December 15, 2009 - Paterson Approval Up, But Dems Back Cuomo Almost 3-1, Quinnipiac University New York State Poll Finds; Thompson Tops Gillibrand In Dem Senate Primary

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New York Gov. David Paterson continues his climb out of the basement, as voters disapprove 49 - 40 percent of the job he is doing, up from 57 - 30 percent disapproval October 21 and his best overall score since a 45 - 41 percent approval February 17, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Attorney General Andrew Cuomo still leads Gov. David Paterson 60 - 23 percent among Democrats in a primary contest for the 2010 governor's race. This compares to a 61 - 19 percent Cuomo lead in an October 21 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University. Cuomo leads 72 - 15 percent among white Democrats and ties Paterson 41 - 40 percent among black Democrats.

New York State voters say 59 - 28 percent that Paterson does not deserve election to a full four-year term.

Looking at possible general election matchups against former U.S. Rep. Rick Lazio, the only Republican contender at this point:
  • Cuomo tops Lazio 62 - 22 percent;
  • Paterson leads Lazio 41 - 37 percent.
New York City Comptroller William Thompson leads incumbent U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand 41 - 28 percent in a possible 2010 Democratic primary race. In a general election matchup, former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani tops Thompson 52 - 36 percent and Gillibrand 50 - 40 percent.

"Gov. David Paterson's tough talk on the state budget has boosted his job-approval numbers across the political board - with Democrats, Republicans and independent voters," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Gov. Paterson's new TV ads depict him as a probable 2010 candidate. But New Yorkers say 2-1 'fuhgeddaboutit,'" Carroll added. "He still trails State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo almost 3-1 in a Democratic primary. With Mayor Rudolph Giuliani out as a possible Republican candidate - and only former Congressman Rick Lazio in the field right now - Paterson is up a few points. Cuomo trounces the Republican almost 3-1.

"If New York City Comptroller Bill Thompson can raise some money and get in the race, he has a double-digit lead over rookie U.S. Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand. But Giuliani, who is pondering a Senate race, tops both of them."

New York State voters give Paterson a negative 38 - 44 percent favorability rating, his best favorability score since a February 17 Quinnipiac University poll.

Cuomo gets a 74 - 12 percent approval rating, continuing a six-month streak of plus-70 scores. He gets a 57 - 14 percent favorability.

Giuliani gets a 59 - 32 percent favorability. Gillibrand, Thompson and Lazio are largely unknown, as 58 to 67 percent of voters don't know enough about them to form an opinion.

The biggest jump in Paterson's approval is among Republicans, who went from 60 percentage points negative October 21 to 40 points negative today. Democrats went from 8 points negative to 10 points positive while independent voters went from 31 points negative to 12 points negative.

Obama, Schumer Approval

New York State voters approve 59 - 36 percent of the job President Obama is doing, compared to 62 - 32 percent October 21. In today's survey, Obama wins 87 - 10 percent approval from Democrats and 55 - 38 percent support from independent voters. Republicans disapprove 76 - 19 percent.

U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer, facing reelection in 2010, has a 62 - 27 percent approval.

From December 7 - 13, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,692 New York State registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points. The survey includes 719 Democrats with a margin of error of +/- 3.7 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS...........
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Paterson             23%    26%    21%    15%    40%
Cuomo                60     62     58     72     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      1      -
DK/NA                16     11     19     12     18
 
TREND: (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson and Andrew Cuomo, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS..................................
                     Dec 15  Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6   Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Paterson             23      19      15      20      17      18      23
Cuomo                60      61      61      57      62      61      55
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       1       1       1       1       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       2       1       1       1       3       1
DK/NA                16      17      22      20      18      17      20
 
 
2. (If registered Democrat) If the 2010 Democratic primary for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand and William Thompson, for whom would you vote?
                     REGISTERED DEMOCRATS...........
                     Tot    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk
 
Gillibrand           28%    28%    28%    36%    11%
Thompson             41     42     39     28     65
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      4      1      3      1
DK/NA                28     25     30     31     23
 
 
3. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Paterson             41%     9%    66%    34%    42%    39%    31%    72%    49%
Lazio                37     74     18     37     39     35     46     11     22
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3      1      1      4      3      3      2      4      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      3      3      5      3      4      4      2      1
DK/NA                16     13     12     21     13     19     16     11     25
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Paterson             48%    30%    32%    58%    28%
Lazio                33     45     44     26     41
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       5      3      3      1      4
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      5      4      4      2      4
DK/NA                 9     18     17     12     22
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were David Paterson the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Dec 15  Oct 21
                     2009    2009
 
Paterson             41      38
Lazio                37      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       3       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4       6
DK/NA                16      16
 
