October 8, 2010 - Despite Anger At D.C., Dems Lead In All New York Races, Quinnipiac University Poll Finds; Women Propel Gillibrand To Double-Digit Lead

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Democrats are surging in all New York statewide races as little-known Republican candidates struggle for name recognition, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand tops the magic 50 percent mark, leading Republican challenger Joseph DioGuardi 55 - 34 percent, compared to a 48 - 42 percent Gillibrand lead in a September 23 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Gillibrand leads 59 - 28 percent among women and 51 - 39 percent among men.

Describing their feelings about the federal government:
  • 30 percent of likely voters say they are angry;
  • 43 percent say they are dissatisfied;
  • 23 percent say they are satisfied;
  • 2 percent say they are enthusiastic. DioGuardi leads Gillibrand among these angry voters 59 - 29 percent.
New York State likely voters approve 52 - 34 percent of the job Gillibrand is doing and give her a 49 - 24 percent favorability rating.

For DioGuardi, 61 percent don't know enough about him to form an opinion.

Sen. Charles Schumer tops Republican challenger Jay Townsend 63 - 32 percent. The Democrat gets a 64 - 33 percent approval rating and a 62 - 31 percent favorability score, while 65 percent haven't heard enough about Townsend to form an opinion.

"If Republicans are going to take back the U.S. Senate, it doesn't look as if New York will be much help. Both New York seats are on the ballot and Gillibrand and Schumer have comfortable leads," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

In the closest statewide race in New York, the race for State Attorney General, New York State likely voters back Democratic State Sen. Eric Schneiderman 43 - 32 percent over Staten Island District Attorney Dan Donovan. But 24 percent of voters are undecided and 39 percent of those who select a candidate say they might change their mind by Election Day.

Neither candidate is well known: 75 percent of voters don't know enough about Schneiderman to form an opinion and 85 percent don't know enough about Donovan.

Democratic State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli leads Republican challenger Harry Wilson 49 - 31 percent, with 20 percent undecided and 38 percent who might change their mind.

Ninety percent of voters don't know enough about Wilson to form an opinion, compared to 65 percent who don't know enough about DiNapoli.

"There seems to be about a one-third generic Republican vote. All the Republican candidates for New York statewide office are within a couple of points of it," Carroll said.

"Harry Wilson wins the anonymity prize. Nine out of ten of New Yorkers don't know enough about him to give a thumbs-up or thumbs-down rating. But you have to wonder if anybody is paying attention. Even Sen. Eric Schneiderman and State Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli come up short on public recognition."

From October 1 - 5, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,141 New York State likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9 percentage points.

The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida, Ohio and nationwide as a public service and for research. For more data or RSS feed- http://www.quinnipiac.edu/polling.xml, call (203) 582-5201, or follow us on Twitter.

4. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Joe DioGuardi the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Gillibrand or DioGuardi? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Gillibrand           55%    20%    87%    49%    51%    59%
DioGuardi            34     72      6     36     39     28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      1      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                11      9      7     14      9     12
 
                     RATING ECONOMY Q24   PrtOf  Angry with
                     Better Worse  Same   TeaPt  FedGovQ26
 
Gillibrand           81%    35%    66%    19%    29%
DioGuardi            11     54     23     64     59
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 8     11     10     17     12
 
                     UpSt   NYC    Sub
 
Gillibrand           53%    63%    48%
DioGuardi            38     24     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      -      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                 9     13     13
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Kirsten Gillibrand the Democrat and Joe DioGuardi the Republican,for whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Gillibrand or DioGuardi? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010
 
Gillibrand           55      48
DioGuardi            34      42
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -       2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -
DK/NA                11       9
 
 
4a.Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                            CAND CHOICE Q4
                     Tot    KG     JD
 
Made up              77%    76%    79%
Might change         22     24     20
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
5. Is your opinion of - Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            49%    29%    74%    37%    46%    52%
Unfavorable          24     44      6     29     32     17
Hvn't hrd enough     24     25     19     30     20     28
REFUSED               3      1      1      4      2      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Kirsten Gillibrand favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about her?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            49      43
Unfavorable          24      32
Hvn't hrd enough     24      24
REFUSED               3       1
 
 
6. Is your opinion of - Joe DioGuardi favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            27%    48%    11%    28%    32%    22%
Unfavorable          11      4     16     11     10     12
Hvn't hrd enough     61     48     71     60     57     64
REFUSED               2      -      2      1      2      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Joe DioGuardi favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            27      26
Unfavorable          11      12
Hvn't hrd enough     61      61
REFUSED               2       2
 
 
7. If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Jay Townsend the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schumer or Townsend? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Schumer              63%    28%    94%    56%    59%    68%
Townsend             32     69      4     37     38     26
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      1      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      3      2      6      3      5
 
                     RATING ECONOMY Q24   PrtOf  Angry with
                     Better Worse  Same   TeaPt  FedGovQ26
 
Schumer              90%    42%    75%    23%    29%
Townsend              7     53     22     75     66
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      1      -      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                 2      4      3      3      4
 
                     UpSt   NYC    Sub
 
Schumer              58%    74%    57%
Townsend             37     23     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       -      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                 4      2      6
 
TREND: If the election for United States Senator were being held today, and the candidates were Charles Schumer the Democrat and Jay Townsend the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schumer or Townsend? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010
 
Schumer              63      54
Townsend             32      38
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -
DK/NA                 4       7
 
 
7a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                            CAND CHOICE Q7
                     Tot    CS     JT
 
