February 17, 2009 - Curse Of Caroline Leaves Paterson Trailing Cuomo 2-1, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Giuliani Ties Paterson, Trails Cuomo In Gov Race

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The Caroline Kennedy caper continues to bedevil New York Gov. David Paterson as he trails Attorney General Andrew Cuomo 55 - 23 in an early look at a 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

In a general election matchup, Gov. Paterson ties former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani, a possible Republican challenger, 43 - 43 percent, with 10 percent undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University poll finds. Paterson leads 70 - 18 percent among Democrats, while Giuliani leads 80 - 9 percent among Republicans and 47 - 38 percent among independent voters. New York City voters go with Paterson 52 - 35 percent, while Giuliani leads 48 - 36 percent among suburban voters and 47 - 38 percent upstate.

Attorney General Cuomo leads Giuliani 51 - 37 percent in the Governor's race, ahead 81 - 11 percent among Democrats and 45 - 40 percent among independent voters. Giuliani leads 76 - 11 percent among Republicans. Cuomo is up 61 - 30 percent in New York City and 48 - 41 percent in the suburbs and gets 44 percent of upstate voters to Giuliani's 42 percent.

New York State voters approve 45 - 41 percent of the job Paterson is doing, his lowest approval rating in 11 months as Governor and down from 50 - 30 percent January 26.

Voters disapprove 52 - 35 percent of the way Paterson handled the appointment of a U.S. Senator to fill Hillary Clinton's seat. Disapproval is similar across the political spectrum.

"The Caroline Kennedy mix-up still haunts Gov. David Paterson," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "In numbers which could tempt Attorney General Andrew Cuomo to take another shot at Governor, Paterson trails Cuomo 2 - 1 among Democratic voters and scratches out a tie with Mayor Rudolph Giuliani in the general election."

New York State voters approve 76 - 11 percent of the job Andrew Cuomo is doing and give him a 63 - 15 percent favorability.

Paterson gets a 41 - 35 percent favorability with 20 percent saying they don't know enough to form an opinion. Giuliani gets a 56 - 35 percent favorability.

Most New York State voters, 73 percent, heard or read something about the criticism of Caroline Kennedy that was leaked to the media. Voters say 64 - 28 percent that this criticism was unfair. But voters say 44 - 26 percent, with 30 percent undecided, that Paterson is not responsible for this leaked criticism.

"Three quarters of New Yorkers heard about the nasty news leaks. They think Kennedy was treated unfairly, but most don't blame Paterson for the leaks," Carroll said. Sen. Gillibrand

While voters are not happy with the process, they do approve 45 - 33 percent, with 22 percent undecided, of Paterson's selection of Kirsten Gillibrand as U.S. Senator. Even Republicans approve 42 - 33 percent.

Sen. Gillibrand gets a 28 - 10 percent job approval rating, with 62 percent undecided. Similarly, she gets a 24 - 9 percent favorability with 65 percent who haven't heard enough.

A possible challenger in the 2010 Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, U.S. Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, has a 24 - 9 percent favorability with 66 percent who haven't heard enough.

And U.S. Rep. Peter King, a possible 2010 Republican challenger for the Senate seat, has a 21 - 10 percent favorability, with 68 percent who don't know enough to decide.

Rep. McCarthy tops Sen. Gillibrand in a Democratic primary 34 - 24 percent, with 39 percent undecided.

In a general election matchup with Rep. King, Gillibrand is up 42 - 26 percent, with 28 percent undecided.

"Sen. Gillibrand needs to keep up her get-acquainted campaign. She trails Rep. Carolyn McCarthy, and 'don't know,' among Democrats and leads Rep. Peter King in a November campaign," Carroll said. "But as of today, voters don't know much about any of them."

From February 10 - 15, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,065 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.0 percentage points. The survey includes 450 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 4.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
                     Reg
                     Dems
 
Paterson             23%
Cuomo                55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1
DK/NA                20
 
 
2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand and Carolyn McCarthy, for whom would you vote?
                     Reg
                     Dems
 
Gillibrand           24%
McCarthy             34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2
DK/NA                39
 
 
3. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Paterson             43%     9%    70%    38%    40%    45%
Giuliani             43     80     18     47     46     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      2      2      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      3      1      2      3
DK/NA                10      9      7     12     10     11
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Paterson             42%    37%    38%    52%    36%
Giuliani             40     49     47     35     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       7      2      3      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      2      3      2
DK/NA                10     10     10      8     14
 
 
4. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Cuomo                51%    11%    81%    45%    46%    54%
Giuliani             37     76     11     40     42     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      2      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      2      2      2      2
DK/NA                 9     10      6     11      9      9
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Cuomo                53%    41%    44%    61%    48%
Giuliani             34     44     42     30     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      -      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      3      2      2      2
DK/NA                10     11     11      6     10
 
5. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Peter King the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Gillibrand           42%    11%    66%    37%    39%    44%
King                 26     56      8     26     30     23
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      3      2      2      2
DK/NA                28     30     23     33     26     30
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Gillibrand           56%    43%    46%    42%    33%
King                 14     21     19     25     40
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      2      2      3      2
DK/NA                27     33     32     27     23
 
 
6. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            63%    46%    78%    58%    63%    63%
Unfavorable          15     26      7     15     18     12
Hvn't hrd enough     20     24     15     23     16     22
REFUSED               2      3      1      3      3      2
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            63%    59%    60%    67%    63%
Unfavorable          17     12     13     14     19
Hvn't hrd enough     14     26     23     17     17
REFUSED               5      3      4      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Feb 17  Jan 14  Dec 23
                     2009    2009    2008
 
Favorable            63      57      55
Unfavorable          15      10      11
Hvn't hrd enough     20      32      32
REFUSED               2       2       2
 
 
7. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            41%    32%    51%    37%    44%    38%
Unfavorable          35     49     25     37     38     33
Hvn't hrd enough     20     15     21     21     15     24
REFUSED               4      5      3      5      4      4
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            46%    39%    40%    46%    32%
Unfavorable          35     35     35     32     42
Hvn't hrd enough     18     21     21     19     21
REFUSED               1      4      4      4      5
 
TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Feb 17  Jan 26
                     2009    2009
 
Favorable            41      48
Unfavorable          35      25
Hvn't hrd enough     20      24
REFUSED               4       3
 
 
8. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            56%    90%    37%    56%    56%    56%
Unfavorable          35      8     54     34     37     33
Hvn't hrd enough      7      2      9      8      4      8
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      2      2
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            54%    63%    61%    48%    61%
Unfavorable          28     25     25     46     35
Hvn't hrd enough     12      9     10      5      2
REFUSED               6      3      3      -      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of -- Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Feb 17  Dec 17  Oct 3   Jun 20  Apr 5   Feb 14
                     2009    2007    2007    2007    2007    2007
 
Favorable            56      41      55      55      55      56
Unfavorable          35      40      38      36      35      30
Hvn't hrd enough      7      16       5       7       8      11
REFUSED               2       3       2       3       2       3
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            24%    18%    28%    24%    26%    23%
Unfavorable           9     13      8      8     10      8
Hvn't hrd enough     65     68     63     68     63     67
REFUSED               1      1      1      -      1      2
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            29%    35%    34%    20%    12%
Unfavorable           6      7      7     13      7
Hvn't hrd enough     61     57     58     66     81
REFUSED               4      1      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Feb 17  Jan 26
                     2009    2009
 
Favorable            24      25
Unfavorable           9      10
Hvn't hrd enough     65      63
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Carolyn McCarthy favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            24%    14%    35%    22%    21%    27%
Unfavorable           9     14      3     11     11      6
Hvn't hrd enough     66     69     61     67     66     66
REFUSED               1      3      1      1      1      1
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable             9%     6%     6%    36%    42%
Unfavorable           3      5      4      8     18
Hvn't hrd enough     87     88     88     55     39
REFUSED               1      2      2      -      1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of Peter King favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            21%    40%    10%    21%    26%    17%
Unfavorable          10      2     17      8     12      9
Hvn't hrd enough     68     57     72     70     61     73
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            10%    12%    12%    22%    37%
Unfavorable           6      5      5     14     14
Hvn't hrd enough     84     82     82     63     47
REFUSED               -      1      1      -      2
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              45%    35%    53%    45%    48%    42%
Disapprove           41     52     36     38     40     42
DK/NA                14     13     12     17     12     16
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              38%    46%    44%    48%    42%
Disapprove           47     39     41     40     43
DK/NA                15     15     15     12     15
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor?
                     Feb 17  Jan 26  Jan 15  Dec 24  Aug 6   Jun 12  Apr 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2008    2008    2008    2008
 
Approve              45      50      53      53      64      56      50
Disapprove           41      30	 25      29      14      17      10
DK/NA                14      20	 22      18      22      27      39
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              28%    25%    35%    25%    29%    28%
Disapprove           10     13     10      7     10     10
DK/NA                62     62     55     68     61     63
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              32%    35%    34%    29%    16%
Disapprove            2      7      6     13     11
DK/NA                66     58     60     58     73
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              64%    36%    84%    65%    59%    68%
Disapprove           24     49      9     23     29     19
DK/NA                12     15      8     12     11     13
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              56%    58%    57%    76%    59%
Disapprove           26     27     26     18     27
DK/NA                18     16     16      6     13
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (* also 69% on 10/02/01)
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Feb 17  Jan 14  Dec 23  Aug 6   Jun 12  Dec 8   Apr 15
                     2009    2009    2008    2008    2008    2004*   1999
 
Approve              64      57      63      61      66      69      51
Disapprove           24      24      22      23      21      16      22
DK/NA                12      19      15      16      14      15      28
 
