasio            52%    53%    52%    58%    42%    52%    53%    59%    46%
Thompson             36     34     38     33     47     37     35     34     38
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      2      2      1      2      2      2      3
DK/NA                 9     11      8      6     11      9     10      6     13
 
                     POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                     LIBERAL.....  Mod/   PARTYID DEMS.....
                     Very   SmWht  Con    Strong NotStrong
 
de Blasio            67%    56%    47%    58%    44%
Thompson             26     33     41     32     39
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      4      1      5
DK/NA                 7     11      8      9     11
 
                     DIRECTION Q11............   MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q10
                     New           Same          Right  Undst  New    Strng
                     Direction     Direction     Exp    Prob   Ideas  Leadr
 
de Blasio            54%           46%           48%    56%    58%    51%
Thompson             36            42            42     35     36     36
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -             7             4      -      1      3
DK/NA                11             5             7      8      5     10
 
TREND: If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Bill de Blasio and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward de Blasio or Thompson? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Aug 28  Aug 13
                     2013    2013
 
de Blasio            52      50
Thompson             36      41
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       2
DK/NA                 9       7
 
 
5. If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Christine Quinn and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward Quinn or Thompson? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                                                        AGE IN YRS    COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    <50    50+    Yes    No
 
Quinn                33%    29%    36%    44%    18%    36%    31%    38%    27%
Thompson             57     58     56     48     71     57     57     54     61
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      4      1      2      1      3      2      2      4
DK/NA                 8      9      7      6     10      4     10      6      9
 
                     POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                     LIBERAL.....  Mod/   PARTYID DEMS.....
                     Very   SmWht  Con    Strong NotStrong
 
Quinn                40%    36%    30%    34%    37%
Thompson             53     58     59     58     49
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      4      1      7
DK/NA                 6      5      8      7      7
 
                     DIRECTION Q11............   MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q10
                     New           Same          Right  Undst  New    Strng
                     Direction     Direction     Exp    Prob   Ideas  Leadr
 
Quinn                22%           56%           47%    25%    19%    41%
Thompson             69            33            43     68     75     49
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1             6             4      1      2      3
DK/NA                 8             5             6      6      4      7
 
TREND: If there is a run-off in the Democratic primary for mayor, and the candidates are Christine Quinn and Bill Thompson, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If the runoff were today, would you lean more toward Quinn or Thompson? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Aug 28  Aug 13  Jul 29  Jul 24
                     2013    2013    2013    2013
 
Quinn                33      41      40      42
Thompson             57      51      50      51
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3       3       2       2
DK/NA                 8       6       7       5
 
 
7. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the Thompson campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Quinn Thompsn deBlasio
 
Yes                  16%    10%    35%    11%
No                   82     87     63     86
DK/NA                 2      4      2      2
 
 
8. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the Quinn campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Quinn Thompsn deBlasio
 
Yes                  20%    25%    26%    19%
No                   77     73     71     78
DK/NA                 3      2      3      3
 
 
9. Have you personally been contacted by a representative of the De Blasio campaign, either by phone, in-person, or online asking you for your support, or not?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1..........
                            CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Quinn Thompsn deBlasio
 
Yes                  17%    11%    21%    19%
No                   80     86     77     80
DK/NA                 2      3      2      1
 
 
10. Which of these is the most important personal quality in deciding your vote in the Democratic primary for Mayor? Is it someone who has the right experience, someone who understands your problems, someone who has new ideas, or someone who is a strong leader?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                                                        AGE IN YRS    COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    <50    50+    Yes    No
 
Right experience     18%    19%    18%    20%    19%    19%    17%    21%    15%
Understands problems 26     30     23     24     26     28     25     28     25
Has new ideas        19     21     16     19     21     18     19     17     20
Strong leader        30     25     35     29     32     30     31     28     33
DK/NA                 7      5      8      8      2      5      8      7      7
 
                     POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                     LIBERAL.....  Mod/   PARTYID DEMS.....
                     Very   SmWht  Con    Strong NotStrong
 
Right experience     19%    25%    16%    20%    17%
Understands problems 24     36     22     28     22
Has new ideas        24     16     18     16     24
Strong leader        26     20     36     31     32
DK/NA                 7      3      7      5      5
 
                     DIRECTION Q11............   
                     New           Same          
                     Direction     Direction     
 
Right experience     14%           28%
Understands problems 32            16
Has new ideas        21            13
Strong leader        26            40
DK/NA                 6             3
 
 
11. Which comes closer to your point of view, would you say the city needs to take a new direction from Mike Bloomberg's, or the city should continue in the direction in which Mike Bloomberg has been leading?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS............................
                                                        AGE IN YRS    COLLEGE DEG
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    <50    50+    Yes    No
 
New direction        65%    65%    65%    53%    86%    65%    65%    60%    70%
Bloomberg direction  25     28     23     35      9     28     24     29     20
BOTH(VOL)             6      5      7      6      5      6      7      7      5
DK/NA                 4      2      5      5      -      2      5      3      5
 
                     POLITICAL PHILOSOPHY
                     LIBERAL.....  Mod/   PARTYID DEMS.....
                     Very   SmWht  Con    Strong NotStrong
 
New direction        65%    67%    63%    68%    58%
Bloomberg direction  23     17     31     20     35
BOTH(VOL)             9     12      3      6      6
DK/NA                 3      4      4      5      1
 
                     MOST IMPORTANT QUALITY Q10
                     Right  Undst  New    Strng
                     Exp    Prob   Ideas  Leadr
 
New direction        51%    79%    74%    55%
Bloomberg direction  39     15     17     33
BOTH(VOL)             5      4      7      8
DK/NA                 6      2      2      3
 
 
12. If a candidate for Mayor is a Boston Red Sox fan, are you more likely to vote for that candidate, less likely to vote for that candidate, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY DEMOCRATIC PRIMARY VOTERS
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
More likely           2%     3%     2%     3%     1%
Less likely           8     10      6      7      6
No difference        88     86     90     87     91
DK/NA                 2      2      3      3      2
 
 

Demographic Summary