June 11, 2008 - Obama Gains Among Whites To Bury McCain In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; More Oppose Clinton As Obama Running Mate

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Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, the likely Democratic presidential nominee, has pulled even among white voters with Arizona Sen. John McCain, the likely Republican contender, and now tops Sen. McCain 50 - 36 percent in New York State, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Obama gets 42 percent of white votes, to 43 percent for Sen. McCain. Black voters back the Democrat 87 - 6 percent. Obama leads 59 - 29 percent among voters under age 45 and 45 - 40 among voters over 45; 45 - 40 percent among men and 53 - 32 percent among women.

This compares to a 47 - 39 percent Obama lead over McCain in an April 18 poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, when New York Sen. Hillary Clinton still was in the race. In that survey, white voters backed McCain 48 - 38 percent.

In this latest survey, New York State voters say 48 - 42 percent that Obama should not pick Sen. Clinton as his running mate. Democrats support the idea 53 - 35 percent, while Republicans oppose it 62 - 27 percent and independent voters oppose it 53 - 41 percent.

Clinton on the Democratic ticket would help Obama, voters say 46 - 27 percent. Republicans split 34 - 33 percent, while Democrats say 61 - 19 percent and independent voters say 37 - 33 percent that Clinton helps.

"Our favorite daughter, Sen. Hillary Clinton, won't be on top of the ballot, but New York is still solidly blue. Sen. Barack Obama wins in a walk. He pulls even with Sen. John McCain among white voters. And he mesmerizes the young. In the 18-to-44 age bracket, he blows McCain away," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

New York State voters give Obama a 55 - 28 percent favorability, compared to 44 - 38 percent for McCain.

Obama cares about their needs and problems voters say 62 - 28 percent. They split on McCain, with 46 percent saying he doesn't care and 44 percent saying he does.

McCain's age will not affect their vote, 70 percent say, while 25 percent say it makes them less likely to vote for the Republican.

Obama's race won't affect their vote, 85 percent say, while 10 percent say it makes them more likely to vote for the Democrat.

"Some Republicans call Obama 'elitist,' but New Yorkers find him sympathetic. McCain, with a lifetime in government - first the Navy, then Congress - comes up narrowly negative on that measure," Carroll said.

"You have to be careful when you ask about prejudices. Do people tell the truth? Still, New Yorkers tell us, heavily, they're not prejudiced because of McCain's age, and, overwhelmingly, they're not prejudiced because of Obama's race."

The economy is the single most important issue in their presidential vote, 46 percent of voters say, while 24 percent list the war in Iraq and 12 percent list health care.

In fact, 76 percent of New York State voters describe the state's economy as "not so good" or "poor." That includes 84 percent of upstate voters, 66 percent of New York City voters and 75 percent of suburban voters. The economy will get worse in the next year, 46 percent of voters say, while 14 percent say it will get better and 36 percent say it will stay the same.

"No change. On issues, the old slogan holds: It's the economy, stupid," Carroll said. Bush Approval

New York State voters disapprove 76 - 20 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing. Even Republicans split 47 - 47 percent. This ties the findings in a March 27 Connecticut survey as the lowest mark for President Bush in any Quinnipiac University poll since he became President.

From June 3 - 8, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,388 New York State voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.

For more data -- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Obama                   50%     17%     74%     48%     45%     53%     42%     87%
McCain                  36      73      14      34      40      32      43       6
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       1       1       2       3       2       2       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       2       4       5       5       4       4       1
DK/NA                    8       7       6      11       8       9       8       6
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Obama                   44%     40%     40%     65%     43%     59%     45%
McCain                  35      42      40      25      43      29      40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          4       3       3       1       1       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         3       7       6       3       4       4       5
DK/NA                   14       9      10       6       8       5       9
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                        Jun 11  Apr 18  Mar 21  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                        2008    2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Obama                   50      47      49      47      48      47      46
McCain                  36      39      38      39      33      36      35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)          2       2       2       3       3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)         5       3       3       4       4       3       3
DK/NA                    8       9       8       8      12      12      14
 
