October 3, 2013 - de Blasio Landslide Buries Lhota In New York City, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Want Insider For Next Police Commissioner
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Public Advocate Bill de Blasio's landslide is picking up speed in the New York City mayoral race and threatens to bury Republican Joseph Lhota 71 - 21 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Independence Party candidate Adolfo Carrion has 2 percent.

There is a small gender gap and a larger racial gap: White voters support de Blasio 55 - 40 percent while black voters back the Democrat 90 - 6 percent, with Hispanic support at 79 - 10 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Only 5 percent of voters remain undecided, but 11 percent of voters who name a candidate say there is "good chance" they will change their mind in the next five weeks.

Among de Blasio voters, 38 percent are "very enthusiastic" and 49 percent are "somewhat enthusiastic." Among Lhota backers, 26 percent are "very enthusiastic" and 54 percent are "somewhat enthusiastic."

By a 69 - 19 percent margin, New York City voters have a favorable opinion of de Blasio. Lhota has a negative 26 - 36 percent favorability, with 33 percent who haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion. For Carrion, 73 percent don't know enough to form an opinion.

"These numbers say Public Advocate Bill de Blasio's kids can start arguing over who gets the best bedroom in Gracie Mansion," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The flurry of negative headlines about name changes, the Sandanista visit, the Cuban honeymoon don't seem to have any effect."

"It's a new city demographically and de Blasio captures it. His primary-election coalition, with huge support among black and Hispanic voters, holds in this poll taken after primary-day opinions had time to settle in," Carroll added.

New York City likely voters say 55 - 26 percent that de Blasio will do a better job than Lhota keeping them safe and say 63 - 18 percent that the Democrat will do a better job improving the public schools.

If de Blasio is elected, taxes will go up, 35 percent say, while 7 percent say taxes will go down and 46 percent say they won't change.

If Lhota is elected, taxes will go up, 37 percent say, while 4 percent say they will go down and 43 percent say they will stay the same.

"There's a note of realism, or cynicism, when voters contemplate taxes. Voters think they'll either go up or stay the same whoever is elected," Carroll said.

The police stop and frisk tactic is excessive and harasses innocent people, 51 percent of voters say, while 41 percent say it is an acceptable way to keep the city safe. White voters support stop and frisk 56 - 37 percent while opposition is 67 - 24 percent among black voters and 54 - 36 percent among Hispanic voters.

But 62 percent of New York City voters say they want the next police commissioner to come from the ranks of the New York Police Department, while 24 percent want a "fresh face" from outside the NYPD.

There is general agreement among men, women, black, white and Hispanic voters on this question.

"Stop and frisk remains a racially divisive issue. But, if voters think that practice means the cops misbehave, everyone, white, black and Hispanic, still would like the next commissioner to be an NYPD veteran," Carroll said.

From September 25 - October 1, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,198 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points. Live interviewers call land lines and cell phones.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, Colorado, Iowa and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more information, visit http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling, or call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat, Joe Lhota the Republican, and Adolfo Carrion, the Independence Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward de Blasio, Lhota, or Carrion?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
de Blasio            71%     9%    87%    61%    67%    75%    55%    90%    79%
Lhota                21     79      8     30     25     17     40      6     10
Carrion               2      3      1      3      2      2      2      -      4
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      -      -      1      1      1      -
DK/NA                 5      8      4      6      5      5      3      2      8
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
de Blasio            68%    74%    77%    72%    65%    79%    74%    68%
Lhota                25     18     14     20     31     13     20     25
Carrion               2      2      2      1      1      3      1      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      -      -      1      -
DK/NA                 5      6      6      6      3      5      4      4
 
                     STOP AND FRISK Q12
                     Excssv Accptbl
 
de Blasio            87%    52%
Lhota                 6     41
Carrion               2      2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -
DK/NA                 4      5
 
TREND: If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Bill de Blasio the Democrat, Joe Lhota the Republican, and Adolfo Carrion, the Independence Party candidate, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) As of today, do you lean more toward de Blasio, Lhota, or Carrion? (Table includes leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013
 
de Blasio            71      66
Lhota                21      25
Carrion               2       2
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
DK/NA                 5       6
 
