June 7, 2001 - Unknown Bloomberg Trails Dems In Mayoral Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Green Leads Dem Pack As Others Jostle For Runoff
Republican mayoral candidate Michael Bloomberg is largely unknown among New York City voters and trails any of the four Democratic candidates by margins of 2 -1 or more, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Possible general election matchups show:
  • City Council Speaker Peter Vallone over Bloomberg 61 - 18 percent, with 15 percent undecided;
  • Public Advocate Mark Green over Bloomberg 62 - 20 percent, with 12 percent undecided;
  • City Comptroller Alan Hevesi over Bloomberg 58 - 21 percent, with 16 percent undecided;
  • Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer over Bloomberg 55 - 25 percent, with 14 percent undecided.
From May 31 - June 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 808 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percent. The survey includes 504 registered Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percent.

"Will all those zillions of dollars Michael Bloomberg says he'll spend make him a major-league candidate? The tactic worked for Jon Corzine in New Jersey. So far, New York City voters make Bloomberg a long-shot challenger against any of the four Democrats," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

Green continues to lead the Democratic primary pack with 32 percent, while Ferrer, Hevesi and Vallone jostle for the second-place spot and a chance to face Green in a runoff: Ferrer has 19 percent, to 17 percent for Hevesi and 14 percent for Vallone, with 15 percent undecided.

If none of the candidates gets 40 percent of the Democratic Primary vote, the top two candidates move into a runoff. Possible runoff results show:
  • Green over Hevesi 53 - 29 percent with 16 percent undecided;
  • Green over Ferrer 54 - 32 percent with 11 percent undecided;
  • Green over Vallone 55 - 31 percent with 12 percent undecided;
  • Hevesi gets 43 percent to Ferrer's 41 percent, a tie, with 14 percent undecided;
  • Hevesi gets 40 percent to Vallone's 39 percent, a tie, with 18 percent undecided;
  • Ferrer over Vallone 44 - 38 percent with 16 percent undecided.
Mayor Rudolph Giuliani gets a 51 - 41 percent approval rating, compared to his 50 - 40 percent approval in a May 2 poll by the independent Quinnipiac University. By a 37 - 36 percent margin, New York City voters have a favorable opinion of Mayor Giuliani, with 25 percent mixed and 2 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. This is down from his 40 - 34 percent favorability rating May 2.
Favorability ratings for mayoral candidates are:
                   Favorable     Unfavorable     Mixed     No Opinion
Ferrer                33%            11%          24%          32%
Green                 40             14           23           24
Hevesi                30              9           25           35	
Vallone               32              9           31           28
Bloomberg             10             11           14           64
Herman Badillo        16             18           19           46

"The daily dose of headlines about his personal life has had almost no impact on Mayor Giuliani's stature with the voters," Carroll said. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rudolph Giuliani is handling his job as Mayor?
                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Approve 51% 88% 39% 59% 63% 28% 49% 57% 47% Disapprove 41 10 52 35 32 60 42 36 44 DK/NA 8 2 9 6 5 11 9 7 9

2. How much attention have you been paying to the campaign for Mayor? A lot, some, only a little, or none at all?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


A lot 21% 21% 19% 27% 22% 19% 19% 22% 20% Some 39 34 40 40 41 37 38 39 39 Only a little 28 33 29 22 27 32 27 28 28 None at all 12 12 12 10 10 11 15 10 13 DK/NA - - - - - 1 1 - -

3. Is your opinion of Chairman of the City University of New York Herman Badillo favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 16% 23% 14% 16% 16% 17% 14% 20% 13% Unfavorable 18 21 19 13 20 16 19 23 15 Mixed 19 15 20 24 20 18 17 17 21 Hvn't hrd enough 46 40 47 46 43 48 51 39 50 REFUSED 1 1 - 2 1 1 - 1 1

4. Is your opinion of media company owner Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 10% 24% 5% 15% 14% 6% 6% 14% 8% Unfavorable 11 3 14 8 14 10 8 13 10 Mixed 14 11 16 13 14 15 15 16 13 Hvn't hrd enough 64 61 65 62 58 68 72 57 69 REFUSED 1 - - 2 1 1 - 1 -

5. Is your opinion of Mayor Rudolph Giuliani favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 37% 78% 27% 39% 47% 17% 31% 42% 33% Unfavorable 36 9 45 30 27 55 36 34 37 Mixed 25 11 26 28 25 24 31 21 28 Hvn't hrd enough 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 2 1 REFUSED 1 - - 2 1 1 - 1 1

6. Is your opinion of Reverend Al Sharpton favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 21% 6% 25% 19% 6% 50% 26% 21% 21% Unfavorable 46 75 38 52 67 12 36 48 45 Mixed 27 15 32 24 23 33 29 26 28 Hvn't hrd enough 4 4 3 4 2 4 8 4 4 REFUSED 1 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 1

7. Is your opinion of Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 33% 14% 39% 34% 22% 43% 56% 34% 32% Unfavorable 11 27 7 10 14 6 10 14 9 Mixed 24 20 24 24 25 23 19 22 26 Hvn't hrd enough 32 38 30 32 39 28 15 29 34 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 - 1 -

