March 30, 2005 - Fields Is Up, Ferrer Is Down Among Dems In Diallo Flap; Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Miller, Weiner Trail In Dem Primary Race
Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields has gained ground in the Democratic primary race for mayor and now trails Fernando Ferrer 36 - 21 percent among New York City voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner gets 11 percent, with 10 percent for Council Speaker Gifford Miller.

This is down from a 40 - 14 percent Ferrer lead over Fields in a March 2 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In that poll, Weiner and Miller each had 12 percent.

Of the 46 percent of New York City voters who say they have heard or read about Ferrer's comments concerning the death of Amadou Diallo, 41 percent say Ferrer's comments make them think less favorably of him. Among black voters who know of the Diallo remarks, 57 percent think less favorably of Ferrer.

"Could New York City be ready for its first woman Mayor? The poll numbers don't move dramatically, but all the moves look good for C. Virginia Fields," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The Manhattan Borough President moves up to a strong second in the Democratic primary, while Fernando Ferrer dips below that magic 40 percent that would prevent a runoff."

"Ferrer's comments that the death of Amadou Diallo was not a crime seem to have hurt him, especially among black voters," Carroll added.

New Yorkers give Mayor Michael Bloomberg a 46 - 41 percent approval rating, compared to 48 - 40 percent in the March 2 Quinnipiac University poll.

In a head-to-head matchup in the mayor's race, Ferrer tops Bloomberg 46 - 40 percent, compared to 47 - 39 percent March 2. Other matchups show:
  • Bloomberg and Miller are tied at 40 percent each;
  • The Mayor gets 42 percent to 41 percent for Fields, a tie;
  • Bloomberg tops Weiner 43 - 35 percent.
New York City voters are split on Bloomberg's plan to spend his own money in his reelection campaign:
  • 47 percent say it leaves the Mayor free of influence from lobbyists and other donors:
  • 45 percent say it gives him an unfair advantage and looks like he is trying to buy the election.
"It's a Democratic town. Mayor Mike trails Ferrer and he runs neck and neck with Borough President Fields and Speaker Miller," Carroll said. "But it's still early and Bloomberg has not yet begun to spend his millions.

"Speaking of millions, most voters in New Jersey say it's a good thing the billionaire Sen. Jon Corzine, a Democrat in a Democratic state, spends his own money to finance his run for Governor. New York City voters split when asked about their own billionaire - Democrat-turned Republican Mike Bloomberg - spending his own money to get reelected."

From March 21 - 28, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,371 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points. The survey includes 835 Democrats, with a margin of error of +/- 3.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?

                        App     Dis     DK/NA


Mar 30, 2005 46 41 12 Mar 2, 2005 48 40 12 Jan 19, 2005 50 37 13 Nov 10, 2004 49 39 12 Aug 26, 2004 44 42 14 Jul 20, 2004 49 39 12 Jun 9, 2004 50 38 12 Mar 31, 2004 47 41 12 Feb 4, 2004 44 45 11 Nov 25, 2003 37 51 13 Oct 22, 2003 42 47 12 Sep 9, 2003 38 52 11 Jul 2, 2003 31 60 8 May 7, 2003 32 56 12 Feb 26, 2003 48 41 11 Nov 21, 2002 41 46 13 Jul 18, 2002 57 23 19 Mar 27, 2002 62 16 22 Feb 6, 2002 65 6 29



TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                        App     Dis     DK/NA
                                        
Mar 30, 2005            27      69       5
Mar 2, 2005             28      68       4
Jan 19, 2005            27      68       5
Nov 10, 2004            28      68       4
Aug 26, 2004            25      70       5
Jul 20, 2004            24      72       4
Jun 10, 2004            24      72       5
Mar 31, 2004            29      66       6
Feb 4, 2004             31      64       5
Nov 25, 2003            31      64       5
Sep 10, 2003            30      64       6
May 7, 2003             44      50       6
Mar 28, 2002            64      28       8
Feb 6, 2002             68      23       9




TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* "Suppose the general election for mayor. . .")

