April 18, 2008 - Blacks Key As Clinton Or Obama Top Mccain In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Men Split In Clinton-Mccain Faceoff

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Black voter support is critical for Democratic presidential contenders in New York State, where Sen. Hillary Clinton tops Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican nominee, 49 - 37 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Illinois Sen. Barack Obama beats Sen. McCain 47 - 39 percent.

This compares to a 50 - 40 percent Clinton lead over McCain in a March 21 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. In that survey, Obama topped McCain 49 - 38 percent. A look at subgroups in the latest survey shows:
  • Clinton-McCain: White voters split with 45 percent for McCain and 42 percent for Clinton; blacks back Clinton 65 - 16 percent. Men split with 45 percent for Clinton and 44 percent for McCain; women back Clinton 53 - 31 percent.
  • Obama-McCain: White voters back McCain 48 - 38 percent, as blacks go with Obama 83 - 8 percent. Men support Obama 47 - 42 percent and women back the Democrat 48 - 35 percent.
"In presidential politics, New York shows the same ethnic split that we've seen in other states. Sen. Hillary Clinton or Sen. Barack Obama beat Sen. John McCain by double digits - but that's because of the loyalty of black voters. She splits the white vote with McCain. Obama loses it," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

New York State voters split 48 - 45 percent in their favorable/unfavorable opinion of Clinton. Obama gets a 50 - 31 percent favorability, with 46 - 36 percent for McCain.

Clinton's favorability is down from 53 - 40 percent March 21, and at her lowest level in New York State in more than a year. But voters approve 62 - 31 percent of the job she's doing as Senator.

The economy is the most important issue in deciding how they will vote in November, 44 percent of New York State voters say, with 24 percent who list the war in Iraq and 12 percent who list health care.

The single most important quality in a candidate is leadership, 29 percent, with 26 percent looking for someone who is trustworthy and 25 percent looking for competence.

Looking at the election issues:
  • 21 percent of voters say New York State's economy is "excellent" or "good," while 78 percent say the economy is "not so good" or "poor."
  • Voters say 69 - 26 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do. Fifty percent of voters say set a timetable for U.S. troop withdrawal, while 24 percent say keep U.S. troops in Iraq as long as needed and 23 percent say withdraw all troops as soon as possible.
  • It's the government's responsibility to make sure everyone in the U.S. has adequate health care, voters say 70 - 28 percent.
"The big issue? It's the economy, stupid," Carroll said.

"Sure, we're a true-blue state. But we divide by party on the big health-care issue. Should Washington guarantee health care for everyone? Democrats say yes 88 - 11 percent. Republicans say no 53 - 46 percent.

"And just for the record: New Yorkers still don't think much of President Bush or of the decision to go into Iraq."

From April 14 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,257 New York State voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.
1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Clinton             49%     10%     81%     40%     45%     53%     42%     65%
McCain              37      79      10      42      44      31      45      16
SMONE ELSE(VOL)      2       1       2       2       1       3       1       5
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)     4       3       2       4       4       3       3       5
DK/NA                9       7       5      13       7      11       9       8
 
                    UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                    Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Clinton             46%     43%     43%     58%     45%     50%     50%
McCain              37      42      41      27      43      40      35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)      2       1       2       3       1       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)     -       5       4       5       2       4       3
DK/NA               14       9      10       7       9       6      10
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Hillary Clinton the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                    Apr 18  Mar 21  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                    2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007
                            
Clinton             49      50      54      56      55      56
McCain              37      40      37      32      34      35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)      2       1       2       2       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)     4       2       3       4       2       2
DK/NA                9       6       5       7       8       6
 
 
2. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Obama               47%     13%     71%     46%     47%     48%     38%     83%
McCain              39      77      17      39      42      35      48       8
SMONE ELSE(VOL)      2       1       2       2       1       2       2       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)     3       3       3       5       3       3       4       1
DK/NA                9       6       9       9       7      11       9       7
 
