September 4, 2001 - Ferrer, Green Lead Among Likely Dem Voters, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Half Say They Might Change Their Mind
Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer has broken out of the pack in the New York City mayoral race and now shares the lead with Public Advocate Mark Green among likely Democratic primary voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Among likely Democratic voters:
  • Ferrer gets 28 percent;
  • Green gets 26 percent;
  • City Council Speaker Peter Vallone gets 15 percent;
  • Comptroller Alan Hevesi gets 15 percent;
  • 14 percent remain undecided.
Among these likely voters, 53 percent say they might change their mind before the September 11 primary election, while 46 percent say their mind is made up.

From August 27 - September 3, Quinnipiac University surveyed 303 New York City likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.6 percent.

"For months, our polls have shown the Democratic primary probably would involve a runoff between Public Advocate Mark Green and one of the other guys," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Now it looks as if Bronx Borough President Fernando Ferrer is `the other guy,'" Carroll added.

By a 45 - 17 percent margin, New York City likely Democratic primary voters have a favorable opinion of Ferrer, with 20 percent mixed and 17 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. Favorability ratings among other Democratic candidates are:
                    Favorable     Unfavorable     Mixed     No Opinion
Green                  50%           15%           21%          13%
Hevesi                 30            19            30           22
Vallone                34            15            28           22


"Like Green, Vallone and Hevesi, Ferrer has been a player on the New York City political stage for years," Carroll said. "But Ferrer has been largely unknown outside of The Bronx, so he is the closest thing to a fresh face in this Democratic race.

"Whatever the reason, as voters finally focus on this long-running mayoral race, we see a sudden interest in Ferrer."

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201
2. Is your opinion of Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                 Likely Democratic
                 Primary Voters


Favorable 45%

Unfavorable 17

Mixed 20

Hvn't hrd enough 17

REFUSED 1

3. Is your opinion of Alan Hevesi favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                 Likely Democratic
                 Primary Voters


Favorable 30%

Unfavorable 19

Mixed 30

Hvn't hrd enough 22

REFUSED -

4. Is your opinion of Mark Green favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                 Likely Democratic
                 Primary Voters


Favorable 50%

Unfavorable 15

Mixed 21

Hvn't hrd enough 13

REFUSED 1

5. Is your opinion of Peter Vallone favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                 Likely Democratic
                 Primary Voters


Favorable 34%

Unfavorable 15

Mixed 28

Hvn't hrd enough 22

REFUSED 1



6. If the Democratic Primary for New York City Mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer, Peter Vallone, Mark Green and Alan Hevesi for whom would you vote?

                 Likely Democratic
                 Primary Voters


Ferrer 28%

Vallone 15

Green 26

Hevesi 15

SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1

DK/NA 14

8. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                 Likely Democratic
                 Primary Voters


Made up 46%

Might change 53

DK/NA 1