                                        SMONE   WDN'T
                        GM      MB      ELSE    VOTE   DK/NA
                        
Mar 30, 2005            40      40       2       3     16
Mar 2, 2005             38      40       2       2     17
Jan 19, 2005            38      43       1       1     16
Nov 10, 2004            36      42       2       2     19
Jul 20, 2004            37      39       2       2     20
Jun 9, 2004             38      40       2       2     18
Mar 31, 2004*           38      41       2       2     17
Feb 4, 2004*            37      39       1       4     18
Nov 25, 2003*           41      33       5       2     19




TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* "Suppose the general election for mayor. . .")

                                        SMONE   WDN'T
                        FF      MB      ELSE    VOTE   DK/NA
                        
Mar 30, 2005            46      40       1       2     10
Mar 2, 2005             47      39       2       1     12
Jan 19, 2005            43      43       1       2     12
Nov 10, 2004            45      40       1       1     13
Jul 20, 2004            46      39       1       2     11
Jun 9, 2004             45      39       2       1     12
Mar 31, 2004*           45      41       1       2     11
Feb 4, 2004*            46      39       1       3     11
Nov 25, 2003*           51      33       3       3     10




TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Anthony Weiner the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* "Suppose the general election for mayor. . .")

                                        SMONE   WDN'T
                        AW      MB      ELSE    VOTE   DK/NA


Mar 30, 2005 35 43 2 3 17 Mar 2, 2005 36 41 2 3 19 Jan 19, 2005 36 43 1 2 19 Nov 10, 2004 35 40 1 3 21 Jul 20, 2004 34 40 2 2 21 Jun 9, 2004 37 42 2 2 18 Mar 31, 2004* 36 40 2 2 20 Feb 4, 2004* 34 40 2 4 20



TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were C. Virginia Fields the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? (* "Suppose the general election for mayor. . .")

                                        SMONE   WDN'T
                        VF      MB      ELSE    VOTE   DK/NA
                        
Mar 30, 2005            41      42       2       2     13
Mar 2, 2005             38      41       2       2     18
Jan 19, 2005            39      44       1       2     15
Nov 10, 2004            38      42       1       2     18
Jul 20, 2004            38      42       1       2     17
Jun 9, 2004             39      43       1       2     15
Mar 31, 2004*           39      41       2       2     16




TREND: (If registered Democrat)If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields, and Anthony Weiner, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..........
                        Mar 30  Mar 2   Jan 19  Nov 10
                        2005    2005    2005    2004


Miller 10 12 12 8 Ferrer 36 40 31 28 Fields 21 14 15 14 Barron na na 5 3 Weiner 11 12 10 8 Thompson na na na 9 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 DK/NA 19 20 24 27



1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Approve 46% 60% 43% 48% 55% 42% 30% Disapprove 41 31 45 38 34 47 52 DK/NA 12 9 12 13 11 11 18

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Approve 42% 42% 49% 49% 54% 49% 44% Disapprove 47 43 37 41 35 41 42 DK/NA 11 15 13 10 11 10 14



2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Approve 27% 78% 11% 31% 33% 14% 22% Disapprove 69 17 85 63 62 82 74 DK/NA 5 5 4 6 5 4 4

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Approve 26% 27% 15% 32% 42% 32% 22% Disapprove 71 69 82 61 49 65 72 DK/NA 3 4 3 7 9 3 6



3. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Miller 40% 16% 50% 32% 30% 49% 57% Bloomberg 40 68 32 45 50 32 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 2 2 2 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 4 3 3 1 DK/NA 16 10 14 17 15 15 14

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Miller 49% 43% 39% 34% 28% 36% 42% Bloomberg 31 36 38 48 54 43 38 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 3 3 1 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 3 2 3 3 4 2 DK/NA 14 16 19 13 13 14 17



4. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Ferrer 46% 21% 57% 38% 32% 56% 71% Bloomberg 40 70 29 49 53 30 19 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 2 2 3 2 1 DK/NA 10 5 10 10 11 12 6

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Ferrer 59% 49% 42% 41% 38% 47% 46% Bloomberg 27 36 40 48 54 43 37 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 2 2 1 - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 3 2 2 2 2 2 DK/NA 9 10 14 8 7 7 13



5. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Anthony Weiner the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Weiner 35% 16% 44% 28% 29% 42% 47% Bloomberg 43 68 36 49 51 35 32 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 2 3 1 2 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 2 4 3 1 3 DK/NA 17 12 17 17 16 20 14

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Weiner 37% 39% 30% 36% 27% 33% 37% Bloomberg 35 38 44 50 55 48 39 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 2 2 2 1 3 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 3 2 4 3 2 DK/NA 21 18 22 10 13 13 20



6. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were C. Virginia Fields the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Fields 41% 16% 52% 33% 26% 58% 58% Bloomberg 42 74 32 49 56 29 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 - 2 2 1 1 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 3 1 2 3 1 3 DK/NA 13 7 12 13 14 11 11

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Fields 46% 44% 40% 37% 25% 39% 42% Bloomberg 32 38 42 49 59 45 40 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 3 1 2 2 3 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 1 2 3 3 2 DK/NA 15 15 15 10 11 11 15



7. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields and Anthony Weiner for whom would you vote?

                        REG DEMOCRATS................
                        Tot     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Miller 10% 16% 5% 4% Ferrer 36 28 31 65 Fields 21 10 39 8 Weiner 11 17 8 5 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 3 4 1 - DK/NA 19 24 14 18

Brnx Kngs Man Qns Men Wom

Miller 3% 12% 15% 7% 13% 8% Ferrer 53 30 25 40 38 34 Fields 20 23 22 17 17 23 Weiner 5 16 7 14 12 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - - 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 2 4 2 3 DK/NA 14 17 29 15 17 21



10. Have you heard or read about an agreement between Fernando Ferrer and C. Virginia Fields not to attack each other during the Democratic primary campaign for Mayor?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Yes 24% 21% 27% 22% 26% 25% 18% No 75 78 73 77 73 75 81 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 - 1



11. (If 'heard' q10) Which comes closer to your view -- A) This is a good thing because it avoids a divisive Democratic primary. B) This is a bad thing because it excludes two other Democratic candidates, Gifford Miller and Anthony Wiener.

                        HEARD
                        Q10


A) Good thing 55% B) Bad thing 30 DK/NA 14



12. Have you heard or read anything about Fernando Ferrer's recent comments about the Amadou Diallo case?

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Yes 46% 43% 49% 43% 46% 50% 41% No 53 56 50 56 52 49 59 DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 -



13. (If 'heard' q12) Do Fernando Ferrer's recent comments about the Amadou Diallo case make you think more favorably of Ferrer, less favorably of Ferrer, or don't they affect your opinion of him?

                        HEARD Q12...........................................


Tot Rep Dem Ind Wht Blk Hisp

More favorably 8% 11% 8% 8% 8% 5% 14% Less favorably 41 37 42 41 37 57 24 No difference 45 43 44 45 48 35 53 DK/NA 7 8 6 6 7 4 10



14. As you may know, Mayor Michael Bloomberg spent millions of dollars of his own money to be elected Mayor and says he will do the same in this year's race for Mayor. Which comes closer to your point of view --

A) By financing his own campaigns Bloomberg is free from being beholden to lobbyists and other special interests who would otherwise finance his campaign. B) By financing his own campaigns Bloomberg has an unfair advantage and looks like he is trying to buy the election.

                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


A) Free from lobbyists/special interests 47% 67% 40% 53% 54% 43% 32%

B) Unfair advantage/buying election 45 26 52 40 39 50 59 DK/NA 8 7 8 7 7 7 8