September 23, 2010 - Little-Known New York Attorney General Candidates Tied, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Gillibrand Up By Only 6 Points

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Two little-known candidates for New York State Attorney General, Democratic State Sen. Eric Schneiderman and Republican Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan, are tied among likely voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Schneiderman gets 37 percent to Donovan's 36 percent, with 27 percent undecided, the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University survey, conducted by live interviewers, finds. And 46 percent of those who name a candidate say they might change their mind. This first likely voter general election survey in New York in this election cycle can not be compared with earlier surveys of registered voters.

Among likely voters, 77 percent say they don't know enough about Schneiderman to form an opinion and 86 percent don't know enough about Donovan.

Democrats back Schneiderman 71 - 9 percent while Donovan leads 76 - 6 percent among Republicans and 33 - 25 percent among independent voters.

"State Sen. Eric Schneiderman and District Attorney Dan Donovan both will try to get better acquainted with the voters and perhaps try to define 'the other guy' in a negative fashion," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"In the past, New Yorkers tended to split their ticket, voting for at least one statewide official from a party other than the governor's party, so this race is anybody's guess."

In the U.S. Senate race, Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops Republican Joseph DioGuardi 48 - 42 percent.

Sen. Gillibrand leads 86 - 9 percent among Democrats while DioGuardi leads 88 - 8 percent among Republicans. Independent voters split with 42 percent for DioGuardi and 41 percent for Gillibrand.

New York State voters approve 49 - 37 percent of the job Gillibrand is doing and give her a 43 - 32 percent favorability rating. For DioGuardi, 61 percent haven't heard enough about him to form an opinion.

Democratic U.S. Sen. Charles Schumer leads his little-known Republican challenger, Jay Townsend, 54 - 38 percent.

Voters approve 55 - 39 percent of the job Schumer is doing and give him a 55 - 37 percent favorability. For Townsend, 70 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

"New York has two Democratic U.S. Senators and the numbers suggest it's likely to stay that way," Carroll said.

"Sen. Charles Schumer has a commanding lead and Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand is closing in on the magic 50 percent point. But DioGuardi makes a race of it against her, even though three-fifths of New Yorkers don't know much about him."

Democratic State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli leads Republican challenger Harry Wilson 46 - 30 percent with 24 percent undecided and 40 percent who might change their mind.

Likely voters know little about these candidates: 66 percent haven't formed an opinion about DiNapoli and 91 percent haven't formed an opinion of Wilson.

President Obama's Approval

New York State likely voters give President Barack Obama a split 47 - 48 percent job approval rating. Democrats approve 83 - 10 percent, but the President gets a 93 - 7 percent disapproval from Republicans and a 53 - 43 percent thumbs down from independent voters.

"As they battle for the Governor's Mansion, the U.S. Senate seats and the Comptroller and Attorney General jobs, New York Democrats should not count on President Obama's popularity to help them," Carroll said.

From September 16 - 20, Quinnipiac University surveyed 751 New York State likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Joe DioGuardi the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Gillibrand or DioGuardi? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Gillibrand           48      8     86     41     43     53     23     54
DioGuardi            42     88      9     42     45     37     75     34
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      -      -      5      2      -      -      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9      4      6     12      9     10      2      9
 
 
4a. (If candidate choice q4) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                            CAND CHOICE Q4
                     Tot    KG     JD
 
Made up              75     76     73
Might change         25     24     26
DK/NA                 -      -      1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            43     14     71     36     40     46     25     47
Unfavorable          32     64      7     38     38     24     56     27
Hvn't hrd enough     24     20     22     25     21     29     19     25
REFUSED               1      2      -      2      1      2      1      1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - Joe DioGuardi favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            26     59     11     23     27     25     45     21
Unfavorable          12      2     20      7     12     11      2     14
Hvn't hrd enough     61     38     67     68     61     61     52     63
REFUSED               2      1      2      2      1      3      -      2
 
 
7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Jay Townsend the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schumer or Townsend? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Schumer              54     13     92     49     49     61     20     63
Townsend             38     83      2     42     46     29     76     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      1      1      1      -      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 7      4      5      8      5     10      4      6
 
