August 7, 2008 - Blacks, Women Give Obama 21-Pt. Lead In New York, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Voters Split Evenly On Iraq Troop Withdrawal

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With commanding leads among blacks, women and younger voters, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama has a 57 - 36 percent likely voter lead over Arizona Sen. John McCain, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Obama gets 47 percent of white votes, to 45 percent for Sen. McCain. Black voters back the Democrat 93 - 2 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Obama also leads:
  • 50 - 43 percent among men;
  • 62 - 29 percent among women:
  • 71 - 28 percent among voters 18 to 34 years old;
  • 57 - 38 percent among voters 35 to 54;
  • 50 - 38 percent among voters over age 55.
Only 18 percent of Obama voters and 26 percent of McCain voters say they might change their mind before Election Day.

Obama gets a 60 - 24 percent favorability from New York State likely voters, compared to a 46 - 36 percent favorability for McCain.

Voters say 35 - 26 percent that Michelle Obama better fits their idea of a First Lady than Cindy McCain. Men split 29 - 29 percent while women prefer Ms. Obama 41 - 24 percent.

"In presidential politics, color New York State blue and throw away the crayons. Sen. Barack Obama's overseas trip didn't help him in other states where Quinnipiac University polls, but he moved up here," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Sen. Obama and Sen. McCain are about even among white voters. But - just as in the Democratic primaries against Sen. Hillary Clinton - Obama's a big winner among black and young voters. And now he gets the women 2 - 1," Carroll added.

Because of his age, 26 percent of New York State likely voters say they are less likely to vote for McCain. Obama's race won't affect their vote, 89 percent say.

"New Yorkers insist they're not prejudiced against a black candidate, but one out of four admit to being biased against an older candidate," Carroll said.

The economy is the biggest issue in their vote in November, 53 percent of voters say, followed by 17 percent who list the war in Iraq and 11 percent who cite health care.

President Bush's Approval

New York State likely voters disapprove 75 - 21 percent of the job President George W. Bush is doing and say 68 - 26 percent that going to war in Iraq was the wrong thing to do.

But voters split 48 - 48 percent on whether the U.S. should begin an immediate withdrawal of troops from Iraq with an 18-month timetable to complete the withdrawal or keeping troops in Iraq until the situation is stable, with no fixed date for full withdrawal.

"The Iraq war continues to divide us by party. Republicans think it was the right thing to do; Democrats disagree. And, maybe because of Obama's new tone, there's a big shift in what we should do in Iraq. New Yorkers split down the middle between an immediate troop withdrawal and staying as long as needed," Carroll said.

From July 31 - August 4, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,353 New York State likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, Ohio and the nation as a public service and for research.

1. If the election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided q1) As of today, do you lean more toward Obama or McCain? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS.................................................
                                                                             Union
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    HsHlds
 
Obama                57%    11%    88%    51%    50%    62%    47%    93%    59%
McCain               36     84      8     39     43     29     45      2     32
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      3      2      1      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      4      3      7      5      7      7      4      6
 
                     IMP ISSUE Q19 UpState....   UpState
                     War    Econ   Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Obama                72%    60%    49%    47%    47%    74%    48%
McCain               22     32     41     44     44     20     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      1      2      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      7      9      7      7      4      6
 
                                          WHITE...........................              
                     AGE IN YRS.......    NoColl College                                
                     18-34  35-54  55+    Degree Degree Men    Wom    Cath   Jew        
                                                                                        
Obama                71%    57%    50%    41%    57%    42%    52%    40%    60%        
McCain               28     38     38     50     38     52     39     54     37         
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2      2      1      2      1      1      -         
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -         
DK/NA                 -      3     11      8      4      5      8      6      3         
                                                                                        
                     PresVt2004..  BushJobAppQ10
                     Bush   Kerry  App    Dis
 
Obama                16%    83%     9%    72%
McCain               78     13     86     20
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      3      4      6
 
TREND: If the 2008 election for President were being held today, and the candidates were Barack Obama the Democrat and John McCain the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED VOTERS ...................................
                     Aug 6   Jun 11  Apr 18  Mar 21  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5
                     2008    2008    2008    2008    2007    2007    2007
 
Obama                52      50      47      49      47      48      47
McCain               31      36      39      38      39      33      36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       2       2       2       3       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       5       3       3       4       4       3
DK/NA                12       8       9       8       8      12      12
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                     CANDIDATE CHOICE GIVEN
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    Obama  McCain
 
Made up              77%    79%    72%
Might change         21     18     26
DK/NA                 2      2      2
 
 
2. Is your opinion of -- Barack Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    
 
Favorable            60%    26%    80%    60%    54%    64%    52%    90%    
Unfavorable          24     56      7     22     29     20     30      3     
Hvn't hrd enough     13     13     10     16     14     13     14      5     
REFUSED               3      5      2      3      4      3      4      1     
 
 
3. Is your opinion of -- John McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            46%    81%    23%    53%    52%    41%    56%    22%
Unfavorable          36      5     58     29     34     38     29     57 
Hvn't hrd enough     14     10     15     14      9     18     11     18 
REFUSED               4      3      3      4      5      3      4      3 
 
