May 2, 2001 - Any Dem Candidate Tops Bloomberg In Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Green Leads Dem Pact, As Hevesi Moves Into 3-Way Tie
Any of the four Democrats running in the New York City mayoral race would top possible Republican candidate Michael Bloomberg in an early look at a general election matchup by a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
Possible general election matchups show:
  • City Council Speaker Peter Vallone over Bloomberg 58 - 19 percent, with 19 percent undecided;
  • Public Advocate Mark Green over Bloomberg 62 - 19 percent, with 16 percent undecided;
  • City Comptroller Alan Hevesi over Bloomberg 57 - 20 percent, with 19 percent undecided;
  • Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer over Bloomberg 52 - 24 percent, with 19 percent undecided.



From April 23 - 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 917 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2 percent. The survey includes 556 registered Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.2 percent.

"He gets a lot of media attention, but at this stage, Michael Bloomberg doesn't register among New York City voters. They don't know him and won't vote for him. Each Democrat tops Bloomberg 2-1 or more," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"If Bloomberg does enter the race and starts spending big bucks, we can expect things to get interesting," Carroll added.

Green continues to dominate a four-way Democratic primary, getting 33 percent, while Hevesi has moved into a tie for second place: Ferrer and Hevesi each get 17 percent, while Vallone gets 13 percent.

If any of the other three candidates drop out, most of their support shifts to Green, putting him over the 40 percent needed to avoid a primary runoff.
  • If Hevesi drops out, Green gets 42 percent to Ferrer's 20 percent to Vallone's 19 percent.
  • With Vallone out, Green gets 40 percent to Ferrer's 20 percent to Hevesi's 20 percent.
  • With Ferrer out, Green gets 43 percent to Hevesi's 19 percent to Vallone's 17 percent.



Mayor Rudolph Giuliani gets a 50 - 40 percent approval rating. By a 40 - 34 percent margin, New York City voters have a favorable opinion of Mayor Giuliani, with 24 percent mixed and 1 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings for possible mayoral candidates are:
                   Favorable     Unfavorable     Mixed     No Opinion
Ferrer                32%            11%          22%          34%
Green                 42             12           20           26
Hevesi                30             10           25           35
Vallone               31             11           25           31
Bloomberg             10             10           15           65
Herman Badillo        14             16           21           49



"The numbers wiggle back and forth, but Green holds a solid lead in a four-way Democratic primary. Conventional wisdom holds that Vallone and Hevesi, two moderates from Queens, are splitting support. But our hypothetical three-way matchups show Green benefits if Hevesi, Vallone or Ferrer drop out," Carroll said.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201
1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rudolph Giuliani is handling his job as Mayor?
                    Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Approve 50% 86% 40% 56% 65% 25% 44% 57% 45%

Disapprove 40 12 50 32 27 64 42 35 44

DK/NA 10 2 11 12 8 11 14 8 11

2. How much attention have you been paying to the campaign for Mayor? A lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                    Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


A lot 19% 16% 21% 15% 17% 23% 18% 19% 19%

Some 36 35 35 38 40 27 35 37 35

Only a little 30 34 30 28 31 31 29 30 31

None at all 15 13 14 18 11 19 18 14 15

DK/NA - 1 - - - - - - -

3. Is your opinion of Chairman of the City University of New York Herman Badillo favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
                    Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 14% 19% 13% 15% 16% 10% 14% 17% 12%

Unfavorable 16 8 19 11 12 20 16 18 14

Mixed 21 20 20 21 22 18 23 19 21

Hvn't hrd enough 49 52 47 51 49 52 47 46 51

REFUSED - - 1 - - - - - 1

4. Is your opinion of media company owner Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 10% 19% 7% 12% 13% 6% 1% 13% 7%

Unfavorable 10 5 11 9 12 8 7 13 8

Mixed 15 20 15 14 16 12 14 15 15

Hvn't hrd enough 65 55 66 64 58 73 77 58 69

REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 1 1 1

5. Is your opinion of Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 40% 80% 28% 50% 55% 14% 36% 48% 34%

Unfavorable 34 9 43 26 22 59 35 29 38

Mixed 24 8 28 24 22 25 26 21 26

Hvn't hrd enough 1 2 1 - 1 1 2 1 1

REFUSED 1 2 - - - 1 1 - 1

5. Is your opinion of Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 32% 12% 40% 27% 20% 48% 47% 32% 32%

Unfavorable 11 32 7 10 16 4 5 15 8

Mixed 22 20 20 25 20 22 25 21 22

Hvn't hrd enough 34 36 32 37 42 25 23 31 37

REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 - 1 1

6. Is your opinion of City Controller Alan Hevesi favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 30% 23% 33% 28% 30% 27% 27% 30% 29%