                    UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                    Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Obama               46%     41%     42%     60%     38%     49%     48%
McCain              42      45      44      28      46      40      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)      1       2       2       2       1       -       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)     1       4       3       3       5       3       3
DK/NA               10       9       9       9       9       7       9
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                    Apr 18  Mar 21  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                    2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007
                            
Obama               47      49      47      48      47      46
McCain              39      38      39      33      36      35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)      2       2       3       3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)     3       3       4       4       3       3
DK/NA                9       8       8      12      12      14
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable           48%     16%     73%     41%     45%     52%     45%     53%
Unfavorable         45      78      21      51      51      40      49      41
Hvn't hrd enough     5       4       5       6       3       6       4       6
REFUSED              2       1       1       2       1       2       2       0
 
                    UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                    Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Favorable           48%     45%     46%     54%     44%     47%     49%
Unfavorable         47      49      48      40      47      46      45
Hvn't hrd enough     4       3       3       5       6       7       3
REFUSED              1       3       3       1       3       1       2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                    Apr 18  Mar 21  Dec 17  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                    2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
                            
Favorable           48      53      53      58      59      58      59
Unfavorable         45      40      34      37      34      35      35
Hvn't hrd enough     5       5       9       3       5       4       4
REFUSED              2       3       3       2       2       3       2
 
 
4. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable           50%     30%     60%     55%     49%     52%     46%     82%
Unfavorable         31      53      18      29      33      29      37       9
Hvn't hrd enough    18      15      21      14      17      18      16       9
REFUSED              1       1       1       2       1       1       2       -
 
                    UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                    Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Favorable           44%     46%     45%     60%     44%     54%     48%
Unfavorable         34      35      35      21      39      32      30
Hvn't hrd enough    20      18      18      18      16      14      20
REFUSED              2       2       2       1       1       -       2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                    
                    Apr 18  Mar 21  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                    2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007
                            
Favorable           50      56      54      48      48      44
Unfavorable         31      25      20      17      12       9
Hvn't hrd enough    18      17      24      33      38      46
REFUSED              1       2       3       2       1       1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable           46%     75%     26%     54%     51%     42%     55%     17%
Unfavorable         36      10      51      33      34      37      29      59
Hvn't hrd enough    15      13      19      11      13      18      15      16
REFUSED              3       2       4       2       2       3       2       9
 
                    UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                    Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Favorable           49%     51%     51%     38%     51%     49%     44%
Unfavorable         33      26      28      46      35      28      41
Hvn't hrd enough    18      20      19      14      11      22      12
REFUSED              1       3       3       3       3       1       4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                    
                    Apr 18  Mar 21  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                    2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007
                            
Favorable           46      49      49      40      47      48
Unfavorable         36      31      28      33      23      24
Hvn't hrd enough    15      18      20      25      27      26
REFUSED              3       3       3       2       2       2
 
 
9. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Approve             22%     53%      7%     18%     25%     20%     28%      4%
Disapprove          73      41      89      78      70      76      69      88
DK/NA                4       7       3       4       5       4       4       7
 
                    UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                    Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Approve             23%     25%     24%     18%     26%     23%     22%
Disapprove          75      71      72      75      72      72      74
DK/NA                2       4       4       6       2       5       4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also 82% on 10/2/01
                    
                                                            Highest Lowest
                                                            Approve Approve
                    Apr 18  Mar 21  Dec 17  Jun 20  Apr 5   Nov 14  Mar 21
                    2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2001*   2008
                            
Approve             22      21      22      24      26      82      21
Disapprove          73      74      73      71      72      15      74
DK/NA                4       4       5       5       3       3       4
 
 
17. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Terrorism            9%     17%      4%      8%     11%      7%     10%      5%
The war in Iraq     24      12      30      25      24      24      25      18
The economy         44      44      45      47      43      45      42      55
Illegal immigration  7      12       5       4       7       7       7       3
Health care         12      10      13      12      12      13      11      14
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)  2       3       1       2       2       3       2       2
DK/NA                2       2       3       1       2       2       2       3
 
