January 14, 2009 - Kennedy Fades As New Yorkers Back Cuomo For Senate, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; More Voters Don't Think Kennedy Is Qualified

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New York State voters have cooled on Caroline Kennedy and more voters now prefer State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 31 - 24 percent for Hillary Clinton's U.S. Senate seat, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney gets 6 percent, with 5 percent for U.S. Rep. Kirsten Gillibrand, 2 percent for U.S. Rep. Steve Israel, 18 percent for someone else and 14 percent undecided.

Still, voters say 38 - 33 percent that Gov. David Paterson will appoint Ms. Kennedy to the U.S. Senate.

Cuomo leads Kennedy 31 - 20 percent among upstate voters and 36 - 22 percent in the suburbs, while Kennedy gets 31 percent of New York City voters to Cuomo's 29 percent, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Men back Cuomo 32 - 23 percent while women back him 31 - 25 percent.

New York State voters say 48 - 37 percent that Kennedy is not qualified to be a U.S. Senator and 40 - 37 percent that she would not be a good Senator. Democrats say 47 - 35 percent that she is qualified, while Republicans say 65 - 24 percent that she is not qualified. Independent voters say 51 - 34 percent that she is not qualified.

"Caroline Kennedy's stumbling start in her first interviews may have cost her the lead," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "It's close, but Attorney General Andrew Cuomo is No. 1 among voters in the race for Hillary Clinton's Senate seat."

"There's only one New Yorker whose opinion counts, of course, Gov. David Paterson. And a plurality of the rest of us still think that Paterson will pick Kennedy. So far, at least, Reps. Gillibrand, Maloney and Israel have no more than local recognition. All three get just a smattering of support."

New York State voters approve 69 - 16 percent of the job Cuomo is doing, compared to a 72 - 14 percent approval rating December 23, 2008. Cuomo gets a 57 - 10 percent favorability rating, with 32 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.

Kennedy gets a 39 - 29 percent favorability, with 31 percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion. This compares to a 46 - 17 percent favorability December 23.

By a 48 - 35 percent margin, New York State voters say they were not surprised by Kennedy's widely reported verbal tics, such as the use of 'you know,' in conversation. And by a 58 - 32 percent margin, voters were not surprised that news stories focused on these tics.

"You know, New Yorkers weren't particularly surprised at Kennedy's verbal tics. And they sort of expected the media to, you know, emphasize them," Carroll said.

New York State voters approve 68 - 26 percent of the way Hillary Clinton handled her job as U.S. Senator. Democrats approve 89 - 8 percent, as do independent voters, 60 - 29 percent, while Republicans disapprove 54 - 39 percent.

U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer gets a 57 - 24 percent approval rating.

"As she gets ready to be Secretary of State, Clinton gets high marks from New Yorkers on how she did her Senate job," Carroll said.

From January 8 - 12, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,664 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

2. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              57%    42%    71%    52%    55%    59%
Disapprove           24     41     10     27     29     19
DK/NA                19     17     19     20     16     22
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              50%    54%    53%    63%    56%
Disapprove           27     25     25     18     30
DK/NA                23     21     22     20     14
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (* also 69% on 10/02/01)
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Jan 14  Dec 23  Aug 6   Jun 12  Apr 17  Dec 8   Apr 15
                     2009    2008    2008    2008    2008    2004*   1999
 
Approve              57      63      61      66      65      69      51
Disapprove           24      22      23      21      18      16      22
DK/NA                19      15      16      14      17      15      28
 
 
3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton handled her job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              68%    39%    89%    60%    61%    73%
Disapprove           26     54      8     29     31     22
DK/NA                 6      7      3     11      8      5
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              59%    63%    62%    78%    63%
Disapprove           34     30     31     18     29
DK/NA                 7      7      7      4      9
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Hillary Clinton is handling her job as United States Senator? (* handled her job)
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Jan 14  Dec 23  Aug 6   Jun 12  Apr 17  Dec 14  Feb 14
                     2009*   2008    2008    2008    2008    2006    2001
 
Approve              68      70      66      66      62      72      38
Disapprove           26      25      29      28      31      23      30
DK/NA                 6       5       5       5       8       5      33
 
 
7. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              69%    65%    73%    69%    68%    70%
Disapprove           16     20     12     16     17     14
DK/NA                15     16     15     15     15     16
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              70%    67%    68%    70%    72%
Disapprove           11     18     16     15     15
DK/NA                20     15     16     15     14
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Jan 14  Dec 23  Aug 6   Jun 12  Apr 17  Dec 23  Feb 13
                     2009    2008    2008    2008    2008    2008    2007
 
Approve              69      72      68      69      65      72      42
Disapprove           16      14      13      15      13      14      16
DK/NA                15      14      19      17      21      14      42
 