 
1a. (If candidate chosen q1) Will you definitely vote for (Candidate of choice), or is there a chance you could change your mind and vote for another of the candidates? IF CHANGE MIND: Would you say there's a good chance you'll change your mind, or would you say it's pretty unlikely?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Lhota  deBlasio
 
Def vote for cand    77%    70%    79%
Unlikely to change   10      9     11
Good chance change   11     19      8
DK/NA                 2      2      2
 
 
1b. (If candidate chosen q1) Would you say you are very enthusiastic about supporting (Candidate of choice), somewhat enthusiastic, not so enthusiastic, or not enthusiastic at all?
                     LIKELY VOTERS...............
                     CANDIDATE CHOSEN Q1.........
                           CANDIDATE OF CHOICE Q1
                     Tot   Lhota  deBlasio
 
Very enthusiastic    35%    26%    38%
Somewht enthusiastic 50     54     49
Not so enthusiastic   9     15      8
Not enthus at all     4      4      4
DK/NA                 2      1      2
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            69%    23%    81%    57%    68%    69%    55%    86%    70%
Unfavorable          19     65      8     28     22     15     34      3     12
Hvn't hrd enough     11     11     10     14      8     14     10     10     17
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      1      2      1      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Bill de Blasio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013
 
Favorable            69      63
Unfavorable          19      21
Hvn't hrd enough     11      14
REFUSED               2       2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Joe Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            26%    77%    15%    35%    34%    19%    43%     8%    14%
Unfavorable          36      6     43     34     37     35     33     45     31
Hvn't hrd enough     33     17     38     27     25     40     22     43     45
REFUSED               4      -      4      4      3      6      3      5      9
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe Lhota favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013
 
Favorable            26      30
Unfavorable          36      35
Hvn't hrd enough     33      32
REFUSED               4       3
 
 
4. Is your opinion of Adolfo Carrion favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Favorable            10%     6%    12%     8%    11%    10%     6%    14%    19%
Unfavorable          14     19     14     14     17     12     11     17     10
Hvn't hrd enough     73     75     72     77     69     76     81     66     66
REFUSED               2      -      2      2      3      2      2      3      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Adolfo Carrion favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013
 
Favorable            10       9
Unfavorable          14      10
Hvn't hrd enough     73      78
REFUSED               2       3
 
 
5. Do you think Bill de Blasio is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Liberal              27%    76%    14%    43%    34%    21%    45%     7%    16%
Conservative          2      1      2      3      4      1      1      1      3
About right          61     13     76     45     56     66     45     84     64
DK/NA                10     11      8     10      6     13      8      7     16
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Liberal              34%    21%    17%    27%    41%    21%    25%    30%
Conservative          1      3      3      2      1      2      3      2
About right          58     64     68     63     55     69     66     58
DK/NA                 6     13     12      8      3      8      6     11
 
 
6. Do you think Joe Lhota is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Liberal               5%     5%     6%     3%     5%     5%     3%     8%     7%
Conservative         39     12     43     40     43     35     37     42     30
About right          27     70     17     37     31     24     42     15     14
DK/NA                29     13     34     20     21     36     17     36     49
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Liberal               2%     8%     8%     5%     2%     6%     6%     5%
Conservative         48     30     29     45     50     33     44     39
About right          29     25     24     27     32     29     22     30
DK/NA                20     37     39     23     16     31     28     26
 
 
7. Regardless of who you support in the election for mayor, do you think Bill de Blasio or Joe Lhota would do a better job - keeping you and your family safe?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
de Blasio            55%     8%    69%    37%    51%    58%    36%    80%    62%
Lhota                26     78     13     41     31     22     44      9     15
DK/NA                19     14     18     22     18     20     19     11     22
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
de Blasio            50%    59%    61%    55%    47%    68%    57%    51%
Lhota                32     21     19     28     36     20     25     30
DK/NA                18     20     20     18     17     13     18     19
 
TREND: Regardless of who you support in the election for mayor, do you think Bill de Blasio or Joe Lhota would do a better job keeping you and your family safe?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013
 
de Blasio            55      50
Lhota                26      27
DK/NA                19      23
 