 
2. Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable               53%     28%     77%     44%     41%     64%     51%     61%
Unfavorable             40      62      18      48      52      29      43      30
Hvn't hrd enough         4       4       4       4       4       3       4       2
REFUSED                  3       5       2       4       3       4       2       7
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Favorable               58%     51%     52%     58%     49%     50%     56%
Unfavorable             31      44      41      33      47      41      39
Hvn't hrd enough         8       4       5       3       2       5       3
REFUSED                  3       2       2       6       2       4       2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Hillary Clinton favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                        Jun 11  Apr 18  Mar 21  Dec 17  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5
                        2008    2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               53      48      53      53      58      59      58
Unfavorable             40      45      40      34      37      34      35
Hvn't hrd enough         4       5       5       9       3       5       4
REFUSED                  3       2       3       3       2       2       3
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable               55%     30%     73%     57%     56%     54%     47%     84%
Unfavorable             28      49      14      24      31      26      34       2
Hvn't hrd enough        14      20      10      16      11      17      16      12
REFUSED                  3       1       3       3       2       3       3       2
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Favorable               56%     46%     47%     69%     48%     66%     49%
Unfavorable             24      35      32      18      35      22      31
Hvn't hrd enough        19      18      18      10      15       9      18
REFUSED                  2       2       2       3       2       2       2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Jun 11  Apr 18  Mar 21  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                        2008    2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               55      50      56      54      48      48      44
Unfavorable             28      31      25      20      17      12       9
Hvn't hrd enough        14      18      17      24      33      38      46
REFUSED                  3       1       2       3       2       1       1
 
 
4. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Favorable               44%     76%     24%     46%     52%     37%     49%     25%
Unfavorable             38      11      58      34      33      42      34      51
Hvn't hrd enough        15      12      16      16      13      17      13      20
REFUSED                  3       1       2       3       3       3       3       3
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Favorable               43%     44%     44%     38%     53%     42%     46%
Unfavorable             35      39      38      43      30      39      38
Hvn't hrd enough        18      14      15      15      15      17      13
REFUSED                  4       2       3       3       3       1       3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                        Jun 11  Apr 18  Mar 21  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                        2008    2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable               44      46      49      49      40      47      48
Unfavorable             38      36      31      28      33      23      24
Hvn't hrd enough        15      15      18      20      25      27      26
REFUSED                  3       3       3       3       2       2       2
 
 
5. Do you think that Barack Obama should choose Hillary Clinton to be his vice- presidential running mate or not?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Yes                     42%     27%     53%     41%     32%     51%     38%     58%
No                      48      62      35      53      57      39      51      33
DK/NA                   11      11      12       6      11      10      12       9
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Yes                     36%     40%     39%     50%     34%     54%     34%
No                      46      53      52      42      49      40      53
DK/NA                   18       7       9       7      17       6      13
 
 
6. Do you think having Hillary Clinton on the Democratic ticket for vice-president would help or hurt Obama's chances of winning the presidential election, or wouldn't it make a difference?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Help                    46%     34%     61%     37%     38%     53%     45%     46%
Hurt                    27      33      19      33      33      21      31      16
Wldnt make a diff       21      28      15      23      22      21      17      30
DK/NA                    6       6       5       7       7       4       7       7
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Help                    42%     47%     46%     53%     35%     46%     46%
Hurt                    21      33      31      20      31      26      27
Wldnt make a diff       35      14      18      20      28      25      19
DK/NA                    2       6       5       6       5       4       7
 
 
8. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Approve                 66%     43%     87%     63%     58%     73%     62%     80%
Disapprove              28      51       9      32      37      21      33       8
DK/NA                    5       6       4       5       5       5       5      11
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Approve                 61%     60%     60%     76%     63%     71%     63%
Disapprove              32      36      35      18      32      25      31
DK/NA                    7       5       5       5       6       3       6
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator?
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Jun 11  Apr 17  Mar 24  Dec 12  Oct 2   Dec 14  Feb 14
                        2008    2008    2008    2007    2007    2006    2001
 
