June 24, 2009 - New York Governor's Disapproval Bottoms Out At 2 - 1, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Cuomo Holds 3 - 1 Lead In Dem Primary Race For Gov.

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New York Gov. David Paterson's approval rating, in free fall for a year, may have bottomed out with voters disapproving 61 - 28 percent of the job he's doing, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This is the exact same disapproval rating in a May 13 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN- uh-pe-ack) University.

In this latest poll, disapproval of Gov. Paterson ranges from 76 - 16 percent among Republicans to 64 - 24 percent among independent voters to 52 - 36 percent among Democrats. Black voters approve 52 - 35 percent while white voters disapprove 66 - 23 percent. Hispanic voters disapprove 54 - 33 percent.

In the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor, Attorney General Andrew Cuomo tops Paterson 57 - 20 percent, with 20 percent undecided.

Turning to the general election, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani leads Paterson 52 - 34 percent, including 90 - 3 percent among Republicans and 57 - 25 percent among independent voters. Paterson leads 60 - 28 percent among Democrats.

Cuomo tops Giuliani 51 - 39 percent, as independent voters switch to 45 - 40 percent for the Democrat. Republicans stay with Giuliani 78 - 12 percent. Democrats back Cuomo 79 - 16 percent, 19 percentage points greater than their support for Paterson.

"Gov. David Paterson's job approval holds negative among every demographic group except his fellow black New Yorkers. The only good news is that, like the economy, Paterson may have hit bottom, with nowhere to go but up," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

New York State voters say 64 - 22 percent that Paterson does not deserve to be elected to a full four-year term, virtually unchanged from April and May Quinnipiac University polls.

Voters approve 73 - 12 percent of the job Cuomo is doing. Even Republicans approve 58 - 24 percent. By a 63 - 15 percent margin, voters have a favorable opinion of Cuomo.

Paterson gets a negative 54 - 28 percent favorability while Giuliani gets a positive 55 - 36 percent score.

U.S. Senate Race

The 2010 Democratic primary for U.S. Senator remains in play as 27 percent back U.S. Rep. Carolyn Maloney and 23 percent back U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, with 4 percent for Jonathan Tasini and 44 percent undecided.

Sen. Gillibrand leads U.S. Rep. Peter King, a possible Republican challenger 44 - 28 percent, with 26 percent undecided. Maloney leads King 42 - 26 percent, with 30 percent undecided.

After five months in office, Gillibrand gets a 37 - 15 percent job approval rating from New York State voters, with 48 percent undecided.

Voters know little about the possible Senate candidates: 63 percent don't know enough about Gillibrand to form an opinion; 67 percent don't know enough about Maloney and 66 percent don't know enough about King.

"The New York clich‚, that a liberal wins a Democratic primary, looks like it holds true in this poll. Congresswoman Carolyn Maloney, a city liberal, edges Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, an upstate moderate, but almost half are undecided. They each beat Congressman Peter King, a Long Island Republican, by about the same," Carroll said.

From June 16 - 21, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,477 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points. The survey includes 1,048 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed - http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, or call (203) 582-5201.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRAT
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Paterson             20%    25%    17%
Cuomo                57     57     57
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      1
DK/NA                20     14     23
 
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRAT...........
                     Jun 24  May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Paterson             20      17      18      23
Cuomo                57      62      61      55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1       3       1
DK/NA                20      18      17      20
 
 
2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand, Carolyn Maloney and Jonathan Tasini, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRAT
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Gillibrand           23%    25%    22%
Maloney              27     26     28
Tasini                4      5      3
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      2
DK/NA                44     41     46
 
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand, Carolyn Maloney, and Jonathan Tasini, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRAT...
                     Jun 24  Apr 06  Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009
 
Gillibrand           23      29      24
Maloney              27      na      na
Tasini                4      na      na
McCarthy             na      33      34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       3       2
DK/NA                44      33      39
 
 
3. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Paterson             34%     3%    60%    25%    34%    34%    25%    77%    48%
Giuliani             52     90     28     57     55     50     62      6     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      2      5      3      3      3      3      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      4      5      3      4      3      4      3
DK/NA                 7      4      6      9      5     10      7     10      6
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Paterson             32%    24%    25%    49%    27%
Giuliani             51     62     60     37     61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       4      3      3      2      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      3      3      5      4
DK/NA                10      8      8      7      6
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jun 24  May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Paterson             34      32      32      43
Giuliani             52      54      53      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       3       4       2
DK/NA                 7       8       9      10
 