                    UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                    Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Terrorism            3%      9%      8%      9%      9%     10%      8%
The war in Iraq     24      23      23      26      21      21      26
The economy         43      47      46      42      44      47      42
Illegal immigration  5       7       7       6       8       7       6
Health care         17      12      13      11      13      11      13
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)  4       1       2       3       2       2       2
DK/NA                3       1       2       3       2       2       2
 
TREND: Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year - terrorism, the war in Iraq, the economy, illegal immigration, or health care?
                    Apr 18  Mar 21
                    2008    2008
 
Terrorism            9       9  
The war in Iraq     24      22  
The economy         44      47  
Illegal immigration  7       4  
Health care         12      13  
SOMETHING ELSE (VOL) 2       2  
DK/NA                2       3  
 
 
18. When you decide how to vote for president, which of the following is the single most important quality you look for in a candidate - Trustworthy, shares your values, a strong leader, competent or inspiring?
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Trustworthy         26%     26%     27%     28%     30%     23%     27%     25%
Shares your values  16      17      11      19      15      16      16      14
A strong leader     29      35      29      24      27      31      27      33
Competent           25      21      27      24      24      25      26      24
Inspiring            3       1       5       3       3       3       3       4
DK/NA                1       1       1       1       1       2       1       -
 
                    UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                    Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Trustworthy         28%     29%     28%     24%     26%     21%     30%
Shares your values  14      16      16      15      16      14      16
A strong leader     30      24      26      31      33      36      25
Competent           20      27      25      26      21      25      24
Inspiring            7       2       3       3       3       3       3
DK/NA                -       2       2       1       1       1       1
 
 
19. Do you think it's the government's responsibility to make sure that everyone in the United States has adequate health-care, or don't you think so?
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Yes                 70%     46%     88%     67%     62%     77%     64%     88%
No                  28      53      11      29      35      22      33      10
DK/NA                2       2       1       3       3       1       2       2
 
                    UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                    Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Yes                 67%     66%     66%     77%     65%     71%     70%
No                  32      33      33      21      30      29      27
DK/NA                1       1       1       2       5       1       3
 
 
20. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Getting ahead       15%     12%     20%     11%     18%     12%     13%     23%
Falling behind      19      15      20      19      18      20      19      15
Holding steady      65      70      59      70      63      66      67      61
DK/NA                1       2       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
                    UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                    Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Getting ahead        5%     11%      9%     22%     14%     18%     14%
Falling behind      26      18      20      16      20      21      19
Holding steady      63      70      69      61      65      60      67
DK/NA                6       1       2       1       1       2       1
 
TREND: Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
                    Apr 18  Mar 21
                    2008    2008
                    
Getting ahead       15      18%
Falling behind      19      17 
Holding steady      65      64 
DK/NA                1       1 
 
 
22. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Right thing         26%     58%      9%     23%     31%     22%     32%      6%
Wrong thing         69      37      88      71      65      74      62      93
DK/NA                4       5       3       6       4       4       6       0
 
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing? (* also 26 Mar 21, 2008)
                    
                                                            Highest Lowest
                                                            Approve Approve
                    Apr 18  Mar 21  Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14  Apr 5   Apr 17
                    2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007    2008    
                                                                            
Right thing         26      26      30      31      30      31      26      
Wrong thing         69      69      65      64      66      64      69      
DK/NA                4       5       5       5       5       5       4      
 
 
23. What should the United States do in Iraq? Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
                    Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Withdraw all troops 23%      6%     36%     18%     20%     26%     18%     35%
Set a timetable     50      44      51      54      47      52      49      58
Keep as needed      24      46      10      24      30      18      29       4
DK/NA                4       4       2       4       3       4       4       4
 
TREND: What should the United States do in Iraq? A) Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR B) Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR C) Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
                    Apr 18  Mar 21
                    2008    2008
 
Withdraw all troops 23      23% 
Set a timetable     50      49  
Keep as needed      24      25  
DK/NA                4       3