Made up              85%    85%    84%
Might change         14     14     15
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
8. Is your opinion of - Charles Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            62%    29%    92%    54%    55%    69%
Unfavorable          31     62      4     37     39     23
Hvn't hrd enough      5      6      4      7      5      6
REFUSED               1      3      1      2      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Charles Schumer favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            62      55
Unfavorable          31      37
Hvn't hrd enough      5       8
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
9. Is your opinion of - Jay Townsend favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            22%    42%     7%    24%    27%    17%
Unfavorable          12      3     18     10     11     12
Hvn't hrd enough     65     54     74     64     60     70
REFUSED               1      2      -      1      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Jay Townsend favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            22      21
Unfavorable          12       9
Hvn't hrd enough     65      70
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
12. Is your opinion of - Eric Schneiderman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            17%     9%    31%     8%    17%    17%
Unfavorable           7      8      3      8      9      5
Hvn't hrd enough     75     82     65     81     74     76
REFUSED               1      1      -      3      -      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Eric Schneiderman favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            17      14
Unfavorable           7       9
Hvn't hrd enough     75      77
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
13. Is your opinion of - Dan Donovan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             9%    15%     8%     6%    10%     9%
Unfavorable           4      4      4      4      7      2
Hvn't hrd enough     85     79     87     90     83     87
REFUSED               2      3      1      1      1      2
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Dan Donovan favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable             9       9
Unfavorable           4       5
Hvn't hrd enough     85      86
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
14. If the election for State Attorney General were being held today, and the candidates were Eric Schneiderman the Democrat and Dan Donovan the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schneiderman or Donovan? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Schneiderman         43%    12%    76%    30%    40%    46%
Donovan              32     67      7     36     36     28
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      3      2      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                24     21     16     31     22     25
 
                     UpSt   NYC    Sub
 
Schneiderman         37%    54%    40%
Donovan              35     24     39
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1      2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                28     21     20
 
TREND: If the election for State Attorney General were being held today, and the candidates were Eric Schneiderman the Democrat and Dan Donovan the Republican, for whom would you vote?(If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for Schneiderman or Donovan? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 08 Sep 23
                     2010   2010
 
Schneiderman         43     37
Donovan              32     36
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -
DK/NA                24     27
 
 
14a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                            CAND CHOICE Q14
                     Tot    ES     DD
 
Made up              60%    60%    60%
Might change         39     40     39
DK/NA                 1      1      1
 
 
15. Is your opinion of - Thomas DiNapoli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable            23%    18%    27%    21%    26%    20%
Unfavorable          11     14     10     10     15      7
Hvn't hrd enough     65     67     63     64     58     71
REFUSED               2      1      -      4      1      3
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Thomas DiNapoli favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable            23      21
Unfavorable          11      11
Hvn't hrd enough     65      66
REFUSED               2       1
 
 
16. Is your opinion of - Harry Wilson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Favorable             7%     9%     7%     6%     9%     6%
Unfavorable           3      1      3      2      4      1
Hvn't hrd enough     90     90     89     91     87     93
REFUSED               1      -      -      1      1
 
TREND: Is your opinion of Harry Wilson favorable, unfavorable or haven't you heard enough about him?
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010
 
Favorable             7       7
Unfavorable           3       1
Hvn't hrd enough     90      91
REFUSED               1       1
 
 
17. If the election for State Comptroller were being held today, and the candidates were Thomas DiNapoli the Democrat and Harry Wilson the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for DiNapoli or Wilson? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
DiNapoli             49%    17%    80%    38%    46%    51%
Wilson               31     65      7     34     37     24
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1      -      -      2      1      1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -      -      -      -
DK/NA                20     19     13     27     16     23
 
                     UpSt   NYC    Sub
 
DiNapoli             41%    54%    55%
Wilson               37     23     30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       2      1      -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -      -      -
DK/NA                20     23     14
 
TREND. If the election for State Comptroller were being held today, and the candidates were Thomas DiNapoli the Democrat and Harry Wilson the Republican, for whom would you vote? (If undecided) If you had to choose today, would you vote for DiNapoli or Wilson? (This table includes Leaners)
                     LIKELY VOTERS..
                     Oct 08  Sep 23
                     2010    2010
 
DiNapoli             49      46
Wilson               31      30
SMONE ELSE(VOL)       1       -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL)      -       -
DK/NA                20      24
 
 
17a. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the election?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........
                            CAND CHOICE Q17
                     Tot    TD     HW
 
Made up              60%    60%    61%
Might change         38     39     37
DK/NA                 1      1      2
 
 
19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Kirsten Gillibrand is handling her job as United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              52%    28%    78%    46%    46%    58%
Disapprove           34     61     12     40     41     27
DK/NA                14     11     10     14     13     15
 
 
20. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Charles Schumer is handling his job as United States Senator?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Approve              64%    33%    92%    57%    58%    71%
Disapprove           33     63      6     39     40     25
DK/NA                 3      4      2      4      2      4
 
 
26. I am going to mention four phrases and ask you which one best describes how you feel about the way the federal government works. Do you feel enthusiastic, satisfied but not enthusiastic, dissatisfied but not angry, or angry?
                     LIKELY VOTERS.........................
                     Tot    Rep    Dem    Ind    Men    Wom
 
Enthusiastic          2%     -      5%     1%     1%     3%
Sat/Not enthusiastic 23     11     37     15     21     24
Dis/Not angry        43     45     45     41     43     44
Angry                30     44     12     40     35     26
DK/NA                 1      -      1      4      1      2