August 18, 2005 - Ferrer Still Short Of 40% In NYC Dem Primary, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Three Others In Horse Race For Second Place
New York City likely Democratic primary voters give mayoral candidate Fernando Ferrer 33 percent, short of the 40 percent he needs to avoid a Democratic primary runoff, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

The other Democratic contenders are in a horse race for second place, and a chance to be in the runoff, with 17 percent each for Council Speaker Gifford Miller and Manhattan Borough President C. Virginia Fields and 16 percent for U.S. Rep. Anthony Weiner, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

Even among these likely Democratic voters, 16 percent remain undecided and 51 percent say they still might change their mind before the September 13 primary.

And 44 percent of these likely Democratic voters say they will vote for Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg if the candidate they support does not win the primary.

"Fernando Ferrer is on the lead horse, but still short of the brass ring - the 40 percent that assures him the Democratic mayoral nomination," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Gifford Miller, Virginia Fields and Anthony Weiner are jockeying for position, hoping to come in second and get into the runoff, if there is a runoff.

"None of the Democrats has a very strong base of support. Half of the voters for any candidate might change their mind, and a big chunk say they will vote for Mayor Bloomberg if their candidate is not the Democratic nominee."

A primary runoff helps the Democrats because it focuses attention on their candidates, 41 percent of voters say, but 45 percent say a divisive battle hurts the Democrats.

Bloomberg Approval

New York City registered voters give Mayor Bloomberg a 64 - 26 percent approval, just one point short of his all-time high in a February 6, 2002, Quinnipiac University poll, one month after he took office.

Likely Democratic primary voters give Bloomberg a higher favorability than any of the Democratic contenders, 50 - 25 percent with 23 percent mixed. This compares with:
  • 32 - 23 percent for Ferrer, with 31 percent mixed and 12 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion;
  • 21 - 13 percent for Miller, with 19 percent mixed and 46 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion;
  • 23 - 21 percent for Fields, with 17 percent mixed and 37 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion;
  • 24 - 8 percent for Weiner, with 13 percent mixed and 53 percent who don't know enough to form an opinion.
Public Advocate and Manhattan District Attorney

In the race for Public Advocate, incumbent Betsy Gotbaum gets 38 percent of Democratic primary voters, followed by 25 percent for Norman Siegal and 6 percent for Andrew Rasiej.

Incumbent Manhattan District Attorney Robert Morgenthau leads Leslie Crocker Snyder 61 - 16 percent among Manhattan likely Democratic voters.

"No doubt Public Advocate Betsy Gotbaum leads. The question is whether Norman Siegel can force her into a runoff," Carroll said.

"Robert Morgenthau, the DA for all ages, looks as if he'll be DA forever."

From August 9 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,601 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 489 likely Democratic primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research.

For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

1. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?

                        REGISTERED VOTERS...................................
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Wht     Blk     Hisp


Approve 64% 75% 61% 65% 70% 60% 55% Disapprove 26 18 29 24 22 28 33 DK/NA 10 6 10 11 8 12 12

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl Men Wom

Approve 57% 61% 69% 65% 65% 68% 60% Disapprove 31 30 20 25 24 23 29 DK/NA 12 8 11 10 10 9 11

TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Michael Bloomberg is handling his job as Mayor?

                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Aug 18  Jul 19  Jun 22  May 11  Mar 30  Feb 6   Jul 2
                        2005    2005    2005    2005    2005    2002    2003
                                                                
Approve                 64      60      55      47      46      65      31
Disapprove              26      30      36      41      41       6      60
DK/NA                   10      10      10      12      12      29       8




3. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields, and Anthony Weiner for whom would you vote? 3a. If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Miller, Ferrer, Fields, or Weiner? Includes Leaners.

                      LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS...................
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                   
Miller                17%     19%     15%     26%      7%     10%  
Ferrer                33      37      30      30      24      63   
Fields                17      15      18       7      37       4   
Weiner                16      15      17      23       9      12   
SMONE ELSE             1       -       2       2       2       1   
WLDN'T VOTE            -       -       -       -       -       -   
DK/NA                 16      14      18      14      21      10   


Brnx Kngs Man Qns Miller 3% 17% 23% 15% Ferrer 51 27 34 29 Fields 33 12 19 12 Weiner 8 23 8 21 SMONE ELSE 2 2 - 2 WLDN'T VOTE - - - - DK/NA 2 20 16 21



3. (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields, and Anthony Weiner for whom would you vote?

