November 25, 2003 - Ferrer Or Miller Beat Mayor Bloomberg, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; No Thanksgiving Invite For Mayor, Voters Say
Possible Democratic challenger Fernando Ferrer leads Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg 51 - 33 percent in an early look at the 2005 New York City mayoral contest, and City Council Speaker Gifford Miller tops the Mayor 41 - 33 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Only 23 percent of New York City voters want to see the Mayor reelected, while 62 percent want a new mayor.

White voters back Bloomberg over Ferrer 50 - 35 percent, as black voters back the challenger 70 - 15 percent and Hispanic voters back Ferrer 70 - 19 percent.

In a matchup with Miller, Bloomberg leads 44 - 29 percent among white voters as black voters back Miller 53 - 21 percent and Hispanic voters go 56 - 25 percent for Miller.

New York City voters give Bloomberg a negative 37 - 51 percent approval rating, compared to 42 - 47 percent in an October 22 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll. Bloomberg's approval ratings had been rising before this latest setback.

"There's not much for Mayor Bloomberg to be thankful for this holiday season. His job approval numbers, which were bad but getting better, are heading south again. And 61 percent of New Yorkers would not want to share Thanksgiving dinner with their mayor," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"At this very early stage of the reelection game, Speaker Gifford Miller leads the Mayor by a little - and Fernando Ferrer thumps him," Carroll added.

The November 4 referendum rejection of the Mayor's proposal to eliminate political party primaries was a vote against Bloomberg, 35 percent of New York City voters say, while 52 percent say Bloomberg was not a "major factor" in the vote.

The vote against no-party primaries helps the Democrats, 23 percent of voters say, as 46 percent say it doesn't make much difference.

Only 12 percent of voters have a favorable opinion of the Workers Family Party, while 71 percent say the haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Police Commissioner Raymond Kelly has a 69 - 15 percent approval rating, the highest among any city-wide official. Other approval ratings are:
  • 35 - 33 percent for Schools Chancellor Joel Klein, with 33 percent undecided;
  • 37 - 14 percent for Comptroller William Thompson, with 49 percent undecided;
  • 41 - 19 percent for Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum, with 40 percent undecided.
President George W. Bush gets a highly negative 31 - 64 percent approval rating among New York City voters.

"The star of the Bloomberg team continues to be Police Commissioner Ray Kelly. And if it's any consolation for the Mayor, his fellow Republican - President Bush - is deep in the disapproval dumps as well," Carroll said.

From November 17 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,147 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?

                                                                        Union
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom   HsHold


Approve 37% 42% 36% 38% 46% 29% 31% 38% 36% 33% Disapprove 51 44 54 48 42 59 57 49 52 54 DK/NA 13 14 11 14 13 12 12 13 12 13



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?

                                                                        Union
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom   HsHold


Approve 31% 76% 18% 30% 40% 16% 35% 36% 27% 30% Disapprove 64 19 77 66 55 77 59 60 67 66 DK/NA 5 5 5 5 5 7 6 4 6 4



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Joel Klein is handling his job as New York City Schools Chancellor?

                                                                        Union
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom   HsHold


Approve 35% 42% 33% 36% 37% 37% 31% 40% 31% 36% Disapprove 33 28 34 30 26 39 39 28 36 38 DK/NA 33 30 32 34 37 24 30 32 33 26



4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner?

                                                                        Union
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom   HsHold


Approve 69% 79% 67% 68% 76% 63% 64% 73% 65% 71% Disapprove 15 12 15 18 7 27 16 15 16 14 DK/NA 16 8 18 15 17 9 20 12 19 14



5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way William Thompson is handling his job as City Comptroller?
                                                                        Union
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom   HsHold


Approve 37% 35% 39% 37% 33% 46% 39% 41% 33% 43% Disapprove 14 15 12 14 9 19 15 13 15 12 DK/NA 49 50 49 49 58 34 46 46 52 45



6. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Betsy Gotbaum is handling her job as Public Advocate?
                                                                        Union
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom   HsHold


Approve 41% 27% 46% 42% 37% 50% 42% 39% 44% 41% Disapprove 19 28 16 18 20 17 17 21 17 20 DK/NA 40 45 38 41 43 33 41 41 39 39



7. Michael Bloomberg will be up for re-election in 2005. Would you like to see Michael Bloomberg re-elected Mayor, or would you rather see someone else elected Mayor?

                                                                        Union
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom   HsHold


Bloomberg 23% 36% 18% 27% 31% 14% 17% 26% 21% 21% Someone else 62 47 70 57 52 74 74 59 65 66 DK/NA 14 17 12 15 17 12 10 15 14 13



8. Suppose the general election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                        Union
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom   HsHold


Miller 41% 18% 54% 29% 29% 53% 56% 36% 45% 44% Bloomberg 33 58 23 40 44 21 25 37 29 27 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 5 5 4 6 5 4 5 5 5 6 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 2 2 3 2 3 2 3 DK/NA 19 16 17 24 21 20 11 19 20 19



9. Suppose the general election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat and Michael Bloomberg the Republican for whom would you vote?

                                                                        Union
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom   HsHold


Ferrer 51% 26% 65% 42% 35% 70% 70% 46% 55% 54% Bloomberg 33 60 22 40 50 15 19 39 29 30 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 4 2 3 3 1 2 3 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 2 3 4 2 2 3 3 DK/NA 10 8 8 12 10 10 6 10 10 9



10. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                                        Union
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom   HsHold


Very satisfied 5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% 4% 4% Smwht satisfied 40 52 38 39 49 31 34 45 36 34 Smwht dissat 30 25 30 34 30 32 33 29 31 34 Very dissat 24 18 27 20 15 32 28 19 28 28 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 2 - 1 1 1



11. As you may know, voters rejected Mayor Bloomberg's plan to eliminate party primaries.

Some people say that voters were essentially voting against the mayor by opposing the plan because he was its primary sponsor. Others say that Mayor Bloomberg was not a major factor in the election. Which comes closer to your view?

                                                                        Union
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom   HsHold


Voting against Mayor 35% 30% 37% 33% 31% 42% 38% 34% 35% 37% Not a factor in election 52 59 49 54 57 43 50 53 51 55 DK/NA 13 11 13 12 12 15 12 12 13 8



12. Do you think the defeat of the plan to eliminate party primaries in New York City helps the Democratic party, hurts the Democratic party, or doesn't make much difference to the Democratic party?

                                                                        Union
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom   HsHold


Helps 23% 24% 25% 22% 28% 24% 15% 25% 21% 29% Hurts 21 16 25 19 18 25 25 19 23 20 No difference 46 51 40 51 45 44 46 47 45 42 DK/NA 10 9 10 8 10 6 14 8 11 9



20. Would you like Mayor Bloomberg to have Thanksgiving dinner with you or not?

                                                                        Union
                  Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom   HsHold


Yes 36% 41% 31% 43% 43% 31% 30% 44% 30% 38% No 61 55 65 55 54 67 65 53 67 59 DK/NA 4 4 3 2 3 2 4 3 4 3