October 12, 2005 - Bloomberg Jumps To 28-Point Lead Over Ferrer, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Mayor's Numbers Spiked After Subway Terror Alert
Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg has opened a 60 - 32 percent lead over Democratic challenger Fernando Ferrer among New York City likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Conservative candidate Thomas Ognibene gets 1 percent.

The Mayor's numbers spiked from a 19-point lead during the first three days of the survey to a 34-point lead after his announcement of the subway terrorism alert.

The Mayor leads 53 - 38 percent among black likely voters, and 72 - 21 percent among white likely voters, while Hispanic likely voters back Ferrer 55 - 40 percent.

This 60 - 32 percent lead compares to a 52 - 38 percent Bloomberg lead in a September 21 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Ognibene was not listed in that poll.

"Even in the first three nights of polling, when Mayor Bloomberg was being hammered for not participating in the Harlem debate, he was cruising along with a 19-point lead, " said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"After his dramatic announcement of a possible threat to the city's subway system, and coverage of Commander-in-Chief Bloomberg riding the subway, his numbers went through the roof.

"Now that the threat has been lifted, we'll see if the Mayor's numbers come back down to earth."

In this latest survey, 87 percent of Bloomberg supporters and 83 percent of Ferrer voters say their mind is made up.

By a 58 - 15 percent margin, New York City likely voters have a favorable opinion of Bloomberg, with 26 percent mixed.

Ferrer gets a 29 - 24 percent favorability, with 37 percent mixed and 9 percent who say they haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

For Ognibene, 78 percent of voters do not know enough to form an opinion.

"Ognibene? Who? Four fifths of likely voters hardly recognize him," Carroll said.

Bloomberg is tied too closely to President George W. Bush, 28 percent of New York City likely voters say, and 42 percent of all likely voters say they are less likely to vote for the Mayor because of his ties to the President, with 5 percent who are more likely to vote for Bloomberg and 52 percent who say it won't affect their vote.

Because of Ferrer's ties to the Bronx Democratic organization, 20 percent say they are more likely to vote for the Democrat, with 16 percent who are less likely and 62 percent who say it won't affect their vote.

"President Bush is a bit of a drag on Bloomberg. Ferrer's background in Bronx politics helps him a little, hurts a little and doesn't much matter to most voters," Carroll said.

From October 4 - 10, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,452 New York City registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points. The survey includes 725 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

2. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, Michael Bloomberg the Republican, and Thomas Ognibene the Conservative Party candidate for whom would you vote? If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Ferrer, Bloomberg or Ognibene? * This table includes leaners

                      LIKELY VOTERS & LEANERS....................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Ferrer 32% 5% 40% 27% 34% 30% Bloomberg 60 89 54 63 56 63 Ognibene 1 3 1 2 2 1 SMONE ELSE - - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE - - - - - - DK/NA 7 3 6 8 8 6

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Ferrer 43% 28% 33% 33% 18% Bloomberg 45 63 61 59 73 Ognibene 1 1 - 2 4 SMONE ELSE - - - - - WLDN'T VOTE - - - - - DK/NA 11 8 6 6 6

Wht Blk Hisp

Ferrer 21% 38% 55% Bloomberg 72 53 40 Ognibene 2 - 2 SMONE ELSE - - - WLDN'T VOTE - - - DK/NA 5 9 4

TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, Michael Bloomberg the Republican, and Thomas Ognibene, the Conservative Party candidate, for whom would you vote? If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Ferrer, Bloomberg or Ognibene? * This table includes leaners. n/a = not asked

                        LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS
                        Oct 12  Sep 21
                        2005    2005


Ferrer 32 38 Bloomberg 60 52 Ognibene 1 n/a SMONE ELSE - 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - DK/NA 7 9



2b. (If candidate choice q2) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                      LIKELY VOTERS......
                              Cand Choice
                      Tot     FF      MB 


Made up 86% 83% 87% Might change 14 14 13 DK/NA 1 2 -



3. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 58% 78% 55% 57% 57% 59% Unfavorable 15 7 16 12 16 13 Mixed 26 15 27 30 25 26 Hvn't hrd enough 1 - 1 - 1 1 REFUSED 1 - 1 1 - 1

