January 19, 2005 - Bloomberg Ties Ferrer, Tops Other Dems Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Mayor's Scores With Blacks, Hispanics Improve
New York City Mayor Michael Bloomberg and Fernando Ferrer, the leading Democratic challenger in this year’s mayoral race, are tied 43 – 43 percent among New York City voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 45 – 40 percent Ferrer lead in a November 10, 2004, poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, a lead which had been constant through months of polling.

In this latest survey, Mayor Bloomberg tops other Democratic challengers:

• 43 – 38 percent over Council Speaker Gifford Miller;

• 44 – 39 percent over Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields:

• 43 – 36 percent over U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner;

• 46 – 31 percent over Council member Charles Barron.

In the matchup with Ferrer, white voters back the Mayor 57 – 30 percent, as black voters back Ferrer 57 – 25 percent and Hispanic voters back Ferrer 57 – 29 percent.

“No one beats Mayor Bloomberg – today. The Mayor has closed a five-point gap to tie his principal challenger, Fernando Ferrer, and starts his re-election year with a comfortable lead over other Democratic contenders,” said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

“Let’s see what 10 months of campaigning – and spending – do to the numbers.”

“Mayor Bloomberg’s decision to skip President Bush’s inauguration should not cause him much pain among New York City voters who give the President a big negative 27 – 68 percent approval,” Carroll added.

When Democratic voters are asked to pick a challenger to Mayor Bloomberg, Ferrer leads with 31 percent, followed by undecided with 24 percent, Fields with 15 percent, Miller with 12 percent, Weiner with 10 percent and Barron with 5 percent.

New York City voters give Bloomberg a 50 – 37 percent approval rating, compared to 49 – 39 percent in a November 10, 2004, Quinnipiac University poll. Ethnic breakdowns show:

• White voter approval went from 57 – 31 percent to 60 – 30 percent;

• Black voter approval went from a negative 37 – 46 percent to a 39 – 42 percent near-split;

• Hispanic voter approval went from a negative 41 – 46 percent to 42 – 44 percent.

New York City public schools are better since Bloomberg became Mayor, 24 percent of voters say, as 19 percent say schools are worse and 45 percent see no change.

• Of those who say schools are better, 45 percent say Bloomberg is “mostly responsible” and 44 percent say he’s “somewhat responsible.”

• Of those who say schools are worse, 46 percent say Bloomberg is “mostly responsible” and 39 percent say he’s “somewhat responsible.”

“New Yorkers look at the schools after three years under Bloomberg and almost half of them see status quo. Those who think the schools have improved give the Mayor the credit; those who think schools got worse give him the blame,” Carroll said.

From January 11 – 17, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,027 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Jan 19, 2005 50 37 13 Nov 10, 2004 49 39 12 Aug 26, 2004 44 42 14 Jul 20, 2004 49 39 12 Jun 9, 2004 50 38 12 Mar 31, 2004 47 41 12 Feb 4, 2004 44 45 11 Nov 25, 2003 37 51 13 Oct 22, 2003 42 47 12 Sep 9, 2003 38 52 11 Jul 2, 2003 31 60 8 May 7, 2003 32 56 12 Feb 26, 2003 48 41 11 Nov 21, 2002 41 46 13 Jul 18, 2002 57 23 19 Mar 27, 2002 62 16 22 Feb 6, 2002 65 6 29



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA
                                        
Jan 19, 2005            27      68       5
Nov 10, 2004            28      68       4
Aug 26, 2004            25      70       5
Jul 20, 2004            24      72       4
Jun 10, 2004            24      72       5
Feb 4, 2004             31      64       5
Nov 25, 2003            31      64       5
Sep 10, 2003            30      64       6
May 7, 2003             44      50       6
Mar 28, 2002            64      28       8
Feb 6, 2002             68      23       9




TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Jan 19, 2005 65 13 22 Nov 10, 2004 62 17 21 Aug 26, 2004 63 17 20 Jul 20, 2004 61 21 18 Jun 9, 2004 67 16 17 Mar 31, 2004 67 16 17 Feb 4&5, 2004 65 16 19 Nov 25, 2003 69 15 16 Jul 3, 2003 63 24 13 May 7, 2003 68 15 17 Feb 26, 2003 68 18 14



TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                        Very    Smwht   Smwht   Very
                        sat     sat     dis     dis     DK/NA
                                                        