 
4. If the 2010 election for Governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Cuomo                62%    26%    86%    58%    57%    66%    59%    74%    59%
Lazio                22     56      5     22     29     17     26     11     20
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1      1      -      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                14     17      7     17     12     15     13     13     18
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Cuomo                64%    57%    58%    71%    54%
Lazio                19     26     25     16     27
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      1      1      1      1
DK/NA                13     14     14     11     17
 
TREND: If the 2010 election for governor were being held today and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Rick Lazio the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Dec 15  Oct 21
                     2009    2009
 
Cuomo                62      61
Lazio                22      22
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1       2
DK/NA                14      13
 
 
5. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            57%    37%    71%    56%    54%    59%    58%    51%    55%
Unfavorable          14     31      5     13     19     11     16     12      6
Hvn't hrd enough     27     29     23     29     26     29     24     36     39
REFUSED               1      3      1      1      2      1      2      -      -
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            56%    56%    56%    60%    54%
Unfavorable          14     14     14     11     20
Hvn't hrd enough     29     28     28     27     25
REFUSED               2      2      2      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him? (*High also 63% Apr 2009 and Feb 2009)
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Dec 15  Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Jun 24  May 13
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009*   2009
 
Favorable            57      61      52      63      51      63      51
Unfavorable          14      13      12      15      13      15      13
Hvn't hrd enough     27      23      34      20      34      20      34
REFUSED               1       3       2       2       2       2       2
 
 
6. Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            38%    22%    49%    36%    42%    34%    31%    60%    55%
Unfavorable          44     65     32     44     41     46     53     17     28
Hvn't hrd enough     15     10     16     17     14     16     13     20     15
REFUSED               3      3      3      3      3      4      3      3      2
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            35%    31%    31%    49%    32%
Unfavorable          45     52     52     31     50
Hvn't hrd enough     17     13     14     18     14
REFUSED               3      3      3      3      4
 
TREND: Is your opinion of David Paterson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Dec 15  Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Jan 26  May 13
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            38      28      26      28      24      48      24
Unfavorable          44      52      53      54      55      25      55
Hvn't hrd enough     15      15      18      14      18      24      18
REFUSED               3       5       3       4       3       3       3
 
 
7. Is your opinion of Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            19%    39%     8%    20%    23%    15%    21%    12%    23%
Unfavorable          13      2     22     11     15     12     13     12     22
Hvn't hrd enough     67     58     69     68     61     72     66     76     54
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      -      1
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            16%    17%    17%    15%    27%
Unfavorable           8      8      8     18     15
Hvn't hrd enough     74     75     75     65     56
REFUSED               2      1      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rick Lazio favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Dec 15  Oct 21
                     2009    2009
 
Favorable            19      15
Unfavorable          13      13
Hvn't hrd enough     67      70
REFUSED               1       2
 
 
8. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Gillibrand           40%     4%    68%    32%    40%    40%    32%    70%    44%
Giuliani             50     92     23     57     53     48     58     17     47
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      1      -      1      1      1      1      1      2      -
DK/NA                 8      3      7      9      5     10      7      9      7
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Gillibrand           32%    33%    33%    54%    31%
Giuliani             56     57     57     36     61
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      1      2      1      1
DK/NA                 7      8      8      8      6
 
 
9. If the 2010 election for United States Senator were being held today and the candidates were William Thompson the Democrat and Rudy Giuliani the Republican, for whom would you vote?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Thompson             36%     3%    63%    28%    35%    37%    25%    76%    47%
Giuliani             52     92     25     60     56     49     63     15     42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      1      -      1      3
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      2      -      3      2      2      3      2      1      2
DK/NA                 9      4      8     10      6     11     10      8      6
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Thompson             22%    22%    22%    58%    27%
Giuliani             55     64     63     34     62
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      4      2      2      1      3
DK/NA                17     11     12      7      7
 
 
10. Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            26%    12%    34%    27%    28%    25%    28%    23%    29%
Unfavorable          15     26      7     16     17     13     17      7      8
Hvn't hrd enough     58     61     58     56     54     61     54     70     63
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      1      -      -
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            27%    35%    34%    24%    16%
Unfavorable          18     17     17     11     17
Hvn't hrd enough     55     47     48     64     66
REFUSED               -      2      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     Dec 15  Jun 24  Apr 6   Feb 17  Jan 26
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Favorable            26      25      24      24      25
Unfavorable          15      10      11       9      10
Hvn't hrd enough     58      63      64      65      63
REFUSED               1       2       1       1       1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of William Thompson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            25%     6%    45%    19%    27%    24%    14%    68%    39%
Unfavorable          10     15      6     11     13      8     12      2     10
Hvn't hrd enough     64     78     49     69     61     67     73     29     51
REFUSED               1      -      -      1      -      1      1      1      -
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            12%     8%     8%    52%    13%
Unfavorable           3      5      5     13     15
Hvn't hrd enough     85     87     86     34     72
REFUSED               -      1      1      1      -
 