 
10. As you may know, Senator Hillary Clinton has been nominated to be Secretary of State and Governor Paterson will pick her replacement in the Senate. Who do you think Governor Paterson should pick to replace Hillary Clinton in the United States Senate - Caroline Kennedy, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Carolyn Maloney, Steve Israel or Someone else?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Kennedy              24%    16%    31%    21%    23%    25%
Cuomo                31     32     32     30     32     31
Gillibrand            5      6      4      6      5      5
Maloney               6      3      6      8      4      7
Israel                2      2      1      3      3      1
Someone else         18     26     11     21     21     15
DK/NA                14     15     15     10     12     16
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Kennedy              22%    20%    20%    31%    22%
Cuomo                30     32     31     29     36
Gillibrand            5     11     10      2      1
Maloney               2      2      2     10      5
Israel                -      1      -      1      6
Someone else         28     20     22     13     17
DK/NA                14     15     14     15     12
 
 
TREND: As you may know, Senator Hillary Clinton has been nominated to be Secretary of State and Governor Paterson will pick her replacement in the Senate. Who do you think Governor Paterson should pick to replace Hillary Clinton in the United States Senate - Caroline Kennedy, Andrew Cuomo, Kirsten Gillibrand, Carolyn Maloney, Steve Israel or someone else? (* na = Not Asked)
                     Jan 14  Dec 23
                     2009    2008*
 
Kennedy              24      33
Cuomo                31      29
Gillibrand            5       4
Maloney               6      na
Israel                2      na
Someone else         18      24
DK/NA                14      10
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            57%    53%    61%    55%    57%    56%
Unfavorable          10     14      8      9     12      8
Hvn't hrd enough     32     31     30     34     28     35
REFUSED               2      2      2      3      3      1
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            49%    54%    53%    56%    65%
Unfavorable           5     12     10      9     10
Hvn't hrd enough     45     32     35     32     23
REFUSED               1      2      2      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jan 14  Dec 23
                     2009    2008
 
Favorable            57      55
Unfavorable          10      11
Hvn't hrd enough     32      32
REFUSED               2       2
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Caroline Kennedy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            39%    24%    53%    33%    35%    42%
Unfavorable          29     46     16     31     34     25
Hvn't hrd enough     31     29     29     34     29     32
REFUSED               2      2      2      1      2      1
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            33%    31%    31%    49%    38%
Unfavorable          41     33     35     18     33
Hvn't hrd enough     24     35     32     31     27
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Caroline Kennedy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Jan 14  Dec 23
                     2009    2008
 
Favorable            39      46
Unfavorable          29      17
Hvn't hrd enough     31      36
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
13. Do you think Caroline Kennedy would be a good United States Senator or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  37%    24%    50%    31%    34%    40%
No                   40     55     27     45     45     37
DK/NA                22     21     23     24     22     23
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Yes                  34%    31%    32%    46%    34%
No                   48     44     45     32     46
DK/NA                17     25     23     22     21
 
TREND: Do you think Caroline Kennedy would be a good United States Senator or not?
                     Jan 14  Dec 23
                     2009    2008
 
Yes                  37      46
No                   40      30
DK/NA                22      24
 
 
14. Do you think Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a United States Senator or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  37%    24%    47%    34%    35%    38%
No                   48     65     35     51     51     45
DK/NA                15     11     18     15     14     17
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Yes                  31%    31%    31%    45%    33%
No                   51     53     53     38     55
DK/NA                18     15     16     17     12
 
TREND: Do you think Caroline Kennedy is qualified to be a United States Senator or not?
                     Jan 14  Dec 23
                     2009    2008
 
Yes                  37      40
No                   48      41
DK/NA                15      19
 
 
15. Do you think Governor Paterson will pick Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate or not?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  38%    47%    36%    36%    43%    35%
No                   33     33     30     36     31     34
DK/NA                29     21     34     28     26     31
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Yes                  32%    36%    35%    38%    46%
No                   34     37     36     32     27
DK/NA                34     27     29     30     27
 
TREND: Do you think Governor Paterson will pick Caroline Kennedy to replace Hillary Clinton in the Senate or not?
                     Jan 14  Dec 23
                     2009    2008
 
Yes                  38      48
No                   33      25
DK/NA                29      27
 
 
16. Stories about Caroline Kennedy emphasized her repeated use of 'you know' in answers. Were you surprised at her use of 'you know'?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  35%    42%    33%    35%    34%    37%
No                   48     42     50     49     49     47
DK/NA                17     16     17     16     17     16
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Yes                  33%    36%    35%    31%    41%
No                   42     47     46     52     46
DK/NA                25     17     19     17     12
 
 
17. Were you surprised that news stories focused on this?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  32%    30%    33%    32%    30%    33%
No                   58     59     58     59     59     58
DK/NA                10     11      9      9     10      9
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Yes                  36%    32%    33%    31%    31%
No                   51     60     58     57     61
DK/NA                13      8      9     11      8