Approve                 66      62      64      64      65      72      38
Disapprove              28      31      29      29      30      23      30
DK/NA                    5       8       7       7       5       5      33
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as president?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Approve                 20%     47%      6%     13%     21%     19%     23%     12%
Disapprove              76      47      92      81      74      78      74      83
DK/NA                    4       6       2       7       6       3       4       5
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Approve                 17%     21%     20%     17%     23%     19%     21%
Disapprove              78      74      75      78      75      79      74
DK/NA                    5       5       5       5       2       3       5
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President? * also 82% on 10/2/01
                                                                Highest Lowest
                                                                Approve Approve
                        Jun 11  Apr 18  Mar 21  Dec 17  Jun 20  Nov 14  Jun 11
                        2008    2008    2008    2007    2007    2001 *  2008
 
Approve                 20      22      21      22      24      82      20
Disapprove              76      73      74      73      71      15      76
DK/NA                    4       4       4       5       5       3       4
 
 
19. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Terrorism                8%     17%      4%      7%      9%      8%      9%      5%
The war in Iraq         24      19      28      20      23      24      23      25
The economy             46      44      47      48      47      45      47      41
Illegal immigration      5       9       1       6       7       4       6       2
Health care             12       7      14      13       9      15      10      20
SOMETHING ELSE (VOL)     3       3       3       3       4       2       3       3
DK/NA                    2       1       2       2       2       2       2       3
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Terrorism                7%      7%      7%      9%      9%      8%      9%
The war in Iraq         18      23      22      28      21      21      25
The economy             54      47      48      46      40      49      43
Illegal immigration      2       7       6       4       7       4       6
Health care             14      12      12       9      16      13      11
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)      2       3       2       3       5       2       4
DK/NA                    2       2       2       2       2       2       2
 
TREND: Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year - terrorism, the war in Iraq, the economy, illegal immigration, or health care?
                        Jun 11  Apr 18  Mar 21
                        2008    2008    2008
 
Terrorism                8       9       9
The war in Iraq         24      24      22
The economy             46      44      47
Illegal immigration      5       7       4
Health care             12      12      13
SOMETHING ELSE (VOL)     3       2       2
DK/NA                    2       2       3
 
 
20. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Yes                     62%     44%     79%     59%     59%     64%     56%     91%
No                      28      47      11      29      31      24      33       1
DK/NA                   10       9      10      12       9      11      11       8
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Yes                     62%     53%     54%     76%     55%     72%     57%
No                      29      34      33      17      35      22      30
DK/NA                   10      14      13       7      11       6      13
 
 
21. Would you say that John McCain cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Yes                     44%     69%     28%     44%     50%     39%     50%     25%
No                      46      22      64      42      41      49      39      65
DK/NA                   10       8       8      14       9      12      11      10
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Yes                     47%     47%     47%     39%     45%     44%     44%
No                      47      40      42      51      46      49      44
DK/NA                    6      13      11      10       9       7      12
 
 
22. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 . Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
More likely              4%      5%      1%      4%      6%      2%      4%      -
Less likely             25      12      36      25      24      27      22      42
Doesn't make diff       70      83      62      71      70      71      73      58
DK/NA                    -       -       -       -       -       1       -       -
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
More likely              3%      5%      5%      2%      4%      3%      4%
Less likely             40      22      26      29      19      27      25
Doesn't make diff       57      72      69      69      77      70      70
DK/NA                    -       1       1       1       -       -       1
 
 
23. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
More likely             10%     10%     14%      5%      8%     11%      4%     28%
Less likely              3       6       2       2       4       3       4       -
Doesn't make diff       85      82      83      92      86      85      90      69
DK/NA                    2       2       1       1       2       1       2       2
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
More likely             10%      4%      5%     18%      5%     13%      8%
Less likely              6       6       6       1       2       1       5
Doesn't make diff       82      90      88      79      90      85      86
DK/NA                    2       1       1       2       2       1       2
 
