September 21, 2005 - Bloomberg Has 14-Point Likely-Voter Lead Over Ferrer, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; But Democrat 'cares' More Than Mayor, Voters Say
New York City likely voters give Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg a 52 - 38 percent lead over Democratic challenger Fernando Ferrer, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Democrats back Ferrer 49 - 42 percent, while Republicans go with the Mayor 82 - 15 percent and independent voters back Bloomberg 69 - 24 percent.

Mayor Bloomberg gets 67 percent of white likely voters, 39 percent of blacks and 31 percent of Hispanics. Ferrer gets 28 percent of white likely voters, 46 percent of blacks and 57 percent of Hispanic voters.

In this first general election survey of likely voters, instead of registered voters, 9 percent are undecided and 84 percent of those who have made a choice say their mind is made up, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds.

By a 54 - 16 percent margin, New York City likely voters have a favorable opinion of Bloomberg, with 27 percent mixed.

Ferrer gets a 36 - 21 percent favorability, with 30 percent mixed and 11 percent who say they haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

"This is our first look at likely voters - as opposed to all those who are registered - and at the start of the general election campaign, it looks like a Bloomberg blow-out," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"New Yorkers know Mayor Mike and he gets a 'favorable' rating from more than half of them," Carroll added.

Because of Rev. Al Sharpton's endorsement of Ferrer, 7 percent of voters are more likely to vote for the Democrat, while 29 percent are less likely and 61 percent say the endorsement will not affect their vote.

By a 47 - 41 percent margin, voters say Bloomberg favors Manhattan over the other boroughs. "Rev. Al Sharpton's pat on the back loses Ferrer more votes than it gains. How about all those TV ads claiming Bloomberg favors all boroughs? A lot of New Yorkers are skeptical," Carroll said.
Looking at the Mayor's character traits, voters say:
  • 79 - 16 percent that Bloomberg has strong leadership qualities;
  • 54 - 37 percent that the Mayor cares about their needs and problems;
  • 71 - 18 percent that the incumbent is honest and trustworthy;
  • 69 - 25 percent that he understands the issues and problems facing New York.

Looking at Ferrer's character traits , voters say:
  • 46 - 34 percent that the challenger has strong leadership qualities;
  • 66 - 21 percent that Ferrer cares about their needs and problems;
  • 56 - 20 percent that he is honest and trustworthy;
  • 65 - 22 percent that he understands the issues and problems facing New York.

"Here's a plus for Ferrer: Far more than Bloomberg, people feel he cares about them. Here's a plus for Bloomberg: Far more than Ferrer, people rate him high on leadership," Carroll said. From September 14 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,504 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.5 percentage points. The survey includes 774 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points. The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

2. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, for whom would you vote? 2a. If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Ferrer or Bloomberg? * This table includes Leaners.

                      LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS.................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Ferrer 38% 15% 49% 24% 38% 38% Bloomberg 52 82 42 69 54 51 SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 2 1 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - - - - - DK/NA 9 3 9 6 7 10

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Ferrer 52% 40% 36% 34% 20% Bloomberg 36 47 58 57 71 SMONE ELSE - 1 1 2 - WLDN'T VOTE - - - - - DK/NA 12 11 5 7 9

Wht Blk Hisp

Ferrer 28% 46% 57% Bloomberg 67 39 31 SMONE ELSE - 2 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - - DK/NA 5 13 11



2b. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                      LIKELY VOTERS........
                              Cand Choice..
                      Tot     FF      MB   


Made up 84% 80% 87% Might change 15 18 13 DK/NA 1 1 -



3. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 54% 76% 47% 62% 55% 54% Unfavorable 16 11 18 11 16 16 Mixed 27 11 32 25 26 28 Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 1 1 2 1 REFUSED 1 1 1 - 1 2

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Favorable 53% 47% 57% 59% 63% Unfavorable 17 22 15 10 15 Mixed 24 29 26 30 19 Hvn't hrd enough 3 1 - 1 2 REFUSED 3 1 1 1 -

Wht Blk Hisp

Favorable 61% 48% 46% Unfavorable 13 18 19 Mixed 26 28 33 Hvn't hrd enough 1 3 1 REFUSED - 3 2



4. Is your opinion of Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 36% 18% 44% 23% 33% 37% Unfavorable 21 41 12 31 26 17 Mixed 30 21 32 33 30 30 Hvn't hrd enough 11 19 10 12 10 13 REFUSED 2 1 2 - 1 3

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Favorable 53% 37% 33% 29% 22% Unfavorable 13 17 20 27 36 Mixed 25 31 37 25 33 Hvn't hrd enough 4 14 8 18 9 REFUSED 5 2 2 2 -