 
4. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Cuomo                51%    12%    79%    45%    49%    52%    45%    83%    52%
Giuliani             39     78     16     40     43     35     45      8     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      -      3      2      1      1      2      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1      -
DK/NA                 8      9      4     10      5     11      8      7      8
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Cuomo                55%    41%    43%    65%    43%
Giuliani             26     46     43     28     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      1      -
DK/NA                15     10     11      5      7
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jun 24  May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Cuomo                51      47      53      51
Giuliani             39      41      36      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       1       2       2
DK/NA                 8       9       9       9
 
 
5. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Peter King the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Gillibrand           44%    13%    67%    38%    41%    46%    39%    68%    53%
King                 28     63      8     31     34     22     32      6     20
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      2      2      3      2      2      2      2
DK/NA                26     24     23     28     21     30     26     23     25
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Gillibrand           48%    46%    46%    49%    29%
King                 16     26     24     20     46
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      0
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      2      3      1
DK/NA                32     26     26     27     24
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Peter King the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Jun 24  Apr 06  Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009
 
Gillibrand           44      40      42
King                 28      28      26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       3       2
DK/NA                26      28      28
 
 
6. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Carolyn Maloney the Democrat and Peter King the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Maloney              42%     8%    67%    36%    38%    45%    35%    72%    56%
King                 26     64      5     28     33     19     31      7     16
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      2      2      3      2      2      1      2
DK/NA                30     28     25     34     25     34     31     19     26
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Maloney              39%    31%    32%    54%    41%
King                 18     26     25     18     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      3      2      3      2      1
DK/NA                38     39     39     25     18
 
 
7. Is your opinion of - Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            63%    47%    75%    63%    61%    65%    63%    68%    59%
Unfavorable          15     33      4     16     21     10     17      5     11
Hvn't hrd enough     20     17     19     19     16     23     17     25     27
REFUSED               2      3      2      2      1      3      2      3      3
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            66%    58%    59%    68%    64%
Unfavorable          14     19     18     11     17
Hvn't hrd enough     20     21     21     20     17
REFUSED               1      2      2      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jun 24  May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17  Jan 14  Dec 23
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2008
 
Favorable            63      51      63      63      57      55
Unfavorable          15      13      17      15      10      11
Hvn't hrd enough     20      34      18      20      32      32
REFUSED               2       2       2       2       2       2
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            28%    13%    40%    22%    27%    28%    22%    57%    38%
Unfavorable          54     72     43     57     58     50     62     25     39
Hvn't hrd enough     14     12     13     16     10     18     12     17     17
REFUSED               4      3      4      5      5      4      4      2      6
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            23%    22%    22%    37%    24%
Unfavorable          57     61     61     43     59
Hvn't hrd enough     15     13     13     15     13
REFUSED               5      4      4      5      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jun 24  May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17  Jan 26
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            28      24      27      41      48
Unfavorable          54      55      55      35      25
Hvn't hrd enough     14      18      14      20      24
REFUSED               4       3       4       4       3
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            55%    87%    33%    56%    55%    54%    62%    16%    48%
Unfavorable          36      7     56     34     38     35     29     72     42
Hvn't hrd enough      6      6      8      5      5      8      6      7      8
REFUSED               3      1      3      4      2      3      2      5      2
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            55%    64%    63%    40%    60%
Unfavorable          34     23     25     52     34
Hvn't hrd enough     10     10     10      4      4
REFUSED               1      3      3      3      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 56% Feb 2009 and Feb 2007)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Jun 24  May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17  Dec 17  May 13  Dec 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2007    2009*   2007
 
Favorable            55      56      55      56      41      56      41
Unfavorable          36      32      35      35      40      32      40
Hvn't hrd enough      6      10       7       7      16      10      16
REFUSED               3       2       4       2       3       2       3
 
 
10. Is your opinion of - Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            25%    18%    29%    27%    26%    25%    26%    22%    19%
Unfavorable          10     16      8     11     13      9     11      4     10
Hvn't hrd enough     63     65     62     60     60     65     62     72     71
REFUSED               2      1      1      3      2      2      1      2      -
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            34%    37%    36%    19%    13%
Unfavorable           6     10     10     10     13
Hvn't hrd enough     59     52     53     68     73
REFUSED               -      1      1      3      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Jun 24  Apr 06  Feb 17  Jan 26
                     2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            25      24      24      25
Unfavorable          10      11       9      10
Hvn't hrd enough     63      64      65      63
REFUSED               2       1       1       1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of - Carolyn Maloney favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            24%     9%    34%    23%    23%    25%    20%    38%    26%
Unfavorable           8     15      2      9     11      5      9      4      6
Hvn't hrd enough     67     75     63     67     65     69     70     57     68
REFUSED               1      1      1      2      2      1      1      1      -
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            13%    13%    13%    36%    26%
Unfavorable           2      5      4      8     15
Hvn't hrd enough     85     81     82     54     59
REFUSED               -      1      1      2      1
 