 
12. Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Favorable            59%    91%    36%    67%    61%    57%    67%    27%    63%
Unfavorable          32      5     52     27     34     31     25     62     30
Hvn't hrd enough      7      3      9      5      4      9      7      6      5
REFUSED               2      1      3      1      1      2      1      5      2
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Favorable            62%    69%    68%    43%    69%
Unfavorable          18     19     19     50     29
Hvn't hrd enough     18     10     11      5      1
REFUSED               2      2      2      3      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Rudy Giuliani favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                                                             FAVORABLE.....
                                                             High    Low
                     Dec 15  Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Dec 15  Dec 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2007
 
Favorable            59      57      53      55      56      59      41
Unfavorable          32      32      33      36      32      32      40
Hvn't hrd enough      7       8      11       6      10       7      16
REFUSED               2       2       4       3       2       2       3
 
 
13. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              40%    27%    49%    38%    44%    36%    34%    55%    52%
Disapprove           49     67     39     50     47     51     58     27     34
DK/NA                11      6     12     12      8     13      8     18     14
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              38%    35%    35%    49%    34%
Disapprove           53     57     57     36     57
DK/NA                 9      8      8     15      9
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as governor? (*Low App also 28% Apr 2009 & May 2009 / ** High Dis also 61% May 2009)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Dec 15  Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  Aug 6   Jun 24  Jun 24
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2008    2009*   2009**
 
Approve              40      30      30      28      64      28      28
Disapprove           49      57      59      61      14      61      61
DK/NA                11      14      12      12      22      12      12
 
 
14. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              40%    22%    50%    40%    39%    41%    38%    52%    38%
Disapprove           21     37     12     20     26     16     25     10     11
DK/NA                39     40     38     40     35     42     37     38     51
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              39%    46%    45%    41%    29%
Disapprove           29     25     25     16     20
DK/NA                33     29     29     43     51
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                     Dec 15  Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  Apr 6   Feb 17
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              40      32      33      37      33      28
Disapprove           21      20      19      15      13      10
DK/NA                39      48      48      48      54      62
 
 
15. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              62%    41%    81%    57%    59%    64%    60%    77%    54%
Disapprove           27     46     12     32     35     21     30     11     33
DK/NA                11     13      6     11      6     15     10     12     13
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              64%    55%    56%    72%    56%
Disapprove           24     32     31     19     35
DK/NA                12     13     13      9      9
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator? (*High app also 69% Oct 2001)
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Dec 15  Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  Dec 8   Apr 15  Jan 20
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2004*   1999    2006
 
Approve              62      62      58      63      69      51      58
Disapprove           27      24      27      23      16      22      28
DK/NA                11      14      15      14      15      28      14
 
 
16. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              59%    19%    87%    55%    55%    62%    50%    88%    74%
Disapprove           36     76     10     38     40     33     44      7     23
DK/NA                 5      5      3      6      5      5      5      5      4
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     Dec 15  Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  Apr 6   Feb 19
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Approve              59      62      60      67      71      72
Disapprove           36      32      35      26      21      17
DK/NA                 5       6       6       7       7      10
 
 
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Approve              74%    61%    82%    76%    73%    74%    75%    67%    77%
Disapprove           12     25      6      9     15      9     12     17      7
DK/NA                14     14     11     15     12     16     13     15     15
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Approve              76%    73%    73%    75%    72%
Disapprove           10     13     12      9     16
DK/NA                14     15     14     15     12
 
TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                                                     APPROVE.......  DIS...
                                                     High    Low     High
                     Dec 15  Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  Feb 17  Feb 13  Jul 31
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2007    2007
 
Approve              74      71      74      73      76      42      68
Disapprove           12      11      10      12      11      16      19
DK/NA                14      18      17      14      13      42      14
 
 
20. Looking ahead to the 2010 election for Governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Wht    Blk    His
 
Yes/deserves         28%    14%    39%    26%    29%    27%    22%    51%    32%
No/does not          59     78     47     60     60     58     67     35     52
DK/NA                13      8     14     15     11     15     11     14     16
 
                     UpState.....  UpState
                     Urban  Othr   Total  NYC    Sub
 
Yes/deserves         29%    26%    26%    37%    18%
No/does not          64     63     63     47     69
DK/NA                 6     11     11     16     13
 
TREND: Looking ahead to the 2010 election for governor, do you feel that David Paterson deserves to be elected to a full 4-year term, or do you feel that he does not deserve to be elected to a full 4-year term?
                     Dec 15  Oct 21  Aug 16  Jun 24  May 13  Apr 6
                     2009    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
 
Yes/deserves         28      23      20      22      21      22
No/does not          59      63      67      64      64      63
DK/NA                13      13      13      13      15      16