October 21, 2009 - Blacks Back Cuomo Over Paterson 2-1, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Governor's Approval Continues To Inch Up

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New York Attorney General Andrew Cuomo leads Gov. David Paterson 51 - 24 percent among black Democrats in a primary contest for the 2010 governor's race, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today, and does better than Gov. Paterson among black voters in job approval and favorability.

Among all Democrats, Cuomo tops Paterson 61 - 19 percent, compared to 61 - 15 percent in an August 16 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

In a Republican primary for Governor, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani tops former U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio 74 - 9 percent. Looking at possible general election matchups:
  • Giuliani leads Paterson 54 - 32 percent;
  • Cuomo tops Giuliani 50 - 40 percent;
  • Paterson ties Lazio 38 - 38 percent;
  • Cuomo leads Lazio 61 - 22 percent.
In the Cuomo-Giuliani matchup, independent voters split with 44 percent for Cuomo and 43 percent for Giuliani. White voters back Giuliani 47 - 42 percent. Black voters go to Cuomo 78 - 14 percent.

In a Paterson-Giuliani face-off, black voters back the Governor 72 - 13 percent.

"If there's a racial issue in a matchup between Gov. David Paterson and Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, these numbers don't show it. Black Democrats back Cuomo hands down, and black voters in general give Cuomo better grades than the Governor on every measure - even in a race against Mayor Rudolph Giuliani," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"The only good news for Gov. Paterson is that he doesn't lose to Rick Lazio."

New York State voters disapprove 57 - 30 percent of the job Paterson is doing, compared to 59 - 30 percent disapproval August 16. He gets a negative 28 - 52 percent favorability rating.

Cuomo gets a 71 - 11 percent approval rating and a 61 - 13 percent favorability score.

Looking at how black voters rate Paterson and Cuomo:
  • 75 - 9 percent job approval for Cuomo;
  • 46 - 38 percent job approval for Paterson;
  • 70 - 3 percent favorability for Cuomo;
  • 53 - 26 percent favorability for Paterson.
"Nothing seems to help the Governor's job approval numbers. He made news by calling for big cuts to balance the state budget, but voters still turn thumbs down," Carroll said.

"Nothing seems to hurt Attorney General Cuomo whose job performance is still stratospheric. He remains the man to beat in 2010."

President Barack Obama's administration did the "wrong thing" in asking Paterson not to run for election to a full term next year, voters say 52 - 34 percent. Black voters seem less offended than white voters as blacks say 43 - 35 percent the stop-Paterson move was wrong, compared to 57 - 31 percent among whites.

"Voters don't approve of the way messengers from President Barack Obama suggested that Paterson should not run," Carroll said. "Many politicians thought it was a clumsy tactic and, asked if it was right or wrong, most New Yorkers said 'wrong.'"

President Obama's Approval

New York State voters approve 62 - 32 percent of the job President Obama is doing, compared to 60 - 35 percent August 16, before his stop-Paterson move became public. In today's survey, Obama wins 89 - 7 percent approval from Democrats and 56 - 38 percent support from independent voters. Republicans disapprove 70 - 22 percent.

From October 14 - 19, Quinnipiac University surveyed 2,367 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points. The survey includes 1,089 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3 percentage points and 659 Republicans with a margin of error of +/- 3.8 percentage points. There are 299 black voters with a margin of error of +/- 5.7 percent.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS...........
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Paterson             19%    23%    16%    12%    24%
Cuomo                61     60     62     70     51
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      2      2      1
DK/NA                17     14     18     16     22
 
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..........................
                     Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Paterson             19      15      20      17      18      23
Cuomo                61      61      57      62      61      55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       1       1       1       3       1
DK/NA                17      22      20      18      17      20
 
 
2. (If registered Republican) If the 2010 Republican primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were Rick Lazio and Rudy Giuliani, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED REPS..
                     Tot    Men    Wom
 
Lazio                 9%    12%     5%
Giuliani             74     73     76
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      1
DK/NA                14     12     17
 
 
3. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Paterson             32%     3%    56%    24%    32%    32%    21%    72%    46%
Giuliani             54     90     31     58     56     51     65     13     37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      2      1      2      1      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      4      6      5      4      4      5      1
DK/NA                 9      5      8      9      6     11      8      8     15
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Paterson             44%    21%    24%    46%    24%
Giuliani             38     62     59     40     65
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      2      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      4      5      4      3
DK/NA                11     11     11      8      7
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Paterson             32      33      34      32      32      43
Giuliani             54      53      52      54      53      43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2       3       3       2       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       4       4       3       4       2
DK/NA                 9       8       7       8       9      10
 