 
12. Is your opinion of - Peter King favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            22%    44%    11%    24%    29%    16%    24%    11%    22%
Unfavorable          11      2     15     11     13      9      9     16     13
Hvn't hrd enough     66     53     73     64     57     74     66     71     65
REFUSED               1      1      2      1      1      1      1      3      -
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            15%    13%    13%    22%    40%
Unfavorable           4      5      5     17     14
Hvn't hrd enough     80     81     81     60     46
REFUSED               -      1      1      2      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Peter King favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Jun 24  Apr 06  Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            22      22      21
Unfavorable          11      11      10
Hvn't hrd enough     66      67      68
REFUSED               1       1       1
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              28%    16%    36%    24%    29%    27%    23%    52%    33%
Disapprove           61     76     52     64     64     58     66     35     54
DK/NA                12      9     12     12      8     15     10     14     13
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              25%    24%    24%    33%    26%
Disapprove           64     67     66     53     62
DK/NA                12      9      9     14     13
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor? (*Low app also 28% Apr 2009 & May 13 2009 / ** High Dis also 61% May 13 2009)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Jun 24  May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17  Aug 06  Jun 24  Jun 24
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2008    2009*   2009**
 
Approve              28      28      28      45      64      28      28
Disapprove           61      61      60      41      14      61      61
DK/NA                12      10      13      14      22      12      12
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              37%    26%    45%    39%    37%    37%    37%    37%    41%
Disapprove           15     23     10     15     19     11     15      9     16
DK/NA                48     51     46     46     44     52     49     54     44
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              37%    48%    46%    35%    23%
Disapprove           12     14     14     14     17
DK/NA                51     38     40     51     60
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                     Jun 24  Apr 06  Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              37      33      28
Disapprove           15      13      10
DK/NA                48      54      62
 
 
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              63%    43%    78%    62%    64%    63%    62%    79%    65%
Disapprove           23     44      9     26     30     17     27      7     13
DK/NA                14     13     12     13      6     20     12     13     22
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              59%    58%    58%    73%    57%
Disapprove           20     28     27     16     28
DK/NA                21     14     14     12     15
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High app also 69% Oct 2001)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Jun 24  Apr 06  Feb 17  Jan 14  Dec 8   Apr 15  Jan 20
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2004*   1999    2006
 
Approve              63      61      64      57      69      51      58
Disapprove           23      25      24      24      16      22      28
DK/NA                14      14      12      19      15      28      14
 
 
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              67%    31%    94%    63%    63%    71%    61%    96%    84%
Disapprove           26     60      4     28     31     22     31      3     13
DK/NA                 7      9      2      9      7      7      8      2      3
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              68%    60%    61%    82%    58%
Disapprove           23     33     32     14     34
DK/NA                 9      7      8      5      8
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                     Jun 24  Apr 06  Feb 19
                     2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              67      71      72
Disapprove           26      21      17
DK/NA                 7       7      10
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              73%    58%    82%    77%    74%    73%    74%    79%    65%
Disapprove           12     24      6     11     16     10     12      8     17
DK/NA                14     18     12     12     10     18     14     13     19
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              76%    71%    72%    75%    74%
Disapprove            7     13     12     11     14
DK/NA                17     16     16     13     12
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Jun 24  May 13  Apr 06  Feb 17  Feb 17  Feb 13  Jul 31
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2007    2007
 
Approve              73      68      75      76      76      42      68
Disapprove           12      12      14      11      11      16      19
DK/NA                14      20      11      13      13      42      24
 
 
21. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for Governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4 year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4 year term?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Yes/Deserves         22%    11%    31%    19%    23%    22%    17%    47%    32%
No/Does not          64     79     56     67     67     62     70     37     57
DK/NA                13     10     13     14      9     17     13     16     11
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Yes/Deserves         23%    18%    19%    29%    18%
No/Does not          64     70     69     56     67
DK/NA                14     12     12     14     14
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
                     Jun 24  May 13  Apr 06
                     2009    2009    2009
 
Yes/Deserves         22      21      22
No/Does Not          64      64      63
DK/NA                13      15      16