 
8. Regardless of who you support in the election for mayor, do you think Bill de Blasio or Joe Lhota would do a better job - improving the public schools?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
de Blasio            63%     9%    78%    51%    59%    66%    47%    84%    69%
Lhota                18     67      8     24     23     14     31      6     11
DK/NA                19     24     14     25     18     20     21     10     20
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......    HvKids
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+    InPubSch
 
de Blasio            63%    63%    67%    65%    61%    73%    68%    58%    70%
Lhota                19     17     16     17     24     10     17     22     11
DK/NA                18     19     17     18     16     17     15     20     19
 
TREND: Regardless of who you support in the election for mayor, do you think Bill de Blasio or Joe Lhota would do a better job improving the public schools?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013
 
de Blasio            63      61
Lhota                18      17
DK/NA                19      21
 
 
9. If Bill de Blasio is elected Mayor, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Go up                35%    73%    23%    50%    40%    30%    47%    21%    25%
Go down               7      -      9      3      7      7      2      8     15
Stay about the same  46     16     53     40     44     47     41     57     41
DK/NA                13     11     15      7     10     16     10     13     19
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Go up                41%    29%    25%    35%    49%    26%    34%    37%
Go down               4     10     12      4      3     15      6      5
Stay about the same  47     45     48     52     41     47     49     44
DK/NA                 9     17     14      9      8     11     10     14
 
TREND: If Bill de Blasio is elected Mayor, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013
 
Go up                35      36
Go down               7       6
Stay about the same  46      46
DK/NA                13      11
 
 
10. If Joe Lhota is elected Mayor, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Go up                37%    14%    42%    33%    35%    38%    24%    51%    40%
Go down               4      8      3      8      6      3      4      7      2
Stay about the same  43     65     38     51     48     39     59     27     30
DK/NA                16     12     18      8     12     19     13     15     27
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Go up                30%    42%    40%    41%    31%    33%    41%    34%
Go down               2      6      6      2      6      7      4      4
Stay about the same  55     32     34     44     56     49     41     45
DK/NA                12     19     20     13      7     11     15     17
 
TREND: If Joe Lhota is elected Mayor, do you think your taxes will go up, go down, or stay about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013
 
Go up                37      36
Go down               4       5
Stay about the same  43      44
DK/NA                16      15
 
 
11. Do you think the next police commissioner should: A) Come from the ranks of the New York City Police Department, or B) Be a fresh face from outside the New York City Police Department?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
A) From NYPD ranks   62%    86%    59%    60%    62%    62%    63%    59%    65%
B) Outside NYPD      24      6     26     28     25     23     18     32     24
DK/NA                14      8     15     12     14     15     19      9     11
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
A) From NYPD ranks   58%    65%    60%    69%    59%    59%    67%    59%
B) Outside NYPD      24     24     28     21     23     38     22     22
DK/NA                18     11     12     10     18      4     11     19
 
                     STOP AND FRISK Q12
                     Excssv Accptbl
 
A) From NYPD ranks   51%    77%
B) Outside NYPD      33     12
DK/NA                16     11
 
 
12. As you may know, there is a police practice known as stop and frisk, where police stop and question a person they suspect of wrongdoing and, if necessary, search that person. Do you think stop and frisk is excessive and innocent people are being harassed, or do you think stop and frisk is an acceptable way to make New York City safer?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..............................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    Hsp
 
Excessive            51%    12%    59%    44%    48%    53%    37%    67%    54%
Acceptable           41     82     32     48     45     38     56     24     36
DK/NA                 8      6      9      8      8      9      7     10     10
 
                     COLLEGE DEG   ANNUAL HSHOLD INC    AGE IN YRS.......
                     Yes    No     <50K   50-100 >100K  18-34  35-54  55+
 
Excessive            53%    49%    51%    54%    49%    61%    58%    43%
Acceptable           40     42     39     40     46     30     37     48
DK/NA                 7      9     11      6      5      9      6      9
 
TREND: As you may know, there is a police practice known as stop and frisk, where police stop and question a person they suspect of wrongdoing and, if necessary, search that person. Do you think stop and frisk is excessive and innocent people are being harassed, or do you think stop and frisk is an acceptable way to make New York City safer?
                     LIKELY VOTERS
                     Oct 03  Sep 19
                     2013    2013
 
Excessive            51      55
Acceptable           41      39
DK/NA                 8       6
 
 

Demographic Summary