Unfavorable 10 20 7 8 12 8 4 11 9

Mixed 25 27 24 28 25 28 23 28 24

Hvn't hrd enough 35 29 35 34 32 36 45 30 38

REFUSED 1 - 1 - 1 - 2 2 -

7. Is your opinion of Public Advocate Mark Green favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 42% 21% 51% 34% 38% 51% 41% 41% 42%

Unfavorable 12 37 7 12 19 4 7 16 9

Mixed 20 16 18 27 21 21 14 19 21

Hvn't hrd enough 26 26 24 27 23 23 38 24 27

REFUSED - - - - - 1 - - -

8. Is your opinion of City Council Speaker Peter Vallone favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                    Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 31% 30% 35% 27% 32% 31% 30% 34% 29%

Unfavorable 11 22 10 8 15 8 7 15 8

Mixed 25 22 27 23 24 29 23 24 27

Hvn't hrd enough 31 25 28 41 28 32 38 26 36

REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1 1



9. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Peter Vallone the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                    Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Vallone 58% 24% 74% 42% 52% 69% 65% 54% 61% Bloomberg 19 58 9 25 26 6 13 25 14

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 1 3 1 2 3 5 3 3 DK/NA 19 17 13 30 19 20 16 17 21



10. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Mark Green the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                    Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Green 62% 18% 79% 50% 54% 76% 70% 57% 65% Bloomberg 19 67 8 23 29 5 11 24 16

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 1 - 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 2 2 1 2 3 2 DK/NA 16 12 10 24 15 17 14 15 17



11. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Alan Hevesi the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                    Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Hevesi 57% 19% 75% 39% 52% 64% 67% 52% 61% Bloomberg 20 64 8 27 27 9 12 25 16

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 3 1 3 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 3 2 2 3 1 4 2 DK/NA 19 15 13 29 19 21 18 18 20



12. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                    Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Ferrer 52% 11% 69% 39% 40% 72% 67% 44% 58% Bloomberg 24 73 13 29 35 8 14 32 19

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 4 3 4 4 3 3 5 3 DK/NA 19 12 14 26 21 16 14 18 20



13. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic Primary for New York City Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer, Peter Vallone, Mark Green and Alan Hevesi for whom would you vote?

                    Registered Democrats ............
                    Tot   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Ferrer 17% 6% 20% 38% 16% 17% Vallone 13 16 11 15 13 14 Green 33 35 40 15 34 31 Hevesi 17 24 7 12 19 15

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 18 17 19 18 14 21



14. (If registered Democrat) Suppose Alan Hevesi was not running for Mayor, and the candidates in the Democratic primary were Fernando Ferrer, Peter Vallone, and Mark Green for whom would you vote?

                    Registered Democrats ............
                    Tot   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Ferrer 20% 8% 24% 43% 19% 21% Vallone 19 24 13 16 21 17 Green 42 47 44 25 43 41

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 1 1 3 2 DK/NA 16 17 16 15 12 19



15. (If registered Democrat) Suppose Peter Vallone was not running for Mayor, and the candidates in the Democratic primary were Fernando Ferrer, Mark Green, and Alan Hevesi for whom would you vote?

                    Registered Democrats ............
                    Tot   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Ferrer 20% 7% 25% 45% 18% 21% Green 40 44 44 23 40 40 Hevesi 20 27 13 13 23 18

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 1 - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 3 3 1 DK/NA 17 18 17 17 15 19



16. (If registered Democrat) Suppose Fernando Ferrer was not running for Mayor, and the candidates in the Democratic primary were Peter Vallone, Mark Green, and Alan Hevesi for whom would you vote?

                    Registered Democrats ............
                    Tot   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Vallone 17% 17% 16% 21% 18% 16% Green 43 40 52 35 45 42 Hevesi 19 21 12 21 19 18

SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 19 20 18 21 16 21