 
7a. (If candidate choice q7) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                            CAND CHOICE Q7
                     Tot    CS     JT
 
Made up              81     79     84
Might change         19     21     16
DK/NA                 -      -      -
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - Charles Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            55     19     90     50     50     61     22     62
Unfavorable          37     75      5     41     44     27     67     31
Hvn't hrd enough      8      6      5      7      5     11     10      7
REFUSED               1      -      -      2      1      1      -      1
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - Jay Townsend favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            21     46      6     18     23     18     31     18
Unfavorable           9      3     16      6      8     10      4     10
Hvn't hrd enough     70     51     77     76     68     72     65     71
REFUSED               1      -      1      1      1      1      -      1
 
 
11. Is your opinion of - Eric Schneiderman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            14      6     23      9     14     13      8     16
Unfavorable           9     10      8      9     10      7      8      9
Hvn't hrd enough     77     84     68     82     76     78     84     75
REFUSED               1      -      1      -      -      1      -      0
 
 
12. Is your opinion of - Dan Donovan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable             9     13      9      7     10      7     11      8
Unfavorable           5      4      7      2      6      3      -      6
Hvn't hrd enough     86     81     84     90     83     89     89     85
REFUSED               1      1      1      1      1      1      -      1
 
 
13. If the election for State Attorney General were being held today, and the candidates were Eric Schneiderman the Democrat and Dan Donovan the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schneiderman or Donovan? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Schneiderman         37      6     71     25     31     43     10     43
Donovan              36     76      9     33     41     29     64     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      -      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                27     18     20     41     27     27     26     26
 
 
13a. (If candidate choice q13) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                            CAND CHOICE Q13
                     Tot    ES     DD
 
Made up              52     53     51
Might change         46     44     48
DK/NA                 2      3      1
 
 
14. Is your opinion of - Thomas DiNapoli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable            21     19     23     23     21     21     17     21
Unfavorable          11     14      9     12     15      7     11     12
Hvn't hrd enough     66     67     66     64     64     70     72     66
REFUSED               1      -      2      1      1      2      -      1
 
 
15. Is your opinion of - Harry Wilson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
Favorable             7      7      3     12      9      4     12      6
Unfavorable           1      -      2      -      1      2      1      1
Hvn't hrd enough     91     91     94     86     89     93     85     93
REFUSED               1      2      -      1      1      1      2      1
 
 
16. If the election for State Comptroller were being held today, and the candidates were Thomas DiNapoli the Democrat and Harry Wilson the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for DiNapoli or Wilson? This table includes "Leaners".
                     LIKELY VOTERS .......................................
                                                               TEA PARTY Q22
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom    Yes    No
 
DiNapoli             46     21     72     38     43     48     27     50
Wilson               30     58      6     35     36     23     54     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                24     21     22     27     20     28     19     24
 
 
16a. (If candidate choice q16) Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                            CAND CHOICE Q16
                     Tot    TD     HW
 
Made up              60     58     62
Might change         40     41     37
DK/NA                 1      -      1
 
 
17a. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              37     31     43     39     41     32
Disapprove           58     67     48     58     56     60
DK/NA                 5      2      9      2      3      8
17. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              49     20     82     38     46     53
Disapprove           37     66      8     44     43     30
DK/NA                14     14      9     18     11     18
 
 
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              55     25     92     48     51     60
Disapprove           39     73      5     46     44     32
DK/NA                 6      3      3      6      5      7
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as president?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              47      7     83     43     44     51
Disapprove           48     93     10     53     51     45
DK/NA                 4      -      7      4      4      4
 
 
21. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in New York State today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Very satisfied        2      -      4      -      3      1
Smwht satisfied      18      5     31     15     15     22
Smwht dissatisfied   29     28     33     25     26     33
Very dissatisfied    50     67     30     59     55     43
DK/NA                 1      -      2      1      -      2
 
 
22. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea party movement or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  18     34      5     18     18     17
No                   79     63     91     79     78     80
DK/NA                 4      3      5      3      4      3