                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS......................
                        Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                
Miller                  10%     14%      8%     16%      5%      4%
Ferrer                  29      33      26      22      22      61 
Fields                  13      11      14       6      29       4 
Weiner                  11      13       9      19       5       4 
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       4       3       3       4       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       4       5       5       4       6 
DK/NA                   29      21      34      29      31      20 


Brnx Kngs Man Qns

Miller 3% 11% 14% 8% Ferrer 40 23 27 31 Fields 23 12 16 8 Weiner 4 16 6 13 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 4 2 4 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 5 4 5 5 DK/NA 23 30 29 32

TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the Democratic primary for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Gifford Miller, Fernando Ferrer, C. Virginia Fields, and Anthony Weiner, for whom would you vote? (na = not asked)
                                                                              
                        REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..................................
                        Aug 18  Jul 19  Jun 22  May 11  Mar 30  Mar 2   Jan 19
                        2005    2005    2005    2005    2005    2005    2005  
                                                                              
Miller                  10      15      12      11      10      12      12    
Ferrer                  29      33      31      27      36      40      31    
Fields                  13      16      19      23      21      14      15    
Barron                  na      na      na      na      na      na       5    
Weiner                  11      11      12      13      11      12      10    
Thompson                na      na      na      na      na      na      na    
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          3       2       2       1       1       1       1     
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       5       5       4       3       2       2    
DK/NA                   29      18      18      21      19      20      24    




3b. (If candidate choice q3) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the primary?

                      LIKELY VOTERS .....................
                              Candidate Choice Q3........
                      Tot     GM      FF      CVF     AW


Made up 48% 49% 50% 50% 41% Might change 51 51 50 50 55 DK/NA 1 - - - 4



4. If the candidate you support loses in the Democratic primary for Mayor, who would you vote for in the general election for Mayor in November -- Michael Bloomberg or the Democratic primary winner?

                      LIKELY VOTERS .....................
                              Candidate Choice Q3........
                      Tot     GM      FF      CVF     AW


Bloomberg 44% 37% 37% 33% 61% Primary winner 40 46 50 52 25 SMONE ELSE(VOL) - 1 - - - WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 1 1 2 4 - DK/NA 15 14 11 11 14



5. From what you know about the four Democratic candidates running for Mayor, would you say there are major differences, minor differences, or no differences at all between them on the issues?

                      LIKELY VOTERS ...............................
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                  
Major diff            27%     22%     31%     21%     31%     33% 
Minor diff            55      61      51      64      54      40  
No diff                8      11       6       6       8      17  
DK/NA                  9       5      12       8       8      10  


Brnx Kngs Man Qns

Major diff 36% 31% 18% 28% Minor diff 50 48 68 53 No diff 7 9 7 9 DK/NA 8 13 7 9



6. When the Democratic party nominates its candidate for mayor, which quality do you think should be more important? A) The candidate's ability to defeat Michael Bloomberg. -or- B) The candidate's views on the issues.

                      LIKELY VOTERS ...............................
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                  
A) Ability to win     12%     13%     11%     15%     10%     12% 
B) Views on issues    83      83      83      81      83      83  
DK/NA                  5       3       6       4       6       5  


Brnx Kngs Man Qns

A) Ability to win 13% 11% 12% 11% B) Views on issues 86 84 81 84 DK/NA 2 5 7 5



7. As you may know, a Democratic primary runoff for Mayor will be held between the top two candidates if no candidate wins 40 percent of the vote. Which comes closer to your point of view? A) A Democratic primary runoff would help the Democrats chances of beating Bloomberg because there will be more focus on the Democratic candidates. -or- B) A Democratic primary runoff would hurt the Democrats chances of beating Bloomberg because they are likely to end up in a divisive battle.

