September 22, 2010 - Paladino Trails Cuomo By 6 Points In New York Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Small Tea Party Movement Backs Republican 4-1

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Republican Carl Paladino, aided by a 4 -1 margin among Tea Partiers, trails New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic candidate for Governor, 49 - 43 percent among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Only 18 percent of New York State likely voters consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement, but they back Paladino 77 - 18 percent.

Cuomo leads 87 - 8 percent among Democrats while Paladino leads 83 - 13 percent among Republicans and 49 - 43 percent among independent voters, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. This first likely voter general election survey in New York in this election cycle can not be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.

Women back Cuomo 54 - 34 percent, while men go 49 percent for Paladino and 46 percent for Cuomo.

Seven percent of voters remain undecided and 21 percent of those who name a candidate say they might still change their mind.

New York State likely voters approve 67 - 25 percent of the job Cuomo is doing as Attorney General and by 51 - 34 percent, they have a favorable opinion of him.

Paladino gets a 36 - 31 percent favorability and 31 percent of voters don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

"The question was whether Carl Paladino would get a bounce from his big Republican primary victory. The answer is yes. He's within shouting distance and - you can count on it - he will be shouting," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Attorney General Andrew Cuomo might be a victim of his own excess. Politicians and polls have depicted him so relentlessly as a sure thing that he might be a victim of the 'throw the bums out' attitude that hits incumbents in this angry year," Carroll added.

"In other Quinnipiac University polls, we have found that the shift from registered voters to likely voters favors Republicans as more conservative voters are more energized to vote right now."

When asked which quality matters most in picking a candidate for governor, 41 percent of New York State likely voters want a candidate who "can bring about needed change to Albany." Another 22 percent want someone who shares their values, while 21 percent want someone honest and trustworthy and 10 percent want someone with the right experience.

"There's a Paladino plus: Forty percent of New Yorkers say the most important trait in a candidate is that he'll 'bring change,'" Carroll said. "But there's a Paladino minus when we ask about the Tea Party. Only 18 percent of voters identify with it."

From September 16 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 751 New York State likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Carl Paladino the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cuomo or Paladino? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Cuomo                49     13     87     43     46     54     18     57
Paladino             43     83      8     49     49     34     77     35
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      -      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      3      5      8      4     12      5      6
 
 
1a. (If candidate choice q1) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    AC     CP
 
Made up              79     77     81
Might change         21     23     18
DK/NA                 1      -      1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of - Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            51     24     82     43     47     55     26     56
Unfavorable          34     59     11     38     40     26     58     30
Hvn't hrd enough     13     15      6     14      9     17     13     13
REFUSED               2      1      1      4      3      2      3      2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of - Carl Paladino favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            36     64     11     42     40     30     64     30
Unfavorable          31      4     58     24     33     28      4     39
Hvn't hrd enough     31     32     28     31     26     38     28     30
REFUSED               2      -      3      3      1      3      4      1
 
 
10. Which one of these four qualities matter most in deciding how you vote for Governor? The candidate is honest and trustworthy, has the right experience, can bring about needed change to Albany or shares your values?
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Honest/Trustworthy   21     19     23     20     20     24     23     22
Right experience     10      6     17      9     10     11     10     11
Brings change        41     50     32     45     41     42     42     41
Shares values        22     23     23     20     25     18     22     21
DK/NA                 5      3      5      6      4      6      3      5
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              67     46     89     62     64     71
Disapprove           25     38      8     31     30     19
DK/NA                 8     15      3      7      6     11
 
 
22. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea party movement or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  18     34      5     18     18     17
No                   79     63     91     79     78     80
DK/NA                 4      3      5      3      4      3