 
4. Is your opinion of -- Michelle Obama favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            38%    20%    54%    32%    31%    45%    34%    67%
Unfavorable          19     37      7     22     23     16     25      2 
Hvn't hrd enough     38     41     35     39     40     35     35     27 
REFUSED               5      3      4      7      6      4      6      3 
 
 
5. Is your opinion of -- Cindy McCain favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Favorable            21%    33%    14%    23%    20%    23%    26%    13%
Unfavorable          12      3     20      9      9     15      8     27 
Hvn't hrd enough     61     62     61     62     66     58     60     58 
REFUSED               5      2      5      6      6      4      6      2 
 
 
6. Who do you think better fits your idea of what a First Lady should be - Michelle Obama or Cindy McCain?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Michelle Obama       35%     9%    58%    26%    29%    41%    26%    76%
Cindy McCain         26     54      9     30     29     24     33      5 
DK/NA                38     37     33     43     42     35     42     19 
 
 
10. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk 
 
Approve              21%    61%     3%    16%    28%    16%    25%     6% 
Disapprove           75     35     95     79     69     81     70     92  
DK/NA                 4      5      2      5      3      4      4      2  
 
 
19. Which of the following will be the single most important issue in your vote in the election for President this year? (READ OPTIONS)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Terrorism             9%    21%     3%     9%    10%     8%    10%     3%
The war in Iraq      17     11     19     20     14     20     15     22 
The economy          53     47     57     53     53     52     55     50 
Illegal immigration   5      8      3      6      7      3      5      1 
Health care          11      6     15      8     11     12      9     20 
SOMETHING ELSE(VOL)   3      4      3      4      3      3      4      2 
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      1      2      2      1 
 
 
20. Would you say that Barack Obama cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  65%    39%    84%    61%    60%    70%    59%    88%
No                   25     51      8     27     29     21     31      2 
DK/NA                10      9      8     11     11      9     10     10 
 
 
21. Would you say that John McCain cares about the needs and problems of people like you or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Yes                  45%    77%    27%    48%    48%    43%    54%    23%
No                   45     17     64     41     42     48     38     64 
DK/NA                10      6      9     11     10      9      8     13 
 
 
22. If elected, John McCain would be the first person to become President at age 72 - Does that make you more likely to vote for McCain, less likely to vote for McCain, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
More likely           2%     3%     1%     2%     2%     1%     2%     2%
Less likely          26     12     35     24     26     26     24     33 
Doesn't make a diff  71     84     62     73     70     71     73     62 
DK/NA                 2      1      3      -      2      2      1      3 
 
 
23. If elected, Barack Obama would be the first African-American President. Does that make you more likely to vote for Obama, less likely to vote for Obama, or doesn't it make a difference?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
More likely           8%     3%    12%     5%     8%     8%     5%    19%
Less likely           3      5      1      3      4      2      3      2 
Doesn't make a diff  89     91     87     92     88     90     91     78 
DK/NA                 1      1      1      -      1      -      1      1 
 
 
24. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in the nation today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Very satisfied        1%     2%     1%     -      1%     1%     1%     - 
Smwht satisfied      15     26      9     15     18     12     14     18 
Smwht dissatisfied   38     45     37     35     34     40     38     45 
Very dissatisfied    46     26     53     50     45     47     46     37 
DK/NA                 1      2      1      -      1      1      1      - 
 
 
25. Which best describes your family's financial situation - Getting ahead, falling behind or holding steady?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Getting ahead        11%    15%    10%    11%    14%     9%    10%    11%
Falling behind       25     14     27     30     23     26     23     29 
Holding steady       64     71     62     58     63     64     66     60 
DK/NA                 -      -      -      1      -      1      -      - 
 
 
28. As you think about your own financial situation, which of the following economic issues worries you the most right now -- A) declining retirement fund values, B) declining real estate values, C) rising health care costs D) rising gasoline prices, or E) rising food prices?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
A) Retirement funds  14%    14%    12%    17%    12%    16%    16%    13%
B) Real estate vals   9      8     10      7      9      9      8      8 
C) Health care cost  21     19     24     18     22     21     22     27 
D) Gasoline prices   32     40     29     31     37     28     33     28 
E) Food prices       20     16     20     22     16     23     17     24 
DK/NA                 4      3      4      5      5      4      4      1 
 
 
29. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States to do or the wrong thing?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Right thing          26%    64%     8%    23%    34%    20%    32%     9%
Wrong thing          68     29     90     69     62     74     63     87 
DK/NA                 5      7      2      8      4      6      5      4 
 
 
30. Regardless of how you intend to vote, what would you prefer the next president do about the war in Iraq? A)Begin immediately a withdrawal of American troops, with a fixed date to have them all out within 18 months. OR B)Keep troops in Iraq until the situation is more stable, and then begin to withdraw them, without a fixed date for full withdrawal.
                     LIKELY VOTERS.......................................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
A) Begin immediate
 withdrawal/18 mos   48%    18%    65%    46%    40%    54%    41%    64%
B)Stay until stable/
 No fixed dates      48     79     29     50     55     41     54     31 
DK/NA                 5      3      5      4      4      5      4      5