October 7, 2010 - Cuomo Pulls Away From Paladino In New York Gov Race, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Many Voters 'Angry' At State Government

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Despite his lead among the many New York State likely voters angry with state government, Republican Carl Paladino is falling behind New York State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo, the Democratic candidate for governor, and now trails 55 - 37 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

This compares to a 49 - 43 percent Cuomo lead in a September 22 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, conducted one week after Paladino's landslide Republican primary win.

In today's survey, Cuomo leads 86 - 11 percent among Democrats and 47 - 42 percent among independent voters. Republicans back Paladino 69 - 23 percent. The 15 percent of likely voters who consider themselves part of the Tea Party movement back Paladino 79 - 15 percent.

Describing their feelings about New York State government:
  • 45 percent of likely voters say they are angry;
  • 42 percent say they are dissatisfied;
  • 12 percent say they are satisfied;
  • 1 percent say they are enthusiastic.
Paladino leads Cuomo among these angry voters 50 - 41 percent.

"Lots of New Yorkers are fed up with state government. Those who say they are angry go for Carl Paladino - but not by all that much. Attorney General Andrew Cuomo gets the votes of 41 percent of the angry people," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

"Since Quinnipiac University's last poll two weeks ago, it's been a looney-tunes time for Paladino in the news media - one time in a face-to-face fight with a reporter - and it shows."

"Cuomo moves into a double-digit lead," Carroll added. "After the dust settled from Paladino's big primary win, the big switch was in the independent vote - a small edge for Paladino two weeks ago turns into a small edge for Cuomo this time."

New York State likely voters approve 72 - 22 percent of the job Cuomo is doing as Attorney General and by a 53 - 34 percent margin have a favorable opinion of him. Voters say 67 - 24 percent that Cuomo has the right personality to be governor.

By a 49 - 33 percent margin, likely voters have an unfavorable opinion of Paladino, with 15 percent who do not know enough about him to form an opinion. This is a big drop from September 22, when Paladino had a positive 36 - 31 percent favorability, with 31 percent who did not know enough about him.

Voters also say 54 - 30 percent that he does not have the right personality to be governor.

"Paladino's 'angry man' style gets a lot of attention, but he comes up negative on the personality test. Less than a third of New Yorkers think he's right for the governor's job. Two- thirds say Cuomo is 'Mr. Personality,'" Carroll said.

President Obama, Gov. Paterson Approval

New York State likely voters approve 53 - 45 percent of the job President Barack Obama is doing, barely above 50 percent but better that the president's approval rating in Quinnipiac University likely voter surveys in other states in the last month.

Voters disapprove 55 - 37 percent of the job Gov. David Paterson is doing. Even Democrats disapprove 50 - 40 percent.

"Just for the record, note that Gov. David Paterson is still in the doghouse with voters. President Barack Obama, boosted by a 55 percent approval rating among women, holds just about the halfway mark," Carroll said.

From October 1 - 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,141 New York State likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

1. If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Carl Paladino the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cuomo or Paladino? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Cuomo                55%    23%    86%    47%    47%    63%
Paladino             37     69     11     42     46     28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      1      4      2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 6      7      3      7      5      8
 
                     RATING ECONOMY Q24   PrtOf  Angry with
                     Better Worse  Same   TeaPt  StateGovQ27
 
Cuomo                81%    33%    67%    15%    41%
Paladino             14     59     26     79     50
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      3      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 5      7      5      5      6
 
TREND: If the election for governor were being held today, and the candidates were Andrew Cuomo the Democrat and Carl Paladino the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Cuomo or Paladino? (This table includes Leaners.)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 07 Sep 22
                     2010   2010
 
Cuomo                55     49
Paladino             37     43
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -
DK/NA                 6      7
 
 
1a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                            CAND CHOICE Q1
                     Tot    AC     CP
 
Made up              84%    85%    81%
Might change         15     13     18
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
2. Is your opinion of Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            53%    24%    80%    44%    47%    59%
Unfavorable          34     63     12     36     41     27
Hvn't hrd enough     10     11      7     14     10     10
REFUSED               3      2      1      6      2      4
 
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Andrew Cuomo favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 07 Sep 22
                     2010   2010
 
Favorable            53     51
Unfavorable          34     34
Hvn't hrd enough     10     13
REFUSED               3      2
 
 
3. Is your opinion of Carl Paladino favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            33%    59%    12%    36%    44%    23%
Unfavorable          49     21     73     43     44     54
Hvn't hrd enough     15     18     13     16     10     20
REFUSED               3      1      2      5      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of - Carl Paladino favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 07  Sep 22
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            33      36
Unfavorable          49      31
Hvn't hrd enough     15      31
REFUSED               3       2
 
 
10. Do you think Carl Paladino has the right personality to be governor or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  30%    52%    11%    35%    39%    22%
No                   54     29     77     49     49     59
DK/NA                15     19     12     17     12     18
 
 
11. Do you think Andrew Cuomo has the right personality to be governor or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  67%    50%    85%    63%    64%    69%
No                   24     37      9     27     29     19
DK/NA                 9     13      6     10      7     11
 
 
18. Do you approve or disapprove of the way David Paterson is handling his job as Governor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              37%    36%    40%    36%    40%    33%
Disapprove           55     59     50     57     53     56
 
 
21. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Andrew Cuomo is handling his job as State Attorney General?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              72%    52%    89%    70%    66%    78%
Disapprove           22     41      7     24     30     15
DK/NA                 6      8      4      6      5      7
 
 
22. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              53%    17%    86%    43%    50%    55%
Disapprove           45     82     11     53     48     41
DK/NA                 3      1      3      4      2      4
 
                     RATING ECONOMY Q24
                     Better Worse  Same
 
Approve              88%    27%    64%
Disapprove           10     70     32
DK/NA                 2      2      4
 
 
23. Would you describe the state of New York State's economy these days as; excellent, good, not so good, or poor?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Excellent             0%     -      1%     -      0%     1%
Good                  9      1     15      7      7     11
Not so good          37     32     46     33     40     35
Poor                 52     67     36     59     53     52
DK/NA                 1      -      1      1      1      1
 
 
24. Do you think New York State's economy is getting better, getting worse, or staying about the same?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Better               13%     4%    20%     9%    13%    12%
Worse                39     55     23     44     40     39
The same             46     41     53     43     46     46
DK/NA                 2      -      3      4      2      3
 
 
25. Do you consider yourself part of the Tea party movement or not?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Yes                  15%    28%     4%    19%    17%    14%
No                   80     68     92     76     79     81
DK/NA                 5      5      4      5      4      5
 
 
27. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the state government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Enthusiastic,         1%     -      1%     -      -      1%
Sat/Not enthusiastic 12      6     21      6     10     13
Dis/Not angry        42     40     46     38     41     42
Angry                45     52     30     56     48     42
DK/NA                 1      2      1      -      1      1