Jan 19, 2005            10      50      24      14       1
Nov 10, 2004             8      50      26      15       1
Jul 20, 2004             7      49      26      17       1
Jun 9, 2004              9      46      25      18       1
Mar 31, 2004             9      48      26      16       1
Feb 4, 2004              8      47      27      18       1
Nov 25, 2003             5      40      30      24       1 
Oct 22, 2003             8      43      31      18       1
Sep 9, 2003              5      37      32      25       2
Jul 2, 2003              7      23      32      38       1 
May 7, 2003              3      30      34      31       2
Feb 28, 2003             6      43      32      17       2
Nov 21, 2002             5      39      34      20       2
Jul 18, 2002             9      55      24       9       3
Mar 28, 2002            15      56      19       7       2
Aug 2, 2000             20      46      22      11       1
Jun 15, 2000            20      46      22      10       2
Apr 19, 2000            18      45      20      17       1
Apr 8, 1999             16      47      25      12       1
Feb 17, 1999            17      46      22      14       1
Nov 18, 1998            23      51      17       8       1
Feb 11, 1998            18      58      18       5       1
Oct 29, 1997            12      58      19      10       1
Oct 1, 1997             15      53      22       9       1
Mar 27, 1997            11      54      22      12       1
Feb 11, 1997            11      54      24      11       1
Nov 19, 1996             8      53      25      13       1




TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Barron the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* "Suppose the general election for mayor. . .")

                                        SMONE   WDN'T
                        CB      MB      ELSE    VOTE   DK/NA
                                                       
Jan 19, 2005            31      46       1       1     21
Nov 10, 2004            32      42       1       2     23
Jul 20, 2004            31      43       2       2     22
Jun 9, 2004             34      42       2       2     20 
Mar 31, 2004*           34      41       2       2     20
Feb 4, 2004*            32      43       2       4     19




TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* "Suppose the general election for mayor. . .")

                                        SMONE   WDN'T
                        FF      MB      ELSE    VOTE   DK/NA
                        
Jan 19, 2005            43      43       1       2     12
Nov 10, 2004            45      40       1       1     13
Jul 20, 2004            46      39       1       2     11
Jun 9, 2004             45      39       2       1     12
Mar 31, 2004*           45      41       1       2     11
Feb 4, 2004*            46      39       1       3     11
Nov 25, 2003            51      33       3       3     10




TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were C. Virginia Fields the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* "Suppose the general election for mayor. . .")

                                        SMONE   WDN'T
                        VF      MB      ELSE    VOTE   DK/NA
                        
Jan 19, 2005            39      44       1       2     15
Nov 10, 2004            38      42       1       2     18
Jul 20, 2004            38      42       1       2     17
Jun 9, 2004             39      43       1       2     15
Mar 31, 2004*           39      41       2       2     16




TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* "Suppose the general election for mayor. . .")

                                        SMONE   WDN'T
                        GM      MB      ELSE    VOTE   DK/NA
                        
Jan 19, 2005            38      43       1       1     16
Nov 10, 2004            36      42       2       2     19
Jul 20, 2004            37      39       2       2     20
Jun 9, 2004             38      40       2       2     18
Mar 31, 2004*           38      41       2       2     17
Feb 4, 2004*            37      39       1       4     18
Nov 25, 2003            41      33       5       2     19




TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Anthony Weiner the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* "Suppose the general election for mayor. . .")

                                        SMONE   WDN'T
                        AW      MB      ELSE    VOTE   DK/NA


Jan 19, 2005 36 43 1 2 19 Nov 10, 2004 35 40 1 3 21 Jul 20, 2004 34 40 2 2 21 Jun 9, 2004 37 42 2 2 18 Mar 31, 2004* 36 40 2 2 20 Feb 4, 2004* 34 40 2 4 20



TREND: (If registered Democrat)If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields, Charles Barron and Anthony Weiner, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)
                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
                        Jan 19  Nov 10
                        2005    2004
                                
Miller                  12       8 
Ferrer                  31      28 
Fields                  15      14 
Barron                   5       3 
Weiner                  10       8 
Thompson                na       9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          1       1 
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         2       2 
DK/NA                   24      27 




1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Approve 50% 65% 45% 52% 60% 39% 42% Disapprove 37 26 40 38 30 42 44 DK/NA 13 8 15 10 10 19 14

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Approve 48% 49% 59% 45% 46% 54% 46% Disapprove 40 36 26 45 43 36 38 DK/NA 12 15 14 10 11 10 15



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Approve 27% 77% 10% 29% 36% 14% 24% Disapprove 68 18 86 65 59 79 73 DK/NA 5 5 4 7 5 7 3

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Approve 24% 29% 19% 27% 56% 32% 23% Disapprove 72 65 78 66 41 64 72 DK/NA 4 6 3 7 3 5 5



3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Ray Kelly is handling his job as Police Commissioner?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Approve 65% 73% 63% 63% 72% 56% 61% Disapprove 13 9 12 17 8 19 17 DK/NA 22 17 24 20 21 25 22