                      LIKELY VOTERS ...............................
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                  
A)Helps               41%     38%     43%     33%     47%     45% 
B)Hurts               45      51      41      53      40      43  
DK/NA                 14      12      16      14      14      12  


Brnx Kngs Man Qns

A)Helps 45% 42% 39% 37% B)Hurts 44 41 49 45 DK/NA 11 16 12 18



8. Is your opinion of Gifford Miller favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS ...............................
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                  
Favorable             21%     23%     19%     28%     14%     15% 
Unfavorable           13      17       9      12      12      19  
Mixed                 19      20      19      24      18       8  
Hvn't hrd enough      46      38      52      34      55      55  
REFUSED                1       2       1       2       -       3  


Brnx Kngs Man Qns

Favorable 10% 27% 23% 16% Unfavorable 12 12 13 15 Mixed 19 17 23 18 Hvn't hrd enough 57 44 40 50 REFUSED 2 - 2 1



9. Is your opinion of Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS ...............................
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                  
Favorable             32%     34%     30%     34%     21%     53% 
Unfavorable           23      22      23      24      27      11  
Mixed                 31      30      32      30      36      24  
Hvn't hrd enough      12      11      13      10      15      11  
REFUSED                1       2       1       2       1       1  


Brnx Kngs Man Qns

Favorable 36% 27% 35% 28% Unfavorable 23 22 24 24 Mixed 33 32 30 34 Hvn't hrd enough 8 19 10 11 REFUSED - - 1 3



10. Is your opinion of C. Virginia Fields favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about her?

                      LIKELY VOTERS ...............................
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                  
Favorable             23%     29%     19%     16%     36%     17% 
Unfavorable           21      21      21      26       8      26  
Mixed                 17      17      18      18      25       5  
Hvn't hrd enough      37      32      41      38      30      51  
REFUSED                1       1       1       1       1       1  


Brnx Kngs Man Qns

Favorable 24% 17% 31% 23% Unfavorable 19 22 22 19 Mixed 18 14 20 19 Hvn't hrd enough 35 47 25 37 REFUSED 4 - 1 2



11. Is your opinion of Anthony Weiner favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS ...............................
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                  
Favorable             24%     27%     23%     35%     14%     17% 
Unfavorable            8       9       6       6       8       7  
Mixed                 13      14      13      13      13      13  
Hvn't hrd enough      53      49      56      44      65      62  
REFUSED                1       1       1       2       1       -  


Brnx Kngs Man Qns

Favorable 12% 28% 17% 34% Unfavorable 8 7 9 6 Mixed 17 12 11 16 Hvn't hrd enough 63 51 61 43 REFUSED - - 2 2



12. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS ...............................
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                  
Favorable             50%     55%     46%     53%     48%     47% 
Unfavorable           25      19      29      20      24      36  
Mixed                 23      26      21      26      22      16  
Hvn't hrd enough       1       -       2       -       3       -  
REFUSED                1       -       2       1       2       1  


Brnx Kngs Man Qns

Favorable 39% 49% 51% 55% Unfavorable 40 26 19 20 Mixed 19 22 27 25 Hvn't hrd enough - 2 1 - REFUSED 3 1 2 -



13. Do you think Mayor Bloomberg favors Manhattan over the outer boroughs or gives all areas of the city equal attention?

                      LIKELY VOTERS ...............................
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                  
Favors Manhattan      49%     48%     50%     39%     50%     67% 
Equal attention       43      46      40      51      41      29  
DK/NA                  9       6      10       9       9       4  


Brnx Kngs Man Qns

Favors Manhattan 59% 54% 38% 50% Equal attention 34 34 50 48 DK/NA 7 13 11 2



14. (If registered Democrat)If the Democratic primary for Public Advocate were being held today and the candidates were Betsy Gotbaum, Norman Siegal, and Andrew Rasiej for whom would you vote? 14a. If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Gotbaum, Siegal, or Rasiej? Includes Leaners.

                      LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS...................
                      Tot     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk     Hisp
                                                                  
Gotbaum               38%     33%     43%     48%     38%     24% 
Siegal                25      31      20      25      22      19  
Rasiej                 6       7       6       5       6      12  
SMONE ELSE(VOL)        1       3       0       1       -       4  
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)       2       1       2       1       2       4  
DK/NA                 28      26      29      20      32      36  


Brnx Kngs Man Qns

Gotbaum 38% 36% 39% 41% Siegal 26 23 27 23 Rasiej 7 6 2 11 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 4 2 1 1 DK/NA 24 33 30 21



15. (If Manhattan Democrat)If the Democratic primary for Manhattan District Attorney were being held today and the candidates were Leslie Crocker Snyder and Robert Morgenthau, for whom would you vote? 15a. If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Snyder or Morgenthau? Includes Leaners.

                      LIKELY VOTERS 
                      WITH LEANERS
                      Tot


Snyder 16% Morgenthau 61 SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - DK/NA 23