Wht Blk Hisp

Favorable 23% 44% 61% Unfavorable 26 13 11 Mixed 37 28 16 Hvn't hrd enough 12 11 10 REFUSED 1 4 2



6. Would you say that Michael Bloomberg - has strong leadership qualities

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 79% 87% 76% 85% 78% 80% No 16 9 18 14 18 14 DK/NA 5 5 6 1 5 6

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Yes 73% 79% 81% 79% 88% No 18 15 16 15 12 DK/NA 9 6 4 5 -

Wht Blk Hisp

Yes 84% 71% 76% No 12 21 20 DK/NA 4 8 4



7. Would you say that Michael Bloomberg - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 54% 75% 46% 67% 55% 53% No 37 21 43 26 37 36 DK/NA 10 5 11 8 8 11

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Yes 50% 49% 57% 53% 70% No 39 41 35 34 27 DK/NA 11 10 8 12 4

Wht Blk Hisp

Yes 65% 45% 42% No 28 43 47 DK/NA 7 12 11



8. Would you say that Michael Bloomberg - is honest and trustworthy or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 71% 81% 68% 77% 73% 69% No 18 12 20 14 19 18 DK/NA 11 7 12 9 8 13

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Yes 68% 69% 69% 74% 80% No 14 20 20 18 16 DK/NA 19 10 11 8 5

Wht Blk Hisp

Yes 80% 61% 59% No 13 22 28 DK/NA 7 17 13



9. Would you say that Michael Bloomberg - understands the issues and problems facing New York City or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 69% 86% 64% 76% 70% 69% No 25 13 29 21 25 25 DK/NA 5 1 6 3 6 5

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Yes 66% 70% 68% 71% 76% No 26 27 26 23 24 DK/NA 8 3 6 6 -

Wht Blk Hisp

Yes 76% 64% 62% No 19 28 32 DK/NA 4 7 6



10. Would you say that Fernando Ferrer - has strong leadership qualities

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 46% 25% 53% 40% 45% 47% No 34 49 27 46 40 30 DK/NA 20 26 20 14 16 23

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Yes 64% 47% 43% 40% 35% No 21 31 36 41 41 DK/NA 15 22 21 19 24

Wht Blk Hisp

Yes 33% 56% 68% No 44 23 18 DK/NA 23 21 14



11. Would you say that Fernando Ferrer - cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 66% 50% 73% 62% 67% 66% No 21 32 16 28 23 20 DK/NA 12 18 11 10 9 14

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Yes 76% 72% 65% 56% 62% No 16 14 23 30 31 DK/NA 9 14 12 14 7

Wht Blk Hisp

Yes 60% 70% 81% No 28 16 11 DK/NA 11 14 8



12. Would you say that Fernando Ferrer - is honest and trustworthy or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 56% 32% 64% 51% 60% 54% No 20 31 15 24 21 19 DK/NA 24 37 21 24 19 28

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Yes 66% 56% 58% 50% 53% No 18 19 19 21 22 DK/NA 15 25 23 29 25

Wht Blk Hisp

Yes 55% 55% 68% No 21 21 15 DK/NA 24 25 18



13. Would you say that Fernando Ferrer - understands the issues and problems facing New York City or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 65% 40% 73% 62% 64% 66% No 22 44 15 28 24 21 DK/NA 13 16 12 10 12 13

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Yes 77% 68% 68% 54% 51% No 17 19 18 29 37 DK/NA 6 12 14 17 11

Wht Blk Hisp

Yes 56% 74% 79% No 30 14 11 DK/NA 14 12 9



17. As you may know, Rev. Al Sharpton endorsed Fernando Ferrer for Mayor. Does Sharpton's endorsement of Ferrer make you more likely to vote for Ferrer, less likely to vote for Ferrer, or doesn't it make a difference?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


More likely 7% 3% 10% 2% 6% 8% Less likely 29 54 21 35 35 24 No difference 61 40 65 62 56 64 DK/NA 3 3 3 2 2 4

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

More likely 17% 10% 4% 3% 2% Less likely 21 27 29 31 43 No difference 56 62 64 61 53 DK/NA 5 1 2 5 2

Wht Blk Hisp

More likely 3% 12% 14% Less likely 39 13 23 No difference 55 70 60 DK/NA 2 4 3



18. Do you think Mayor Bloomberg favors Manhattan over the outer boroughs or gives all areas of the city equal attention?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favors Manhattan 47% 33% 52% 43% 47% 47% Equal attention 41 61 35 46 43 40 DK/NA 12 6 13 11 10 13

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Favors Manhattan 55% 50% 36% 52% 39% Equal attention 33 39 43 43 57 DK/NA 12 11 21 6 4

Wht Blk Hisp

Favors Manhattan 41% 49% 58% Equal attention 48 34 33 DK/NA 11 16 9