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Approve 68% 57% 60% 71% 82% 70% 61% Disapprove 12 16 13 12 9 13 13 DK/NA 20 27 26 16 9 17 26



4. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Miller 38% 16% 51% 30% 30% 47% 44% Bloomberg 43 73 32 50 53 32 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 1 1 4 DK/NA 16 10 15 18 16 20 14

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Miller 46% 37% 36% 39% 32% 34% 42% Bloomberg 44 42 44 43 52 51 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 - - - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 2 - 1 2 DK/NA 10 18 18 16 16 14 18



5. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Ferrer 43% 18% 54% 38% 30% 57% 57% Bloomberg 43 73 32 46 57 25 29 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 1 1 1 DK/NA 12 7 11 13 11 16 11

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Ferrer 54% 42% 40% 44% 32% 41% 45% Bloomberg 34 41 44 45 57 46 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 - - 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 1 1 2 DK/NA 10 14 13 9 9 11 13



6. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Barron the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Barron 31% 14% 40% 24% 21% 47% 32% Bloomberg 46 75 36 52 57 31 41 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 - 2 1 1 - 2 DK/NA 21 10 21 22 20 22 23

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Barron 33% 34% 23% 32% 29% 27% 33% Bloomberg 48 43 48 45 56 53 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 1 1 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 1 2 - 1 2 DK/NA 18 20 27 20 15 18 23



7. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Anthony Weiner the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Weiner 36% 14% 47% 27% 30% 46% 36% Bloomberg 43 74 32 47 51 32 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 1 2 3 DK/NA 19 11 18 23 17 20 23

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Weiner 43% 36% 29% 37% 32% 31% 40% Bloomberg 40 41 46 42 48 50 36 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 2 1 - 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 2 2 2 1 2 2 DK/NA 15 20 22 18 18 17 21



8. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were C. Virginia Fields the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Fields 39% 15% 52% 28% 28% 59% 40% Bloomberg 44 73 33 50 54 25 43 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 1 2 2 DK/NA 15 10 13 18 16 15 15

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Fields 45% 39% 39% 36% 35% 32% 44% Bloomberg 44 42 44 45 50 53 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - 2 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 2 - 1 2 DK/NA 9 17 16 16 15 13 17



9. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields, Charles Barron and Anthony Weiner for whom would you vote?

                        Reg
                        Dem


Miller 12% Ferrer 31 Fields 15 Barron 5 Weiner 10 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 DK/NA 24



10. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York City today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Very satisfied 10% 22% 8% 9% 14% 7% 10% Smwht satisfied 50 52 49 50 58 36 47 Smwht dissatisfied 24 13 29 19 20 37 23 Very dissatisfied 14 11 13 19 7 19 17 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 - 3

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Very satisfied 7% 10% 13% 9% 12% 11% 10% Smwht satisfied 50 46 56 47 52 54 46 Smwht dissatisfied 24 26 20 27 20 20 27 Very dissatisfied 18 15 9 15 15 13 15 DK/NA 1 2 2 1 - 2 1



11. In deciding how to vote in the election for Mayor this November, how important will Mayor Bloomberg's handling of the public schools be to you -- very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Very important 69% 57% 73% 67% 60% 82% 76% Somewhat important 19 25 17 18 27 7 13 Not too important 6 7 5 8 7 5 5 Not imprtnt at all 5 9 3 6 5 3 4 DK/NA 2 2 2 1 1 2 2

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Very important 70% 72% 66% 71% 56% 65% 73% Somewhat important 16 15 24 17 32 22 17 Not too important 6 6 6 6 4 7 5 Not imprtnt at all 7 4 4 4 7 5 4 DK/NA 1 3 1 2 1 1 2



12. In deciding how to vote in the election for Mayor this November, how important will Mayor Bloomberg's handling of taxes be to you -- very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Very important 66% 68% 63% 66% 62% 73% 67% Somewhat important 25 24 27 24 30 19 20 Not too important 5 5 6 6 6 3 7 Not imprtnt at all 2 1 2 3 2 3 3 DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 2 2

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Very important 64% 66% 62% 69% 73% 62% 69% Somewhat important 21 26 31 22 19 26 25 Not too important 9 4 5 6 4 7 4 Not imprtnt at all 4 2 2 1 5 4 1 DK/NA 1 2 1 2 - 1 1



13. In deciding how to vote in the election for Mayor this November, how important will Mayor Bloomberg's handling of public safety be to you -- very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Very important 73% 76% 73% 71% 72% 75% 77% Somewhat important 20 20 21 21 23 17 16 Not too important 3 2 3 4 3 4 1 Not imprtnt at all 3 2 2 4 1 2 5 DK/NA 1 - 1 - - 2 1

