November 1, 2005 - Bloomberg Has 28-Point Lead In Home Stretch, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; No Shift In Post-Debate Voter Responses
Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg leads Democratic challenger Fernando Ferrer 59 - 31 percent among New York City likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Conservative candidate Thomas Ognibene gets 2 percent and 8 percent are undecided.

This compares to a 61 - 30 percent Bloomberg lead over Ferrer in an October 25 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

There was no shift in voter responses Sunday, after the first televised debate between Ferrer and Bloomberg.

In this latest survey, Bloomberg leads Ferrer 72 - 18 percent among white likely voters and 51 - 42 percent among black likely voters, while Hispanic likely voters back Ferrer 51 - 40 percent.

"Voters got a chance to see Mayor Bloomberg and Fernando Ferrer face-to-face on Sunday, but nothing much changed after their debate. Mayor Mike held onto his gargantuan lead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Based on history, the majority of the undecided tend to break for the challenger, but this still leaves the incumbent with a 20-plus lead."

By a 59 - 16 percent margin, New York City likely voters have a favorable opinion of Bloomberg, with 20 percent mixed.

Ferrer gets a 30 - 27 percent favorability, with 30 percent mixed and 10 percent who say they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

"Maybe it's Bloomberg's ubiquitous presence - and Ferrer's near absence - on paid TV, but voters have a favorable impression of Mayor Mike while Ferrer earns only a stand- off," Carroll said.

"Democrats seem to remember that Mayor Mike once was one of them (or suspect that, in his heart, he still is). Whatever the reason, 50 percent of them say they'll vote for the Republican mayor."

From October 24 - 30, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,384 New York City registered voters. The survey includes 742 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and nationwide as a public service and for research. For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201

1. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, Michael Bloomberg the Republican, and Thomas Ognibene the Conservative Party candidate, for whom would you vote? If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Ferrer, Bloomberg or Ognibene? ** This table includes leaners

                      LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS.................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Ferrer 31% 11% 42% 13% 30% 32% Bloomberg 59 82 50 72 62 56 Ognibene 2 5 1 3 2 2 SMONE ELSE 1 - 1 1 - 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - - - - - DK/NA 8 3 7 11 6 10

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Ferrer 43% 30% 28% 28% 30% Bloomberg 40 58 67 64 59 Ognibene 2 3 - - 5 SMONE ELSE - 1 - - 2 WLDN'T VOTE - - - - - DK/NA 15 9 5 7 3

Wht Blk Hisp

Ferrer 18% 42% 51% Bloomberg 72 51 40 Ognibene 2 - 2 SMONE ELSE 1 1 - WLDN'T VOTE - - - DK/NA 7 7 8

TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, Michael Bloomberg the Republican, and Thomas Ognibene the Conservative Party candidate, for whom would you vote? If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Ferrer, Bloomberg or Ognibene? * This table includes leaners

n/a = not asked

                        LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS....
                        Nov 1   Oct 25  Oct 12  Sep 21
                        2005    2005    2005    2005


Ferrer 31 30 32 38 Bloomberg 59 61 60 52 Ognibene 2 2 1 n/a SMONE ELSE 1 - - 1 WLDN'T VOTE - - - - DK/NA 8 7 7 9



1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?

                              Cand Choice.. 
                      Tot     FF      MB    


Made up 89% 87% 90% Might change 11 12 9 DK/NA 1 - 1



2. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS .............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 59% 77% 53% 75% 64% 56% Unfavorable 16 12 21 9 13 19 Mixed 20 11 21 13 20 19 Hvn't hrd enough 2 - 3 1 1 3 REFUSED 3 - 2 2 2 3

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Favorable 47% 58% 63% 64% 60% Unfavorable 21 16 14 15 19 Mixed 24 21 18 17 19 Hvn't hrd enough 4 1 2 2 1 REFUSED 3 3 3 2 1

Wht Blk Hisp

Favorable 69% 55% 46% Unfavorable 14 17 26 Mixed 15 25 15 Hvn't hrd enough - 2 7 REFUSED 2 1 7

TREND: Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.................................
                        Nov 1   Oct 25  Oct 12  Sep 21  Nov 5   Oct 24
                        2005    2005    2005    2005    2001    2001


Favorable 59 62 58 54 39 35 Unfavorable 16 11 15 16 20 20 Mixed 20 23 26 27 30 28 Hvn't hrd enough 2 3 1 1 9 15 REFUSED 3 2 1 1 2 2



3. Is your opinion of Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS .............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 30% 13% 38% 17% 27% 32% Unfavorable 27 53 19 37 31 24 Mixed 30 25 30 31 29 30 Hvn't hrd enough 10 7 11 11 11 10 REFUSED 3 2 2 3 2 4

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Favorable 43% 29% 27% 28% 20% Unfavorable 22 28 28 29 29 Mixed 30 29 30 28 37 Hvn't hrd enough 3 10 12 13 12 REFUSED 1 3 3 4 2

Wht Blk Hisp

Favorable 16% 35% 60% Unfavorable 36 22 14 Mixed 34 31 16 Hvn't hrd enough 12 10 6 REFUSED 3 1 4

TREND: Is your opinion of Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        LIKELY VOTERS ................
                        Nov 1   Oct 25  Oct 12  Sep 21
                        2005    2005    2005    2005


Favorable 30 30 29 36 Unfavorable 27 27 24 21 Mixed 30 34 37 30 Hvn't hrd enough 10 8 9 11 REFUSED 3 2 1 2



4. Is your opinion of Thomas Ognibene favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                      LIKELY VOTERS .............................
                      Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom


Favorable 6% 14% 4% 6% 7% 5% Unfavorable 11 5 12 10 14 8 Mixed 5 5 5 5 5 5 Hvn't hrd enough 77 75 78 77 72 81 REFUSED 2 2 1 2 2 2

Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl

Favorable 7% 4% 2% 8% 11% Unfavorable 10 8 15 9 12 Mixed 5 6 5 6 1 Hvn't hrd enough 76 80 76 75 73 REFUSED 2 1 1 2 3

Wht Blk Hisp

Favorable 8% 4% 5% Unfavorable 13 8 5 Mixed 4 4 4 Hvn't hrd enough 74 83 83 REFUSED 2 1 3

TREND: Is your opinion of Thomas Ognibene favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?

                        LIKELY VOTERS.........
                        Nov 1   Oct 25  Oct 12
                        2005    2005    2005


Favorable 6 5 5 Unfavorable 11 9 11 Mixed 5 6 5 Hvn't hrd enough 77 79 78 REFUSED 2 1 1