 
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              32%    27%    39%    27%    28%    35%
Disapprove           50     58     37     60     59     43
DK/NA                18     15     24     13     13     22
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              27%    31%    30%    36%    30%
Disapprove           57     53     54     46     48
DK/NA                16     16     16     17     22
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (* also 26% 8/11/2004)
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Feb 17  Jan 15  Dec 24  Aug 6   Jun 12  Apr 4   Aug 6
                     2009    2009    2008    2008    2008    2007    2008*
 
Approve              32      28      30      26      29      34      26
Disapprove           50      54      55      55      55      43      55
DK/NA                18      18      15      18      16      23      18
 
 
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Thomas DiNapoli is handling his job as State Comptroller?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              29%    23%    32%    31%    33%    26%
Disapprove           17     25     14     12     19     16
DK/NA                54     52     54     57     48     58
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              30%    27%    28%    30%    30%
Disapprove           19     15     16     17     20
DK/NA                51     58     56     53     50
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Thomas DiNapoli is handling his job as State Comptroller?
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Feb 17  Jan 15  Dec 24  Aug 6   Jun 12  Jul 31  Apr 4
                     2009    2009    2008    2008    2008    2007    2007
 
Approve              29      30      33      25      30      34      24
Disapprove           17      18      20      16      13      15      13
DK/NA                54      52      47      59      57      51      63
 
 
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              76%    65%    86%    76%    76%    76%
Disapprove           11     16      5     10     13      9
DK/NA                13     19      9     14     11     15
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              72%    73%    73%    82%    74%
Disapprove           13     11     12      9     12
DK/NA                14     16     15     10     14
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Feb 17  Jan 14  Dec 23  Aug 6   Jun 12  Feb 17  Feb 13
                     2009    2009    2008    2008    2008    2009    2007
 
Approve              76      69      72      68      69      76      42
Disapprove           11      16      14      13      15      11      16
DK/NA                13      15      14      19      17      13      42
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sheldon Silver is handling his job as State Assembly Speaker?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              30%    23%    39%    24%    27%    33%
Disapprove           33     43     25     37     44     25
DK/NA                37     34     36     38     30     42
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              33%    24%    26%    40%    23%
Disapprove           32     33     33     31     36
DK/NA                35     43     41     28     41
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Sheldon Silver is handling his job as State Assembly Speaker?
                                                             Highest Lowest
                                                             Approve Approve
                     Feb 17  Jan 15  Dec 24  Aug 6   Jun 12  Dec 24  Aug 11
                     2009    2009    2008    2008    2008    2008    2004
 
Approve              30      31      38      31      32      38      26
Disapprove           33      34      34      31      31      34      33
DK/NA                37      34      28      38      37      38      41
 
 
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Paterson handled the process of selecting a new United States senator to fill Hillary Clinton's senate seat?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              35%    35%    36%    37%    38%    33%
Disapprove           52     51     53     49     52     53
DK/NA                13     14     11     14     10     15
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              45%    39%    40%    36%    22%
Disapprove           44     45     44     57     61
DK/NA                11     16     15      7     17
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Governor Paterson handled the process of selecting a new United States senator to fill Hillary Clinton's senate seat?
                     Feb 17  Jan 26
                     2009    2009
 
Approve              35      44
Disapprove           52      42
DK/NA                13      14
 
 
22. Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Paterson's selection of Kirsten Gillibrand to fill Hillary Clinton's senate seat?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              45%    42%    47%    47%    49%    42%
Disapprove           33     33     35     31     32     34
DK/NA                22     25     18     22     19     24
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              52%    58%    56%    40%    29%
Disapprove           27     20     21     40     47
DK/NA                21     23     22     20     24
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of Governor Paterson's selection of Kirsten Gillibrand to fill Hillary Clinton's senate seat?
                     Feb 17  Jan 26
                     2009    2009
 
Approve              45      46
Disapprove           33      30
DK/NA                22      24
 
 
23. Have you heard or read anything about the criticism of Caroline Kennedy that was leaked to the news media around the time that Caroline Kennedy ended her Senate bid?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  73%    69%    75%    72%    72%    73%
No                   26     30     24     26     26     25
DK/NA                 2      1      1      2      2      2
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Yes                  67%    72%    71%    76%    69%
No                   32     26     28     22     28
DK/NA                 1      2      1      1      3
 
 
24. Do you think that the criticism of Caroline Kennedy that was leaked to the news media was fair or unfair?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Fair                 28%    34%    24%    32%    35%    23%
Unfair               64     57     71     61     59     69
DK/NA                 7      8      6      7      6      8
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Fair                 25%    30%    29%    31%    22%
Unfair               66     60     61     66     69
DK/NA                10     11     11      3      8
 
 
25. Do you think Governor Paterson was responsible for this leaked criticism of Caroline Kennedy?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  26%    22%    30%    21%    27%    25%
No                   44     50     40     49     46     43
DK/NA                30     28     30     30     27     32
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Yes                  17%    19%    18%    33%    27%
No                   40     51     48     42     41
DK/NA                43     31     33     25     32