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Very important 74% 73% 72% 72% 78% 68% 77% Somewhat important 18 21 21 22 14 24 17 Not too important 4 3 5 2 - 4 3 Not imprtnt at all 4 2 1 3 7 4 2 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 - 1



14. In deciding how to vote in the election for Mayor this November, how important is it to you that Mayor Bloomberg is a Republican - very important, somewhat important, not too important, or not important at all?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Very important 15% 25% 16% 7% 13% 16% 17% Somewhat important 20 26 23 12 21 19 19 Not too important 26 22 27 29 25 28 27 Not important at all 37 26 32 52 40 34 35 DK/NA 2 - 2 - 1 3 2

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Very important 15% 19% 9% 14% 23% 15% 15% Somewhat important 21 16 27 19 23 21 20 Not too important 28 27 26 26 13 25 27 Not important at all 34 35 37 39 41 38 36 DK/NA 2 3 1 1 - 1 2



15. Since Michael Bloomberg became mayor, do you think the public schools in New York City have gotten better, worse, or stayed about the same?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Gotten Better 24% 35% 22% 24% 24% 22% 29% Gotten Worse 19 12 23 16 17 21 20 About the same 45 42 43 48 42 49 44 DK/NA 11 11 12 12 16 8 7

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Gotten Better 26% 22% 23% 28% 21% 24% 25% Gotten Worse 22 21 14 21 22 17 22 About the same 47 46 44 43 48 50 40 DK/NA 6 12 19 8 9 9 13



15. (If 'better' q15)Do you think Michael Bloomberg is responsible for the public schools -- getting better, or is he not responsible? IF RESPONSIBLE ASK: Is he mostly responsible or only somewhat responsible?

                        Better q15


Mostly responsible 45% Somewhat responsible 44 Not responsible 8 DK/NA 4



15. (If 'worse' q15)Do you think Michael Bloomberg is responsible for the public schools -- getting worse, or is he not responsible? IF RESPONSIBLE ASK: Is he mostly responsible or only somewhat responsible?

                        Worse q15


Mostly responsible 46% Somewhat responsible 39 Not responsible 13 DK/NA 2



16. Since Michael Bloomberg became mayor, do you think public safety in New York City has gotten better, worse, or stayed about the same?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Gotten Better 36% 44% 36% 33% 36% 39% 37% Gotten Worse 7 8 7 7 5 7 10 About the same 55 48 55 59 57 49 52 DK/NA 2 - 2 2 2 5 1

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Gotten Better 41% 38% 33% 34% 35% 35% 37% Gotten Worse 10 4 6 10 8 6 8 About the same 46 56 58 54 58 57 52 DK/NA 2 2 3 2 - 1 3



16. (If 'better' q16)Do you think Michael Bloomberg is responsible for public safety -- getting better, or is he not responsible? IF RESPONSIBLE ASK: Is he mostly responsible or only somewhat responsible?

                        Better q16


Mostly responsible 33% Somewhat responsible 44 Not responsible 19 DK/NA 4



16. (If 'worse' q16)Do you think Michael Bloomberg is responsible for public safety -- getting worse, or is he not responsible? IF RESPONSIBLE ASK: Is he mostly responsible or only somewhat responsible? (* Number of respondents is 75 or less in this subgroup. Additional caution should be taken when interpreting the findings of this subgroup because of the larger margin of error.)

                        *Worse q16


Mostly responsible 37% Somewhat responsible 39 Not responsible 18 DK/NA 6



17. Since Michael Bloomberg became mayor, do you think the economy in New York City has gotten better, worse, or stayed about the same?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Gotten Better 29% 44% 24% 29% 36% 20% 23% Gotten Worse 31 18 34 33 26 37 34 About the same 36 35 38 34 35 38 39 DK/NA 4 3 3 4 4 4 3

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Gotten Better 24% 28% 35% 27% 28% 34% 24% Gotten Worse 34 34 22 33 35 27 35 About the same 39 33 37 38 36 37 36 DK/NA 3 4 5 2 1 2 5



17. (If 'better' q17)Do you think Michael Bloomberg is responsible for the economy -- getting better, or is he not responsible? IF RESPONSIBLE ASK: Is he mostly responsible or only somewhat responsible?

                        Better q17


Mostly responsible 24% Somewhat responsible 41 Not responsible 32 DK/NA 4



17b. (If 'worse' q17)Do you think Michael Bloomberg is responsible for the economy -- getting worse, or is he not responsible? IF RESPONSIBLE ASK: Is he mostly responsible or only somewhat responsible?

                        Worse q17


Mostly responsible 27% Somewhat responsible 32 Not responsible 38 DK/NA 3