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Favorable 45% 60% 57% 62% 63% Unfavorable 16 11 14 17 14 Mixed 38 28 25 19 22 Hvn't hrd enough 2 1 2 1 - REFUSED - - 1 1 1

Wht Blk Hisp

Favorable 65% 53% 42% Unfavorable 13 13 19 Mixed 21 32 34 Hvn't hrd enough - 1 4 REFUSED - 1 1

TREND: Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        LIKELY VOTERS ................
                        Oct 12  Sep 21  Nov 5   Oct 24
                        2005    2005    2001    2001


Favorable 58 54 39 35 Unfavorable 15 16 20 20 Mixed 26 27 30 28 Hvn't hrd enough 1 1 9 15 REFUSED 1 1 2 2



4. Is your opinion of Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 29% 8% 35% 24% 32% 26% Unfavorable 24 51 17 27 28 21 Mixed 37 28 38 42 29 43 Hvn't hrd enough 9 11 9 6 10 9 REFUSED 1 2 1 1 1 1

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Favorable 44% 25% 27% 31% 15% Unfavorable 14 26 25 22 36 Mixed 34 36 38 36 42 Hvn't hrd enough 7 11 9 9 5 REFUSED - 1 - 2 1

Wht Blk Hisp

Favorable 18% 38% 44% Unfavorable 34 15 15 Mixed 40 36 34 Hvn't hrd enough 7 10 7 REFUSED 1 1 -

TREND: Is your opinion of Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        LIKELY VOTERS
                        Oct 12  Sep 21
                        2005    2005


Favorable 29 36 Unfavorable 24 21 Mixed 37 30 Hvn't hrd enough 9 11 REFUSED 1 2



5. Is your opinion of Thomas Ognibene favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 5% 14% 2% 4% 7% 3% Unfavorable 11 3 12 13 14 9 Mixed 5 3 5 5 5 4 Hvn't hrd enough 78 80 80 73 72 83 REFUSED 1 - 1 5 2 1



20. Would you be more likely to describe the campaign for mayor as interesting or dull?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Interesting 43% 37% 48% 32% 39% 47% Dull 52 58 49 60 57 49 DK/NA 4 5 2 8 5 4

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Interesting 55% 40% 44% 43% 39% Dull 37 57 53 52 55 DK/NA 8 3 3 5 6

Wht Blk Hisp

Interesting 37% 52% 53% Dull 60 44 40 DK/NA 3 4 7



21. Does Fernando Ferrer's background in the Bronx Democratic organization make you more likely to vote for Ferrer, less likely to vote for Ferrer, or doesn't it make a difference?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


More likely 20% 2% 27% 16% 22% 19% Less likely 16 26 14 17 20 12 No difference 62 70 58 67 55 67 DK/NA 2 2 2 - 3 2

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

More likely 25% 16% 23% 23% 14% Less likely 15 15 21 13 16 No difference 57 67 54 64 67 DK/NA 3 3 2 - 3

Wht Blk Hisp

More likely 16% 22% 30% Less likely 21 13 10 No difference 61 64 57 DK/NA 2 1 3



22. Does Michael Bloomberg's relationship with President George W. Bush make you more likely to vote for Bloomberg, less likely to vote for Bloomberg, or doesn't it make a difference?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


More likely 5% 22% 1% 4% 6% 4% Less likely 42 6 53 35 42 42 No difference 52 71 45 62 51 52 DK/NA 2 1 1 - 1 2

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

More likely 9% 4% 5% 3% 8% Less likely 33 39 51 43 28 No difference 54 55 42 53 62 DK/NA 4 2 2 1 2

Wht Blk Hisp

More likely 7% 1% 2% Less likely 37 45 51 No difference 54 50 45 DK/NA 1 3 2



23. Do you think Michael Bloomberg is too closely tied to President Bush or not?

                      LIKELY VOTERS..............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Yes 28% 8% 35% 23% 29% 27% No 65 87 58 71 66 64 DK/NA 7 5 7 6 5 9

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Yes 34% 29% 32% 23% 18% No 58 64 62 68 78 DK/NA 8 7 6 9 4

Wht Blk Hisp

Yes 19% 36% 44% No 78 57 46 DK/NA 3 8 10