8. Is your opinion of City Controller Alan Hevesi favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 30% 21% 33% 30% 36% 32% 13% 30% 31% Unfavorable 9 18 7 9 9 8 10 12 7 Mixed 25 28 23 30 26 22 26 29 23 Hvn't hrd enough 35 32 37 31 28 38 51 29 39 REFUSED - 1 - 1 1 - - 1 -

9. Is your opinion of Public Advocate Mark Green favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 40% 18% 45% 36% 36% 53% 31% 34% 44% Unfavorable 14 36 8 13 19 5 14 19 10 Mixed 23 19 20 33 26 19 19 24 22 Hvn't hrd enough 24 28 26 17 19 23 37 23 24 REFUSED - - - 1 - - - - -

10. Is your opinion of City Council Speaker Peter Vallone favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Favorable 32% 31% 31% 34% 33% 30% 28% 34% 30% Unfavorable 9 20 7 7 10 8 8 13 6 Mixed 31 22 32 34 31 31 33 28 33 Hvn't hrd enough 28 27 30 24 26 30 31 23 31 REFUSED 1 - - 1 1 1 - 1 -



11. If the election for Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were (Peter Vallone/Mark Green/Alan Hevesi/Fernando Ferrer) the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot   Rep   Dem   Ind   Wht   Blk   Hisp  Men   Wom


Vallone 61% 24% 76% 50% 54% 76% 62% 58% 62% Bloomberg 18 58 6 25 24 7 14 24 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 2 1 4 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 3 3 4 3 3 4 4 3 DK/NA 15 14 12 19 16 12 17 12 17

Green 62% 17% 79% 51% 53% 80% 64% 57% 66% Bloomberg 20 67 8 24 30 4 13 29 15 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 2 2 2 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 3 5 5 2 6 5 4 DK/NA 12 11 9 17 11 11 16 9 14

Hevesi 58% 13% 74% 51% 54% 67% 57% 53% 61% Bloomberg 21 68 8 24 27 11 17 28 16 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 - 2 4 3 2 2 3 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 3 2 2 3 4 3 3 DK/NA 16 16 13 18 14 17 19 13 17

Ferrer 55% 10% 72% 47% 41% 69% 84% 52% 58% Bloomberg 25 69 12 30 37 12 6 32 20 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 1 3 1 4 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 5 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 DK/NA 14 16 12 16 17 11 7 11 16

15. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic Primary for New York City Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer, Peter Vallone, Mark Green and Alan Hevesi for whom would you vote?

                          Registered Democrats .....................


Tot Wht Blk Hisp Men Wom

Ferrer 19% 7% 22% 52% 20% 19% Vallone 14 19 10 8 15 14 Green 32 29 44 20 35 31 Hevesi 17 24 11 6 16 18

SMONE ELSE (VOL) 1 2 2 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE (VOL) 1 - 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 15 19 10 13 13 16



16. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic mayoral primary runoff election was between (Candidate A) and (Candidate B) for whom would you vote?

                          Registered Democrats .....................


Tot Wht Blk Hisp Men Wom

Ferrer 41% 25% 44% 77% 45% 38% Hevesi 43 58 36 16 41 45 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 3 1 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 2 1 - 1 1 DK/NA 14 14 17 6 12 15

Ferrer 32% 22% 31% 63% 35% 30% Green 54 58 61 28 54 54 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 - 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 - 3 1 DK/NA 11 15 7 9 8 13

Ferrer 44% 28% 52% 73% 48% 42% Vallone 38 49 34 17 38 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 - 1 2 DK/NA 16 22 10 10 12 17

Green 53% 42% 63% 61% 55% 51% Hevesi 29 38 21 24 32 28 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 - - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 2 1 DK/NA 16 18 15 13 11 19

Green 55% 46% 68% 51% 56% 55% Vallone 31 38 20 34 34 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - - - 1 1 0 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 1 DK/NA 12 15 10 12 8 15

Hevesi 40% 47% 37% 31% 39% 41% Vallone 39 34 40 51 45 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 DK/NA 18 17 20 14 15 20



22. (If registered Democrat) If Rudolph Giuliani endorsed a candidate in the Democratic primary for Mayor, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate in the Democratic primary, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it effect your vote in the Democratic primary?

                          Registered Democrats .....................


Tot Wht Blk Hisp Men Wom

More likely 14% 15% 9% 18% 14% 13% Less likely 22 15 31 24 20 23 No effect 62 69 55 53 64 60 DK/NA 3 1 4 5 2 3



23. (If registered Democrat) If Al Sharpton endorsed a candidate in the Democratic primary for Mayor, would that make you more likely to vote for that candidate in the Democratic primary, less likely to vote for that candidate, or wouldn't it effect your vote in the Democratic primary?

                          Registered Democrats .....................


Tot Wht Blk Hisp Men Wom

More likely 17% 6% 36% 17% 19% 17% Less likely 24 39 8 12 23 24 No effect 56 54 53 64 57 55 DK/NA 3 1 3 7 2 4