 
4. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Cuomo                50%    14%    76%    44%    44%    56%    42%    78%    63%
Giuliani             40     79     17     43     47     33     47     14     28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      -      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      1      2      2      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                 8      7      6     10      6     10      9      7      8
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Cuomo                61%    42%    45%    61%    44%
Giuliani             30     45     43     31     48
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      2      2      1      1
DK/NA                 8     10     10      6      7
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Cuomo                50      48      51      47      53      51
Giuliani             40      39      39      41      36      37
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1       1       1       -       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2       1       1       1       2       2
DK/NA                 8      10       8       9       9       9
 
 
5. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Paterson             38%     9%    63%    30%    38%    39%    28%    70%    61%
Lazio                38     76     16     40     43     33     47     13     19
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      5      3      2      3      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      3      6      6      6      6      6      3      3
DK/NA                16     12     13     19     11     20     17     14     15
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Paterson             53%    28%    31%    52%    30%
Lazio                26     47     44     25     45
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      3      3      2      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      6      6      7      7      3
DK/NA                13     15     15     14     20
 
 
6. If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Cuomo                61%    27%    83%    57%    57%    64%    55%    80%    69%
Lazio                22     60      4     21     28     16     27      5      9
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      3      3      1      2      -      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      2      2      2      3      2      2      -      2
DK/NA                13     11     10     16      9     17     13     14     18
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Cuomo                69%    54%    56%    69%    56%
Lazio                13     27     25     15     28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      2      2      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      3      3      2      1
DK/NA                13     14     14     13     15
 
 
7. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            61%    45%    73%    59%    58%    64%    60%    70%    61%
Unfavorable          13     25      5     15     18      9     16      3      5
Hvn't hrd enough     23     27     20     25     22     24     23     21     31
REFUSED               3      3      2      1      2      3      2      5      2
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            68%    57%    58%    66%    59%
Unfavorable          11     16     15     10     13
Hvn't hrd enough     17     24     24     20     26
REFUSED               4      3      3      3      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 63% Apr 2009 and Feb 2009)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Jun 24  May 13
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009*   2009
 
Favorable            61      52      63      51      63      63      51
Unfavorable          13      12      15      13      17      15      13
Hvn't hrd enough     23      34      20      34      18      20      34
REFUSED               3       2       2       2       2       2       2
 
 
8. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            28%    12%    40%    25%    30%    27%    21%    53%    41%
Unfavorable          52     68     40     55     55     49     61     26     28
Hvn't hrd enough     15     16     15     16     12     18     14     16     27
REFUSED               5      3      6      4      3      6      4      5      4
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            39%    21%    24%    36%    23%
Unfavorable          45     62     60     41     55
Hvn't hrd enough     13     13     13     17     16
REFUSED               4      3      3      5      6
 
TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Feb 17  Jan 26
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            28      26      28      24      27      41      48
Unfavorable          52      53      54      55      55      35      25
Hvn't hrd enough     15      18      14      18      14      20      24
REFUSED               5       3       4       3       4       4       3
 
 
9. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            57%    87%    39%    60%    60%    54%    65%    26%    52%
Unfavorable          32      7     49     30     31     34     26     61     29
Hvn't hrd enough      8      5      9      9      7      9      8     10     13
REFUSED               2      1      3      1      2      3      2      4      5
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            53%    60%    59%    47%    69%
Unfavorable          28     24     25     44     28
Hvn't hrd enough     17     14     14      5      2
REFUSED               3      2      2      4      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Oct 21  Dec 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2007
 
Favorable            57      53      55      56      55      57      41
Unfavorable          32      33      36      32      35      32      40
Hvn't hrd enough      8      11       6      10       7       8      16
REFUSED               2       4       3       2       4       2       3
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            15%    34%     7%    16%    18%    13%    18%     6%     9%
Unfavorable          13      6     21      9     15     11     13     10     18
Hvn't hrd enough     70     59     70     75     64     75     67     81     72
REFUSED               2      1      2      1      2      1      2      4      -
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            12%    13%    13%    13%    23%
Unfavorable          19     12     12     14     12
Hvn't hrd enough     67     73     73     71     64
REFUSED               2      2      2      2      1
 
 
11. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              30%    14%    38%    28%    32%    27%    25%    46%    37%
Disapprove           57     74     46     59     57     56     63     38     41
DK/NA                14     11     16     13     10     17     12     15     21
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              41%    24%    26%    36%    26%
Disapprove           46     65     62     47     61
DK/NA                13     11     11     17     13
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as governor? (*Low App also 28% Apr 2009 & May 2009 / ** High Dis also 61% May 2009)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Aug 6   Jun 24  Jun 24
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2008    2009*   2009**
 
Approve              30      30      28      28      64      28      28
Disapprove           57      59      61      61      14      61      61
DK/NA                14      12      12      10      22      12      12
 