 
24. Do you think it's the government's responsibility to make sure that everyone in the United States has adequate health care, or don't you think so?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Yes                     74%     54%     90%     71%     65%     81%     69%     87%
No                      23      42       8      25      32      15      27      12
DK/NA                    3       4       2       4       2       3       3       1
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Yes                     78%     69%     71%     79%     74%     78%     71%
No                      18      28      27      18      23      20      25
DK/NA                    4       3       3       3       3       1       4
 
TREND: Do you think it's the government's responsibility to make sure that everyone in the United States has adequate health care, or don't you think so?
                        Jun 11  Apr 18
                        2008    2008
 
Yes                     74      70
No                      23      28
DK/NA                    3       2
 
 
25. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Getting ahead           15%     19%     16%     11%     18%     14%     16%     10%
Falling behind          22      15      27      23      19      25      22      24
Holding steady          62      64      57      65      63      60      62      66
DK/NA                    1       1       -       1       1       1       1       -
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Getting ahead            9%     14%     13%     17%     17%     19%     13%
Falling behind          22      27      26      19      19      23      22
Holding steady          68      58      60      63      63      58      64
DK/NA                    -       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
TREND: Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
                        Jun 11  Apr 17  Mar 21
                        2008    2008    2008
 
Getting ahead           15      15      18
Falling behind          22      19      17
Holding steady          62      65      64
DK/NA                    1       1       1
 
 
28. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- a) Declining retirement fund values b) Declining real estate values c) Rising health care costs d) Rising gasoline prices e) Rising food prices
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Retirement funds        10%     10%     11%     11%      9%     11%     10%     21%
Real estate values       9      12       8       8      11       7       9      10
Health care costs       18      12      23      17      13      22      17      20
Gasoline prices         41      45      35      44      47      37      45      29
Food prices             18      17      21      15      17      19      16      17
DK/NA                    4       4       3       5       3       4       4       3
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Retirement funds        11%      8%      9%     11%     12%      7%     13%
Real estate values       2       4       4      11      16      11       7
Health care costs       17      14      15      24      15      16      19
Gasoline prices         59      54      55      24      42      43      41
Food prices             10      16      15      27       9      21      16
DK/NA                    2       3       3       3       5       2       4
 
 
29. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Right thing             24%     56%      5%     22%     31%     19%     29%      6%
Wrong thing             71      38      93      72      66      75      66      90
DK/NA                    5       6       2       6       3       6       5       4
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Right thing             23%     29%     28%     17%     29%     22%     26%
Wrong thing             74      66      67      79      67      74      69
DK/NA                    3       6       5       4       4       4       5
 
TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                        Jun 11  Apr 18  Mar 21  Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14  Oct 5
                        2008    2008    2008    2007    2007    2007    2006
 
Right thing             24      26      26      30      31      30      30
Wrong thing             71      69      69      65      64      66      63
DK/NA                    5       4       5       5       5       5       7
 
 
30. What should the United States do in Iraq? a) Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR b) Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR c) Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
                        Tot     Rep     Dem     Ind     Men     Wom     Wht     Blk
 
Withdraw all troops     22%     14%     29%     20%     21%     24%     19%     36%
Set a timetable         52      36      62      53      47      56      52      48
Keep troops as needed   23      47       7      22      29      17      26      10
DK/NA                    3       3       2       4       3       3       3       6
 
                        UpState.....    UpState                 Age     Age
                        Urban   Othr    Total   NYC     Sub     18-44   45+
 
Withdraw all troops     20%     21%     21%     27%     18%     22%     22%
Set a timetable         58      50      52      51      52      55      50
Keep troops as needed   20      25      24      18      28      21      24
DK/NA                    2       4       3       3       3       2       4
 
TREND: What should the United States do in Iraq? a) Withdraw all troops as soon as possible, OR b) Set a timetable to withdraw troops gradually OR c) Keep troops in Iraq as long as needed?
                        Jun 11  Apr 18  Mar 21
                        2008    2008    2008
 
Withdraw all troops     22      23      23
Set a timetable         52      50      49
Keep troops as needed   23      24      25
DK/NA                    3       4       3