 
12. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              32%    22%    41%    30%    31%    33%    31%    37%    34%
Disapprove           20     36     11     19     24     16     23     11     10
DK/NA                48     42     48     51     45     51     46     52     56
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              40%    39%    39%    31%    20%
Disapprove           14     23     22     16     23
DK/NA                46     38     39     53     57
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                     Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  Apr 6   Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              32      33      37      33      28
Disapprove           20      19      15      13      10
DK/NA                48      48      48      54      62
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              62%    44%    78%    56%    61%    63%    59%    74%    63%
Disapprove           24     45      9     29     29     20     29     11     13
DK/NA                14     11     13     15     11     17     12     15     24
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              61%    55%    56%    68%    62%
Disapprove           17     29     27     19     27
DK/NA                22     16     17     12     11
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High app also 69% Oct 2001)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  Apr 6   Dec 8   Apr 15  Jan 20
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2004*   1999    2006
 
Approve              62      58      63      61      69      51      58
Disapprove           24      27      23      25      16      22      28
DK/NA                14      15      14      14      15      28      14
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              62%    22%    89%    56%    59%    65%    54%    89%    81%
Disapprove           32     70      7     38     36     28     40      7     17
DK/NA                 6      8      3      6      4      7      6      3      2
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              74%    55%    57%    75%    51%
Disapprove           21     39     37     20     41
DK/NA                 5      6      6      5      7
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                     Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  Apr 6   Feb 19
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              62      60      67      71      72
Disapprove           32      35      26      21      17
DK/NA                 6       6       7       7      10
 
 
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              19%    13%    26%    13%    18%    19%    14%    35%    28%
Disapprove           67     76     57     75     74     62     74     48     44
DK/NA                14     10     17     11      8     19     12     16     28
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              25%    13%    15%    24%    17%
Disapprove           61     76     74     59     70
DK/NA                14     11     11     17     13
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way the state legislature is handling its job? (*Low app also 18% Jun 2009)
                                                     APPROVE......   DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Oct 21  Aug 18  Jun 22  Apr 6   Apr 4   Aug 18  Aug 18
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2007    2009*   2009
 
Approve              19      18      18      26      34      18      18
Disapprove           67      72      69      58      43      72      72
DK/NA                14      10      13      16      23      10      10
 
 
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              71%    65%    80%    68%    73%    69%    72%    75%    61%
Disapprove           11     17      5     13     14      8     12      9      7
DK/NA                18     18     15     19     12     23     16     16     32
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              78%    71%    72%    72%    68%
Disapprove            9     11     11     10     11
DK/NA                13     18     17     18     21
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Feb 17  Feb 13  Jul 31
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2007    2007
 
Approve              71      74      73      68      76      42      68
Disapprove           11      10      12      12      11      16      19
DK/NA                18      17      14      20      13      42      14
 
 
17. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Very satisfied        2%     2%     3%     2%     3%     2%     2%     4%     4%
Smwht satisfied      28     15     42     19     25     31     23     39     41
Smwht dissatisfied   37     37     37     41     34     41     38     38     44
Very dissatisfied    31     45     17     37     39     25     37     17     11
DK/NA                 1      1      1      1      1      1      -      2      1
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Very satisfied        3%     1%     2%     4%     1%
Smwht satisfied      26     18     19     39     27
Smwht dissatisfied   33     37     36     35     43
Very dissatisfied    34     43     43     20     29
DK/NA                 4      -      1      1      -
 
TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                                                             VERY+SMWHT SAT
                                                             High    Low
                     Oct 21  Aug 18  Jun 22  Apr 7   Feb 18  Feb 25  Apr 7
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    1998    2009
 
Very satisfied        2       3       2       1       2      13       1
Smwht satisfied      28      25      26      24      29      60      24
Smwht dissatisfied   37      37      34      34      37      20      34
Very dissatisfied    31      34      37      40      31       7      40
DK/NA                 1       1       1       1       1       1       1
 
 
18. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Yes/Deserves         23%    11%    32%    21%    27%    20%    17%    40%    37%
No/Does not          63     81     53     66     63     64     71     43     47
DK/NA                13      7     15     13     11     16     12     17     15
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Yes/Deserves         33%    19%    20%    29%    20%
No/Does not          53     70     68     56     68
DK/NA                14     11     12     15     12
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
                     Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Yes/Deserves         23      20      22      21      22
No/Does not          63      67      64      64      63
DK/NA                13      13      13      15      16
 
 
19. Do you think the Obama administration did the right thing or the wrong thing by asking Governor Paterson not to run for election next year?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Right thing          34%    27%    38%    33%    33%    35%    31%    35%    48%
Wrong thing          52     65     45     53     54     50     57     43     36
DK/NA                15      8     17     14     13     16     13     22     16
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Right thing          34%    34%    34%    36%    29%
Wrong thing          52     54     53     47     56
DK/NA                15     12     13     17     15